CMG 预期波动历史 Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内32%
|实际值| 低于预期值32%
平均预期波动幅度±5.7%
平均|实际|波动幅度8.9%
平均绝对误差4.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 29.80 | ±3.3% | 28.83–30.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 29.90 | ±4.1% | 28.68–31.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 30.48 | ±4.6% | 29.07–31.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 30.43 | ±4.8% | 28.97–31.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 31.61 | ±5.7% | 29.81–33.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 32.60 | ±7.3% | 30.21–34.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 30.85 | ±7.0% | 28.69–33.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 30.93 | ±6.7% | 28.86–33.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 30.89 | ±7.4% | 28.61–33.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 32.27 | ±7.1% | 29.98–34.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 32.40 | ±8.5% | 29.63–35.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 32.75 | ±8.3% | 30.04–35.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 32.71 | ±8.3% | 30.00–35.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 33.14 | ±8.3% | 30.39–35.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 33.49 | ±8.3% | 30.71–36.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 33.65 | ±9.1% | 30.60–36.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 33.77 | ±9.4% | 30.60–36.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 34.84 | ±9.8% | 31.43–38.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 37.00 | ±9.1% | 33.62–40.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 36.19 | ±9.4% | 32.77–39.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 36.29 | ±9.2% | 32.95–39.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 36.30 | ±9.6% | 32.82–39.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 36.98 | ±9.9% | 33.32–40.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 36.90 | ±9.8% | 33.27–40.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 37.18 | ±9.9% | 33.50–40.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 37.62 | ±10.0% | 33.84–41.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 29.80 | ±8.4% | 27.30–32.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 29.90 | ±9.1% | 27.18–32.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 30.48 | ±9.2% | 27.68–33.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 30.43 | ±9.2% | 27.62–33.24 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 29.90 → 29.89 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 30.48 → 29.89 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 30.43 → 29.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 31.61 → 29.89 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -8.3% | 区间外 | 32.60 → 29.89 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 30.85 → 29.89 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 30.93 → 29.89 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 30.89 → 29.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 32.27 → 29.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 32.40 → 29.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 32.75 → 29.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -8.6% | 区间外 | 32.71 → 29.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 33.14 → 29.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 33.49 → 29.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 33.65 → 29.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -11.5% | 区间外 | 33.77 → 29.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -14.2% | 区间外 | 34.84 → 29.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -19.2% | 区间外 | 37.00 → 29.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -17.4% | 区间外 | 36.19 → 29.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -17.6% | 区间外 | 36.29 → 29.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -17.7% | 区间外 | 36.30 → 29.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -19.2% | 区间外 | 36.98 → 29.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -19.0% | 区间外 | 36.90 → 29.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -19.6% | 区间外 | 37.18 → 29.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -20.5% | 区间外 | 37.62 → 29.89 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -22.1% | 区间外 | 38.35 → 29.89 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -20.3% | 区间外 | 37.49 → 29.89 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -21.4% | 区间外 | 38.02 → 29.89 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 31.61 → 31.59 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.1% | 区间外 | 32.60 → 31.59 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 30.85 → 31.59 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 30.93 → 31.59 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +2.3% | 区间内 | 30.89 → 31.59 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 32.27 → 31.59 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 32.40 → 31.59 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -3.5% | 区间内 | 32.75 → 31.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 32.71 → 31.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 33.14 → 31.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 33.49 → 31.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 33.65 → 31.59 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 33.77 → 31.59 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -9.3% | 区间外 | 34.84 → 31.59 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 37.00 → 31.59 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | -12.7% | 区间外 | 36.19 → 31.59 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 36.29 → 31.59 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 36.30 → 31.59 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -14.6% | 区间外 | 36.98 → 31.59 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -14.4% | 区间外 | 36.90 → 31.59 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -15.0% | 区间外 | 37.18 → 31.59 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -16.0% | 区间外 | 37.62 → 31.59 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -17.6% | 区间外 | 38.35 → 31.59 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -15.7% | 区间外 | 37.49 → 31.59 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -16.9% | 区间外 | 38.02 → 31.59 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 32.27 → 32.36 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 32.40 → 32.36 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 32.75 → 32.36 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 32.71 → 32.36 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 33.14 → 32.36 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 33.49 → 32.36 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 33.65 → 32.36 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.