BX historial de movimiento esperado Blackstone Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango28%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado28%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio9.5%
Error medio abs.4.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 107.09 | ±5.7% | 100.95–113.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 106.93 | ±6.3% | 100.22–113.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 106.21 | ±6.4% | 99.41–113.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 110.26 | ±6.2% | 103.39–117.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 114.50 | ±7.0% | 106.53–122.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 112.70 | ±7.1% | 104.72–120.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 111.89 | ±7.2% | 103.82–119.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 113.20 | ±7.3% | 104.92–121.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 112.00 | ±7.8% | 103.22–120.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 112.18 | ±8.5% | 102.68–121.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 112.01 | ±8.2% | 102.83–121.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 123.80 | ±8.9% | 112.80–134.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 124.07 | ±8.9% | 113.07–135.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 126.47 | ±9.0% | 115.14–137.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 125.12 | ±9.4% | 113.34–136.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 125.57 | ±9.7% | 113.44–137.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 123.50 | ±10.4% | 110.62–136.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 126.48 | ±10.3% | 113.43–139.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 128.23 | ±10.2% | 115.11–141.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 128.43 | ±10.4% | 115.05–141.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 125.56 | ±11.0% | 111.81–139.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 129.35 | ±10.6% | 115.70–143.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 133.97 | ±10.6% | 119.72–148.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 136.15 | ±10.6% | 121.70–150.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 136.15 | ±10.6% | 121.70–150.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 137.80 | ±10.8% | 122.95–152.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 107.09 | ±7.0% | 99.59–114.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 106.93 | ±7.7% | 98.66–115.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 106.21 | ±8.3% | 97.39–115.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 110.26 | ±7.6% | 101.91–118.61 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 106.93 → 106.61 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +0.4% | dentro | 106.21 → 106.61 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -3.3% | dentro | 110.26 → 106.61 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -6.9% | fuera | 114.50 → 106.61 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -5.4% | fuera | 112.70 → 106.61 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | -4.7% | dentro | 111.89 → 106.61 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -5.8% | fuera | 113.20 → 106.61 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -4.8% | dentro | 112.00 → 106.61 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -5.0% | dentro | 112.18 → 106.61 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -4.8% | dentro | 112.01 → 106.61 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -13.9% | fuera | 123.80 → 106.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -14.1% | fuera | 124.07 → 106.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -15.7% | fuera | 126.47 → 106.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -14.8% | fuera | 125.12 → 106.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -15.1% | fuera | 125.57 → 106.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -13.7% | fuera | 123.50 → 106.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -15.7% | fuera | 126.48 → 106.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -16.9% | fuera | 128.23 → 106.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -17.0% | fuera | 128.43 → 106.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -15.1% | fuera | 125.56 → 106.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -17.6% | fuera | 129.35 → 106.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -20.4% | fuera | 133.97 → 106.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -21.7% | fuera | 136.15 → 106.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.3% | -21.7% | fuera | 136.15 → 106.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -22.6% | fuera | 137.80 → 106.61 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -22.6% | fuera | 137.78 → 106.61 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -21.9% | fuera | 136.43 → 106.61 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -25.9% | fuera | 143.82 → 106.61 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 114.50 → 114.29 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 112.70 → 114.29 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 111.89 → 114.29 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.0% | dentro | 113.20 → 114.29 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +2.0% | dentro | 112.00 → 114.29 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +1.9% | dentro | 112.18 → 114.29 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +2.0% | dentro | 112.01 → 114.29 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.7% | fuera | 123.80 → 114.29 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -7.9% | fuera | 124.07 → 114.29 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -9.6% | fuera | 126.47 → 114.29 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -8.7% | fuera | 125.12 → 114.29 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | -9.0% | fuera | 125.57 → 114.29 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -7.5% | dentro | 123.50 → 114.29 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -9.6% | fuera | 126.48 → 114.29 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -10.9% | fuera | 128.23 → 114.29 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -11.0% | fuera | 128.43 → 114.29 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -9.0% | fuera | 125.56 → 114.29 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -11.6% | fuera | 129.35 → 114.29 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -14.7% | fuera | 133.97 → 114.29 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -16.1% | fuera | 136.15 → 114.29 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | -16.1% | fuera | 136.15 → 114.29 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -17.1% | fuera | 137.80 → 114.29 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -17.0% | fuera | 137.78 → 114.29 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | -16.2% | fuera | 136.43 → 114.29 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -20.5% | fuera | 143.82 → 114.29 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 112.18 → 111.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 112.01 → 111.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -9.7% | fuera | 123.80 → 111.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -9.9% | fuera | 124.07 → 111.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -11.6% | fuera | 126.47 → 111.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.7% | -10.7% | fuera | 125.12 → 111.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -11.0% | fuera | 125.57 → 111.75 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.