CEG 预期波动历史 Constellation Energy Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内49%
|实际值| 低于预期值49%
平均预期波动幅度±6.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.4%
平均绝对误差3.9pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 270.83 | ±0.8% | 268.53–273.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 279.54 | ±3.9% | 268.59–290.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 295.49 | ±3.6% | 284.79–306.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 298.07 | ±5.4% | 281.87–314.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 285.07 | ±6.1% | 267.67–302.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 299.60 | ±6.1% | 281.35–317.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 296.94 | ±6.7% | 277.14–316.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 268.99 | ±6.0% | 252.84–285.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 257.49 | ±6.5% | 240.84–274.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 259.06 | ±7.2% | 240.31–277.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 264.38 | ±8.5% | 242.03–286.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 263.86 | ±8.5% | 241.51–286.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 264.06 | ±8.6% | 241.47–286.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 256.62 | ±9.1% | 233.32–279.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 263.10 | ±9.2% | 238.90–287.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 259.53 | ±9.5% | 234.88–284.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 261.65 | ±9.6% | 236.60–286.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 265.29 | ±10.1% | 238.39–292.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 284.93 | ±10.1% | 256.13–313.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 288.34 | ±10.6% | 257.89–318.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 294.54 | ±11.1% | 261.94–327.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 299.84 | ±11.3% | 265.89–333.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 298.75 | ±11.7% | 263.85–333.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 298.96 | ±11.7% | 264.06–333.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 285.05 | ±10.9% | 254.00–316.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 289.85 | ±11.2% | 257.40–322.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 280.00 | ±11.1% | 248.90–311.10 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 275.55 | ±11.4% | 244.15–306.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 270.83 | ±5.2% | 256.78–284.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 279.54 | ±5.9% | 262.99–296.09 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 298.07 → 298.07 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 285.07 → 298.07 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 299.60 → 298.07 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 296.94 → 298.07 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +10.8% | 区间外 | 268.99 → 298.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +15.8% | 区间外 | 257.49 → 298.07 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +15.1% | 区间外 | 259.06 → 298.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +12.7% | 区间外 | 264.38 → 298.07 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +13.0% | 区间外 | 263.86 → 298.07 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +12.9% | 区间外 | 264.06 → 298.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 256.62 → 298.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +13.3% | 区间外 | 263.10 → 298.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +14.8% | 区间外 | 259.53 → 298.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +13.9% | 区间外 | 261.65 → 298.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 265.29 → 298.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 284.93 → 298.07 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +3.4% | 区间内 | 288.34 → 298.07 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 294.54 → 298.07 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 299.84 → 298.07 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 298.75 → 298.07 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 298.96 → 298.07 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +4.6% | 区间内 | 285.05 → 298.07 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 289.85 → 298.07 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +6.5% | 区间内 | 280.00 → 298.07 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +8.2% | 区间内 | 275.55 → 298.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 257.49 → 257.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -0.6% | 区间内 | 259.06 → 257.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 264.38 → 257.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 263.86 → 257.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 264.06 → 257.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 256.62 → 257.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -2.1% | 区间内 | 263.10 → 257.49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 259.53 → 257.49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 261.65 → 257.49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 265.29 → 257.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -9.6% | 区间外 | 284.93 → 257.49 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 288.34 → 257.49 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -12.6% | 区间外 | 294.54 → 257.49 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -14.1% | 区间外 | 299.84 → 257.49 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 298.75 → 257.49 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -13.9% | 区间外 | 298.96 → 257.49 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 285.05 → 257.49 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 289.85 → 257.49 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | -8.0% | 区间内 | 280.00 → 257.49 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 275.55 → 257.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 264.38 → 263.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 263.86 → 263.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 264.06 → 263.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 256.62 → 263.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 263.10 → 263.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 259.53 → 263.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 261.65 → 263.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 265.29 → 263.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -7.6% | 区间外 | 284.93 → 263.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.0% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 288.34 → 263.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.4% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 294.54 → 263.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.4% | -12.2% | 区间外 | 299.84 → 263.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 298.75 → 263.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.1% | -11.9% | 区间外 | 298.96 → 263.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -7.6% | 区间内 | 285.05 → 263.27 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.