CAVA historial de movimiento esperado CAVA Group, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango64%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado64%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio7.2%
Error medio abs.4.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 57.90 | ±5.0% | 54.99–60.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 57.25 | ±6.2% | 53.70–60.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 51.59 | ±6.5% | 48.23–54.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 52.98 | ±6.5% | 49.53–56.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 53.64 | ±7.7% | 49.49–57.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 54.49 | ±8.2% | 50.01–58.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 52.07 | ±8.5% | 47.66–56.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 52.25 | ±8.8% | 47.67–56.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 54.10 | ±9.1% | 49.16–59.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 54.41 | ±9.8% | 49.06–59.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 54.40 | ±10.0% | 48.97–59.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 53.20 | ±13.0% | 46.27–60.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 53.43 | ±12.8% | 46.58–60.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 51.87 | ±12.9% | 45.19–58.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 51.90 | ±13.3% | 44.98–58.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 51.84 | ±13.8% | 44.67–59.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 51.04 | ±14.3% | 43.74–58.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 50.41 | ±14.4% | 43.13–57.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 55.71 | ±13.8% | 48.03–63.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 54.57 | ±15.5% | 46.09–63.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 54.91 | ±14.1% | 47.19–62.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 56.91 | ±14.9% | 48.41–65.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 60.00 | ±14.8% | 51.15–68.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 60.74 | ±13.6% | 52.46–69.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 60.88 | ±13.6% | 52.60–69.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 62.06 | ±14.1% | 53.32–70.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 57.90 | ±8.5% | 52.98–62.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 57.25 | ±9.2% | 51.99–62.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 51.59 | ±9.4% | 46.72–56.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 52.98 | ±9.5% | 47.94–58.02 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 57.25 → 57.25 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +11.0% | fuera | 51.59 → 57.25 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | +8.1% | fuera | 52.98 → 57.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +6.7% | fuera | 53.64 → 57.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +5.1% | dentro | 54.49 → 57.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +9.9% | fuera | 52.07 → 57.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | +9.6% | fuera | 52.25 → 57.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +5.8% | dentro | 54.10 → 57.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +5.2% | dentro | 54.41 → 57.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +5.2% | dentro | 54.40 → 57.25 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +7.6% | dentro | 53.20 → 57.25 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.7% | +7.2% | dentro | 53.43 → 57.25 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +10.4% | dentro | 51.87 → 57.25 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +10.3% | dentro | 51.90 → 57.25 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +10.4% | dentro | 51.84 → 57.25 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | +12.2% | dentro | 51.04 → 57.25 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | +13.6% | fuera | 50.41 → 57.25 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +2.8% | dentro | 55.71 → 57.25 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | +4.9% | dentro | 54.57 → 57.25 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +4.3% | dentro | 54.91 → 57.25 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 56.91 → 57.25 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -4.6% | dentro | 60.00 → 57.25 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -5.7% | dentro | 60.74 → 57.25 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -6.0% | dentro | 60.88 → 57.25 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -7.8% | dentro | 62.06 → 57.25 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -6.7% | dentro | 61.35 → 57.25 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -8.7% | dentro | 62.70 → 57.25 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.0% | -14.3% | fuera | 66.79 → 57.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 53.64 → 53.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -1.6% | dentro | 54.49 → 53.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +3.0% | dentro | 52.07 → 53.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +2.7% | dentro | 52.25 → 53.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | -0.8% | dentro | 54.10 → 53.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -1.4% | dentro | 54.41 → 53.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 54.40 → 53.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +0.8% | dentro | 53.20 → 53.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +0.4% | dentro | 53.43 → 53.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +3.4% | dentro | 51.87 → 53.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 51.90 → 53.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +3.5% | dentro | 51.84 → 53.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +5.1% | dentro | 51.04 → 53.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +6.4% | dentro | 50.41 → 53.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -3.7% | dentro | 55.71 → 53.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -1.7% | dentro | 54.57 → 53.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -2.3% | dentro | 54.91 → 53.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -5.7% | dentro | 56.91 → 53.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -10.6% | dentro | 60.00 → 53.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -11.7% | dentro | 60.74 → 53.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -11.9% | fuera | 60.88 → 53.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -13.6% | fuera | 62.06 → 53.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -12.6% | fuera | 61.35 → 53.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -14.4% | fuera | 62.70 → 53.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -19.7% | fuera | 66.79 → 53.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 54.41 → 54.41 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 54.40 → 54.41 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +2.3% | dentro | 53.20 → 54.41 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +1.8% | dentro | 53.43 → 54.41 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | +4.9% | dentro | 51.87 → 54.41 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +4.8% | dentro | 51.90 → 54.41 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | +4.9% | dentro | 51.84 → 54.41 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.