CAT histórico de movimento esperado Caterpillar Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo70%
|Real| abaixo do esperado70%
Movimento esperado médio±5.7%
Movimento |real| médio4.1%
Erro médio absoluto3.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 727.00 | ±3.8% | 699.17–754.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 730.70 | ±4.6% | 696.83–764.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 751.62 | ±5.3% | 711.47–791.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 772.00 | ±5.0% | 733.55–810.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 800.05 | ±5.2% | 758.22–841.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 797.75 | ±5.8% | 751.47–844.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 814.85 | ±6.0% | 765.60–864.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 865.49 | ±6.1% | 812.37–918.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 846.26 | ±6.3% | 792.66–899.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 847.00 | ±6.9% | 788.62–905.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 826.00 | ±7.0% | 768.00–884.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 809.56 | ±8.3% | 742.59–876.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 808.15 | ±8.3% | 741.17–875.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 818.62 | ±8.4% | 750.10–887.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 805.87 | ±8.5% | 737.67–874.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 796.75 | ±8.9% | 725.70–867.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 779.92 | ±9.4% | 706.64–853.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 782.05 | ±9.1% | 710.63–853.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 784.88 | ±9.3% | 711.75–858.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 819.00 | ±9.5% | 741.33–896.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 804.54 | ±10.2% | 722.59–886.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 818.41 | ±10.3% | 734.06–902.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 827.29 | ±10.6% | 739.79–914.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 813.00 | ±10.6% | 727.08–898.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 812.00 | ±10.8% | 724.05–899.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 801.72 | ±10.5% | 717.32–886.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 727.00 | ±7.7% | 670.83–783.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 730.70 | ±8.7% | 667.48–793.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 751.62 | ±9.0% | 684.12–819.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 772.00 | ±8.9% | 703.25–840.75 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 730.70 → 730.76 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | -2.8% | dentro | 751.62 → 730.76 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -5.3% | fora | 772.00 → 730.76 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -8.7% | fora | 800.05 → 730.76 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -8.4% | fora | 797.75 → 730.76 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -10.3% | fora | 814.85 → 730.76 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -15.6% | fora | 865.49 → 730.76 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -13.6% | fora | 846.26 → 730.76 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -13.7% | fora | 847.00 → 730.76 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -11.5% | fora | 826.00 → 730.76 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -9.7% | fora | 809.56 → 730.76 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -9.6% | fora | 808.15 → 730.76 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -10.7% | fora | 818.62 → 730.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -9.3% | fora | 805.87 → 730.76 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -8.3% | fora | 796.75 → 730.76 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -6.3% | dentro | 779.92 → 730.76 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.6% | dentro | 782.05 → 730.76 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -6.9% | dentro | 784.88 → 730.76 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -10.8% | fora | 819.00 → 730.76 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -9.2% | fora | 804.54 → 730.76 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | -10.7% | fora | 818.41 → 730.76 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -11.7% | fora | 827.29 → 730.76 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -10.1% | fora | 813.00 → 730.76 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -10.0% | fora | 812.00 → 730.76 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -8.9% | dentro | 801.72 → 730.76 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -7.8% | dentro | 792.38 → 730.76 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | -6.3% | dentro | 780.00 → 730.76 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -8.3% | dentro | 797.24 → 730.76 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 800.05 → 800.47 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.6% | +0.3% | dentro | 797.75 → 800.47 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | -1.8% | dentro | 814.85 → 800.47 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -7.5% | fora | 865.49 → 800.47 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -5.4% | fora | 846.26 → 800.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -5.5% | fora | 847.00 → 800.47 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 826.00 → 800.47 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -1.1% | dentro | 809.56 → 800.47 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 808.15 → 800.47 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 818.62 → 800.47 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -0.7% | dentro | 805.87 → 800.47 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +0.5% | dentro | 796.75 → 800.47 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 779.92 → 800.47 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +2.4% | dentro | 782.05 → 800.47 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +2.0% | dentro | 784.88 → 800.47 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -2.3% | dentro | 819.00 → 800.47 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 804.54 → 800.47 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 818.41 → 800.47 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.2% | dentro | 827.29 → 800.47 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -1.5% | dentro | 813.00 → 800.47 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -1.4% | dentro | 812.00 → 800.47 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 801.72 → 800.47 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +1.0% | dentro | 792.38 → 800.47 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +2.6% | dentro | 780.00 → 800.47 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +0.4% | dentro | 797.24 → 800.47 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 847.00 → 845.42 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | +2.4% | fora | 826.00 → 845.42 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +4.4% | dentro | 809.56 → 845.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +4.6% | dentro | 808.15 → 845.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +3.3% | dentro | 818.62 → 845.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | +4.9% | dentro | 805.87 → 845.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +6.1% | fora | 796.75 → 845.42 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.