COIN historial de movimiento esperado Coinbase Global, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango81%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado81%
Movimiento esperado promedio±10.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.5%
Error medio abs.5.9pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 169.25 | ±5.7% | 159.53–178.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 173.51 | ±7.4% | 160.71–186.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 172.60 | ±7.8% | 159.07–186.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 181.70 | ±8.1% | 167.05–196.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 179.84 | ±8.8% | 163.99–195.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 173.10 | ±9.2% | 157.20–189.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 178.64 | ±9.1% | 162.31–194.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 186.32 | ±9.9% | 167.84–204.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 188.10 | ±10.1% | 169.03–207.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 183.00 | ±10.5% | 163.72–202.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 189.00 | ±11.8% | 166.73–211.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 200.77 | ±14.9% | 170.85–230.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 200.11 | ±15.0% | 170.18–230.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 202.05 | ±15.8% | 170.22–233.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 194.00 | ±16.1% | 162.75–225.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 173.35 | ±15.2% | 146.93–199.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 165.41 | ±16.2% | 138.64–192.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 171.32 | ±17.0% | 142.17–200.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 190.09 | ±17.8% | 156.19–223.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 175.42 | ±17.9% | 143.97–206.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 172.08 | ±17.9% | 141.23–202.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 175.20 | ±18.2% | 143.38–207.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 179.37 | ±18.7% | 145.77–212.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 184.80 | ±19.8% | 148.15–221.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 184.77 | ±19.8% | 148.12–221.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 192.40 | ±19.5% | 154.97–229.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 169.25 | ±11.1% | 150.53–187.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 173.51 | ±12.3% | 152.09–194.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 172.60 | ±11.4% | 152.90–192.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 181.70 | ±11.2% | 161.43–201.97 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 173.51 → 173.16 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 172.60 → 173.16 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -4.7% | dentro | 181.70 → 173.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -3.7% | dentro | 179.84 → 173.16 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 173.10 → 173.16 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -3.1% | dentro | 178.64 → 173.16 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -7.1% | dentro | 186.32 → 173.16 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -7.9% | dentro | 188.10 → 173.16 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -5.4% | dentro | 183.00 → 173.16 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -8.4% | dentro | 189.00 → 173.16 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -13.8% | fuera | 200.77 → 173.16 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -13.5% | fuera | 200.11 → 173.16 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -14.3% | fuera | 202.05 → 173.16 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -10.7% | dentro | 194.00 → 173.16 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -0.1% | dentro | 173.35 → 173.16 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.3% | +4.7% | dentro | 165.41 → 173.16 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | +1.1% | dentro | 171.32 → 173.16 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | -8.9% | dentro | 190.09 → 173.16 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -1.3% | dentro | 175.42 → 173.16 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 172.08 → 173.16 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 175.20 → 173.16 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.4% | -3.5% | dentro | 179.37 → 173.16 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 184.80 → 173.16 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.6% | -6.3% | dentro | 184.77 → 173.16 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.1% | -10.0% | dentro | 192.40 → 173.16 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 175.41 → 173.16 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.6% | -1.9% | dentro | 176.51 → 173.16 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±18.7% | -7.9% | dentro | 188.05 → 173.16 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 179.84 → 179.39 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +3.6% | fuera | 173.10 → 179.39 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 178.64 → 179.39 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 186.32 → 179.39 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -4.6% | dentro | 188.10 → 179.39 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 183.00 → 179.39 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -5.1% | dentro | 189.00 → 179.39 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.0% | -10.7% | dentro | 200.77 → 179.39 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | -10.4% | dentro | 200.11 → 179.39 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -11.2% | dentro | 202.05 → 179.39 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -7.5% | dentro | 194.00 → 179.39 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 173.35 → 179.39 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +8.5% | dentro | 165.41 → 179.39 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +4.7% | dentro | 171.32 → 179.39 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | -5.6% | dentro | 190.09 → 179.39 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +2.3% | dentro | 175.42 → 179.39 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +4.2% | dentro | 172.08 → 179.39 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 175.20 → 179.39 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 179.37 → 179.39 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 184.80 → 179.39 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 184.77 → 179.39 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.4% | -6.8% | dentro | 192.40 → 179.39 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.8% | +2.3% | dentro | 175.41 → 179.39 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.5% | +1.6% | dentro | 176.51 → 179.39 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.0% | -4.6% | dentro | 188.05 → 179.39 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 183.00 → 183.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.9% | -3.2% | fuera | 189.00 → 183.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -8.9% | fuera | 200.77 → 183.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -8.5% | dentro | 200.11 → 183.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -9.4% | dentro | 202.05 → 183.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.1% | -5.7% | dentro | 194.00 → 183.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.7% | +5.6% | dentro | 173.35 → 183.00 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.