CEG historial de movimiento esperado Constellation Energy Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango58%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado58%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.7%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.1%
Error medio abs.4.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 259.30 | ±3.6% | 249.90–268.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 263.49 | ±4.3% | 252.04–274.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 270.83 | ±5.2% | 256.78–284.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 279.54 | ±5.9% | 262.99–296.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 295.49 | ±6.3% | 276.94–314.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 298.07 | ±7.5% | 275.57–320.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 285.07 | ±7.9% | 262.52–307.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 299.60 | ±7.7% | 276.45–322.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 296.94 | ±8.1% | 272.89–320.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 268.99 | ±7.8% | 247.89–290.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 257.49 | ±8.3% | 235.99–278.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 259.06 | ±8.6% | 236.71–281.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 264.38 | ±9.7% | 238.73–290.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 263.86 | ±9.7% | 238.21–289.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 264.06 | ±10.0% | 237.62–290.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 256.62 | ±10.1% | 230.68–282.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 263.10 | ±10.5% | 235.45–290.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 259.53 | ±10.3% | 232.88–286.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 261.65 | ±11.0% | 232.95–290.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 265.29 | ±11.0% | 235.99–294.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 284.93 | ±11.0% | 253.53–316.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 288.34 | ±11.8% | 254.24–322.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 294.54 | ±12.1% | 259.04–330.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 299.84 | ±12.2% | 263.29–336.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 298.75 | ±12.6% | 261.15–336.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 298.96 | ±12.6% | 261.36–336.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 285.05 | ±11.9% | 251.10–319.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 30 | 10 | 259.30 | ±6.3% | 243.00–275.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 263.49 | ±6.7% | 245.94–281.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 270.83 | ±7.2% | 251.38–290.28 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 270.83 → 271.37 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -2.9% | dentro | 279.54 → 271.37 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -8.2% | fuera | 295.49 → 271.37 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -9.0% | fuera | 298.07 → 271.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.8% | dentro | 285.07 → 271.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -9.4% | fuera | 299.60 → 271.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -8.6% | fuera | 296.94 → 271.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +0.9% | dentro | 268.99 → 271.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +5.4% | dentro | 257.49 → 271.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +4.8% | dentro | 259.06 → 271.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +2.6% | dentro | 264.38 → 271.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | +2.8% | dentro | 263.86 → 271.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +2.8% | dentro | 264.06 → 271.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | +5.7% | dentro | 256.62 → 271.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +3.1% | dentro | 263.10 → 271.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +4.6% | dentro | 259.53 → 271.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +3.7% | dentro | 261.65 → 271.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | +2.3% | dentro | 265.29 → 271.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -4.8% | dentro | 284.93 → 271.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -5.9% | dentro | 288.34 → 271.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -7.9% | dentro | 294.54 → 271.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -9.5% | dentro | 299.84 → 271.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -9.2% | dentro | 298.75 → 271.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -9.2% | dentro | 298.96 → 271.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | -4.8% | dentro | 285.05 → 271.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -6.4% | dentro | 289.85 → 271.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -3.1% | dentro | 280.00 → 271.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 275.55 → 271.37 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 298.07 → 298.07 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.6% | fuera | 285.07 → 298.07 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 299.60 → 298.07 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | +0.4% | dentro | 296.94 → 298.07 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | +10.8% | fuera | 268.99 → 298.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +15.8% | fuera | 257.49 → 298.07 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +15.1% | fuera | 259.06 → 298.07 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +12.7% | fuera | 264.38 → 298.07 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +13.0% | fuera | 263.86 → 298.07 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +12.9% | fuera | 264.06 → 298.07 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | +16.1% | fuera | 256.62 → 298.07 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +13.3% | fuera | 263.10 → 298.07 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +14.8% | fuera | 259.53 → 298.07 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +13.9% | fuera | 261.65 → 298.07 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +12.4% | fuera | 265.29 → 298.07 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +4.6% | dentro | 284.93 → 298.07 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +3.4% | dentro | 288.34 → 298.07 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +1.2% | dentro | 294.54 → 298.07 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 299.84 → 298.07 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -0.2% | dentro | 298.75 → 298.07 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 298.96 → 298.07 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +4.6% | dentro | 285.05 → 298.07 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +2.8% | dentro | 289.85 → 298.07 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +6.5% | dentro | 280.00 → 298.07 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +8.2% | dentro | 275.55 → 298.07 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 257.49 → 257.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.4% | -0.6% | dentro | 259.06 → 257.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.6% | dentro | 264.38 → 257.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -2.4% | dentro | 263.86 → 257.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.1% | -2.5% | dentro | 264.06 → 257.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 256.62 → 257.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -2.1% | dentro | 263.10 → 257.49 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.