BX 预期波动历史 Blackstone Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内29%
|实际值| 低于预期值29%
平均预期波动幅度±5.4%
平均|实际|波动幅度8.4%
平均绝对误差3.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 106.93 | ±0.8% | 106.05–107.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 106.21 | ±2.9% | 103.10–109.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 110.26 | ±3.4% | 106.54–113.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 114.50 | ±4.1% | 109.86–119.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 112.70 | ±4.5% | 107.58–117.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 111.89 | ±4.8% | 106.51–117.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 113.20 | ±5.0% | 107.52–118.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 112.00 | ±5.6% | 105.73–118.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 112.18 | ±6.0% | 105.44–118.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 112.01 | ±6.2% | 105.11–118.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 123.80 | ±7.4% | 114.70–132.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 124.07 | ±7.3% | 114.97–133.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 126.47 | ±7.4% | 117.09–135.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 125.12 | ±7.8% | 115.39–134.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 125.57 | ±8.1% | 115.37–135.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 123.50 | ±8.8% | 112.67–134.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 126.48 | ±8.8% | 115.38–137.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 128.23 | ±8.9% | 116.86–139.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 128.43 | ±9.1% | 116.80–140.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 125.56 | ±9.5% | 113.58–137.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 129.35 | ±9.3% | 117.30–141.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 133.97 | ±9.4% | 121.39–146.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 136.15 | ±9.3% | 123.42–148.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 136.15 | ±9.3% | 123.42–148.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 137.80 | ±9.6% | 124.53–151.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 137.78 | ±10.1% | 123.90–151.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 136.43 | ±10.4% | 122.31–150.56 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 143.82 | ±9.9% | 129.65–158.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 106.93 | ±6.3% | 100.22–113.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 106.21 | ±6.4% | 99.41–113.01 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 114.50 → 114.29 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 112.70 → 114.29 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 111.89 → 114.29 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 113.20 → 114.29 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 112.00 → 114.29 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 112.18 → 114.29 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 112.01 → 114.29 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 123.80 → 114.29 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 124.07 → 114.29 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -9.6% | 区间外 | 126.47 → 114.29 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -8.7% | 区间外 | 125.12 → 114.29 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -9.0% | 区间外 | 125.57 → 114.29 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -7.5% | 区间内 | 123.50 → 114.29 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -9.6% | 区间外 | 126.48 → 114.29 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -10.9% | 区间外 | 128.23 → 114.29 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 128.43 → 114.29 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -9.0% | 区间外 | 125.56 → 114.29 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 129.35 → 114.29 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -14.7% | 区间外 | 133.97 → 114.29 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -16.1% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 114.29 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -16.1% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 114.29 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -17.1% | 区间外 | 137.80 → 114.29 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -17.0% | 区间外 | 137.78 → 114.29 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -16.2% | 区间外 | 136.43 → 114.29 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -20.5% | 区间外 | 143.82 → 114.29 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 112.18 → 111.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 112.01 → 111.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 123.80 → 111.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -9.9% | 区间外 | 124.07 → 111.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 126.47 → 111.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 125.12 → 111.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 125.57 → 111.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.6% | -9.5% | 区间外 | 123.50 → 111.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.7% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 126.48 → 111.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -12.9% | 区间外 | 128.23 → 111.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.1% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 128.43 → 111.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -11.0% | 区间外 | 125.56 → 111.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -13.6% | 区间外 | 129.35 → 111.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -16.6% | 区间外 | 133.97 → 111.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -17.9% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 111.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -17.9% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 111.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -18.9% | 区间外 | 137.80 → 111.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | -18.9% | 区间外 | 137.78 → 111.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -18.1% | 区间外 | 136.43 → 111.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -22.3% | 区间外 | 143.82 → 111.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.3% | 区间外 | 123.80 → 118.42 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.9% | -4.6% | 区间外 | 124.07 → 118.42 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -6.4% | 区间外 | 126.47 → 118.42 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -5.4% | 区间外 | 125.12 → 118.42 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 125.57 → 118.42 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 123.50 → 118.42 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -6.4% | 区间外 | 126.48 → 118.42 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 128.23 → 118.42 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.7% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 128.43 → 118.42 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.4% | -5.7% | 区间内 | 125.56 → 118.42 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -8.4% | 区间外 | 129.35 → 118.42 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 133.97 → 118.42 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 118.42 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 136.15 → 118.42 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | -14.1% | 区间外 | 137.80 → 118.42 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.