CI historial de movimiento esperado Cigna Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango70%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado70%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.6%
Error medio abs.2.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 298.68 | ±2.9% | 290.06–307.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 302.30 | ±3.4% | 292.10–312.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 289.19 | ±4.0% | 277.58–300.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 282.53 | ±4.2% | 270.78–294.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 283.04 | ±4.5% | 270.29–295.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 280.56 | ±5.0% | 266.56–294.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 278.75 | ±5.0% | 264.95–292.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 274.37 | ±4.6% | 261.62–287.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 271.29 | ±4.8% | 258.29–284.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 270.33 | ±5.4% | 255.83–284.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 267.96 | ±5.7% | 252.76–283.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 278.00 | ±6.6% | 259.60–296.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 273.96 | ±6.6% | 255.76–292.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 277.00 | ±6.7% | 258.40–295.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 274.17 | ±7.2% | 254.42–293.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 281.50 | ±7.4% | 260.65–302.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 288.90 | ±7.4% | 267.40–310.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 290.05 | ±7.2% | 269.25–310.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 280.76 | ±7.6% | 259.51–302.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 280.91 | ±7.9% | 258.66–303.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 278.17 | ±8.0% | 256.02–300.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 275.73 | ±7.8% | 254.12–297.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 278.60 | ±7.7% | 257.15–300.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 282.52 | ±7.8% | 260.62–304.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 286.26 | ±7.8% | 264.06–308.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 298.68 | ±4.3% | 285.98–311.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 302.30 | ±4.7% | 287.95–316.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 289.19 | ±4.9% | 274.99–303.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 282.53 | ±5.3% | 267.58–297.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 283.04 | ±6.1% | 265.74–300.34 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 302.30 → 302.30 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +4.5% | fuera | 289.19 → 302.30 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +7.0% | fuera | 282.53 → 302.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +6.8% | fuera | 283.04 → 302.30 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +7.7% | fuera | 280.56 → 302.30 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +8.4% | fuera | 278.75 → 302.30 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +10.2% | fuera | 274.37 → 302.30 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +11.4% | fuera | 271.29 → 302.30 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +11.8% | fuera | 270.33 → 302.30 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +12.8% | fuera | 267.96 → 302.30 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +8.7% | fuera | 278.00 → 302.30 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +10.3% | fuera | 273.96 → 302.30 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +9.1% | fuera | 277.00 → 302.30 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +10.3% | fuera | 274.17 → 302.30 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +7.4% | fuera | 281.50 → 302.30 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +4.6% | dentro | 288.90 → 302.30 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +4.2% | dentro | 290.05 → 302.30 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.7% | fuera | 280.76 → 302.30 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +7.6% | fuera | 280.91 → 302.30 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +8.7% | fuera | 278.17 → 302.30 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +9.6% | fuera | 275.73 → 302.30 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +8.5% | fuera | 278.60 → 302.30 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +7.0% | dentro | 282.52 → 302.30 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +5.6% | dentro | 286.26 → 302.30 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +6.9% | dentro | 282.84 → 302.30 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +6.8% | dentro | 283.06 → 302.30 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +7.6% | fuera | 281.07 → 302.30 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +8.4% | fuera | 278.88 → 302.30 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 283.04 → 282.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +0.7% | dentro | 280.56 → 282.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 278.75 → 282.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +2.9% | fuera | 274.37 → 282.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +4.1% | fuera | 271.29 → 282.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +4.5% | fuera | 270.33 → 282.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.4% | fuera | 267.96 → 282.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +1.6% | dentro | 278.00 → 282.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +3.1% | dentro | 273.96 → 282.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +2.0% | dentro | 277.00 → 282.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +3.0% | dentro | 274.17 → 282.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +0.3% | dentro | 281.50 → 282.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -2.2% | dentro | 288.90 → 282.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -2.6% | dentro | 290.05 → 282.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +0.6% | dentro | 280.76 → 282.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 280.91 → 282.43 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +1.5% | dentro | 278.17 → 282.43 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 275.73 → 282.43 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +1.4% | dentro | 278.60 → 282.43 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 282.52 → 282.43 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -1.3% | dentro | 286.26 → 282.43 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 282.84 → 282.43 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 283.06 → 282.43 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 281.07 → 282.43 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 278.88 → 282.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 270.33 → 270.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | +1.0% | dentro | 267.96 → 270.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.1% | -2.7% | dentro | 278.00 → 270.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -1.3% | dentro | 273.96 → 270.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 277.00 → 270.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 274.17 → 270.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -3.9% | dentro | 281.50 → 270.53 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.