COP riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan ConocoPhillips
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan93
Tutup dalam rentang66%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi66%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±4.5%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|3.5%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut2.0pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 146.74 | ±1.0% | 145.23–148.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 141.92 | ±2.0% | 139.13–144.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 140.76 | ±2.4% | 137.34–144.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 134.51 | ±3.1% | 130.28–138.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 133.63 | ±3.6% | 128.83–138.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 128.69 | ±3.9% | 123.72–133.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 129.35 | ±3.9% | 124.28–134.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 128.40 | ±4.3% | 122.94–133.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 126.75 | ±4.6% | 120.97–132.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 126.96 | ±4.9% | 120.69–133.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 125.38 | ±6.3% | 117.45–133.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 125.56 | ±6.3% | 117.66–133.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 128.00 | ±6.5% | 119.70–136.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 131.91 | ±6.7% | 123.06–140.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 133.19 | ±7.0% | 123.86–142.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 132.63 | ±7.5% | 122.73–142.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 141.55 | ±7.8% | 130.57–152.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 136.80 | ±7.5% | 126.58–147.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 137.32 | ±7.8% | 126.67–147.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 137.04 | ±7.8% | 126.31–147.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 136.87 | ±7.9% | 126.09–147.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 135.20 | ±8.0% | 124.43–145.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 134.26 | ±7.9% | 123.61–144.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 134.72 | ±8.0% | 123.94–145.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 135.84 | ±8.1% | 124.82–146.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 137.10 | ±8.5% | 125.47–148.72 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 136.21 | ±8.7% | 124.41–148.01 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 131.67 | ±8.5% | 120.50–142.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 146.74 | ±3.7% | 141.32–152.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 141.92 | ±4.0% | 136.24–147.60 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | di dalam | 134.51 → 134.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +0.4% | di dalam | 133.63 → 134.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +4.2% | di luar | 128.69 → 134.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | +3.7% | di luar | 129.35 → 134.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.4% | di luar | 128.40 → 134.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | +5.8% | di luar | 126.75 → 134.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.6% | di luar | 126.96 → 134.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +7.0% | di luar | 125.38 → 134.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +6.8% | di luar | 125.56 → 134.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +4.8% | di dalam | 128.00 → 134.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +1.7% | di dalam | 131.91 → 134.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +0.7% | di dalam | 133.19 → 134.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +1.1% | di dalam | 132.63 → 134.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -5.3% | di dalam | 141.55 → 134.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -2.0% | di dalam | 136.80 → 134.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -2.3% | di dalam | 137.32 → 134.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -2.1% | di dalam | 137.04 → 134.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -2.0% | di dalam | 136.87 → 134.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -0.8% | di dalam | 135.20 → 134.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -0.1% | di dalam | 134.26 → 134.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -0.5% | di dalam | 134.72 → 134.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -1.3% | di dalam | 135.84 → 134.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -2.2% | di dalam | 137.10 → 134.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -1.5% | di dalam | 136.21 → 134.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | +1.8% | di dalam | 131.67 → 134.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | di dalam | 126.75 → 126.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.5% | -0.2% | di dalam | 126.96 → 126.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +1.1% | di dalam | 125.38 → 126.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.2% | +0.9% | di dalam | 125.56 → 126.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.0% | di dalam | 128.00 → 126.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -3.9% | di dalam | 131.91 → 126.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -4.8% | di dalam | 133.19 → 126.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | -4.4% | di dalam | 132.63 → 126.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -10.5% | di luar | 141.55 → 126.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -7.3% | di luar | 136.80 → 126.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -7.7% | di luar | 137.32 → 126.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -7.5% | di luar | 137.04 → 126.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -7.4% | di luar | 136.87 → 126.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -6.3% | di dalam | 135.20 → 126.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -5.6% | di dalam | 134.26 → 126.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -5.9% | di dalam | 134.72 → 126.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -6.7% | di luar | 135.84 → 126.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -7.5% | di luar | 137.10 → 126.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -6.9% | di dalam | 136.21 → 126.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -3.7% | di dalam | 131.67 → 126.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.6% | +1.5% | di dalam | 125.38 → 127.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | +1.4% | di dalam | 125.56 → 127.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -0.5% | di dalam | 128.00 → 127.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -3.5% | di luar | 131.91 → 127.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -4.4% | di luar | 133.19 → 127.30 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -4.0% | di dalam | 132.63 → 127.30 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | -10.1% | di luar | 141.55 → 127.30 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | -6.9% | di luar | 136.80 → 127.30 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -7.3% | di luar | 137.32 → 127.30 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.0% | -7.1% | di luar | 137.04 → 127.30 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.3% | -7.0% | di luar | 136.87 → 127.30 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -5.8% | di luar | 135.20 → 127.30 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -5.2% | di dalam | 134.26 → 127.30 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -5.5% | di luar | 134.72 → 127.30 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -6.3% | di luar | 135.84 → 127.30 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.