CCL historial de movimiento esperado Carnival Corporation & plc
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango59%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado59%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.7%
Error medio abs.3.0pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 26.44 | ±3.6% | 25.49–27.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 25.91 | ±4.3% | 24.79–27.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 25.92 | ±4.6% | 24.73–27.11 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 26.65 | ±4.6% | 25.43–27.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 26.30 | ±5.2% | 24.93–27.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 26.08 | ±6.2% | 24.48–27.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 26.18 | ±6.1% | 24.59–27.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 26.58 | ±5.9% | 25.00–28.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 25.57 | ±6.5% | 23.91–27.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 25.79 | ±6.8% | 24.04–27.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 25.09 | ±7.9% | 23.11–27.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 22.38 | ±10.9% | 19.93–24.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 22.32 | ±11.0% | 19.87–24.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 22.34 | ±10.9% | 19.89–24.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 21.86 | ±11.0% | 19.46–24.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 22.27 | ±11.2% | 19.78–24.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 22.40 | ±12.0% | 19.72–25.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 22.13 | ±12.0% | 19.48–24.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 22.64 | ±11.9% | 19.94–25.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 22.80 | ±11.7% | 20.14–25.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 22.60 | ±12.1% | 19.87–25.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 22.78 | ±11.3% | 20.21–25.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 23.27 | ±12.5% | 20.35–26.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 23.52 | ±13.2% | 20.42–26.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 23.54 | ±13.2% | 20.43–26.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 23.47 | ±9.9% | 21.16–25.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 26.44 | ±6.4% | 24.74–28.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 25.91 | ±6.8% | 24.14–27.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 25.92 | ±6.3% | 24.29–27.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 26.65 | ±6.4% | 24.95–28.35 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.7% | -0.0% | dentro | 25.91 → 25.90 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 25.92 → 25.90 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -2.8% | dentro | 26.65 → 25.90 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -1.5% | dentro | 26.30 → 25.90 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -0.7% | dentro | 26.08 → 25.90 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -1.1% | dentro | 26.18 → 25.90 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -2.6% | dentro | 26.58 → 25.90 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 25.57 → 25.90 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +0.4% | dentro | 25.79 → 25.90 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +3.2% | dentro | 25.09 → 25.90 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +15.7% | fuera | 22.38 → 25.90 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +16.0% | fuera | 22.32 → 25.90 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | +15.9% | fuera | 22.34 → 25.90 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +18.5% | fuera | 21.86 → 25.90 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +16.3% | fuera | 22.27 → 25.90 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | +15.6% | fuera | 22.40 → 25.90 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +17.0% | fuera | 22.13 → 25.90 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +14.4% | fuera | 22.64 → 25.90 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.9% | +13.6% | fuera | 22.80 → 25.90 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +14.6% | fuera | 22.60 → 25.90 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +13.7% | fuera | 22.78 → 25.90 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +11.3% | dentro | 23.27 → 25.90 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +10.1% | dentro | 23.52 → 25.90 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +10.0% | dentro | 23.54 → 25.90 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +10.3% | dentro | 23.47 → 25.90 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +8.6% | dentro | 23.84 → 25.90 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | +11.0% | dentro | 23.34 → 25.90 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +8.2% | dentro | 23.93 → 25.90 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 26.30 → 26.35 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.0% | dentro | 26.08 → 26.35 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +0.6% | dentro | 26.18 → 26.35 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 26.58 → 26.35 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +3.0% | dentro | 25.57 → 26.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.2% | dentro | 25.79 → 26.35 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +5.0% | fuera | 25.09 → 26.35 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +17.7% | fuera | 22.38 → 26.35 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +18.1% | fuera | 22.32 → 26.35 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +17.9% | fuera | 22.34 → 26.35 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +20.5% | fuera | 21.86 → 26.35 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +18.3% | fuera | 22.27 → 26.35 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +17.6% | fuera | 22.40 → 26.35 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +19.1% | fuera | 22.13 → 26.35 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +16.4% | fuera | 22.64 → 26.35 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +15.6% | fuera | 22.80 → 26.35 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +16.6% | fuera | 22.60 → 26.35 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +15.7% | fuera | 22.78 → 26.35 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +13.2% | fuera | 23.27 → 26.35 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +12.0% | fuera | 23.52 → 26.35 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +12.0% | fuera | 23.54 → 26.35 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +12.3% | fuera | 23.47 → 26.35 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +10.5% | dentro | 23.84 → 26.35 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +12.9% | fuera | 23.34 → 26.35 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +10.1% | dentro | 23.93 → 26.35 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.8% | -0.1% | dentro | 25.79 → 25.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +2.7% | fuera | 25.09 → 25.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +15.1% | fuera | 22.38 → 25.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +15.4% | fuera | 22.32 → 25.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +15.3% | fuera | 22.34 → 25.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +17.8% | fuera | 21.86 → 25.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +15.7% | fuera | 22.27 → 25.76 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.