BMY 预期波动历史 Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内54%
|实际值| 低于预期值53%
平均预期波动幅度±4.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.6%
平均绝对误差1.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 58.71 | ±2.8% | 57.04–60.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 59.87 | ±3.3% | 57.88–61.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 59.25 | ±3.8% | 57.01–61.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 56.60 | ±3.8% | 54.45–58.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 59.10 | ±4.6% | 56.38–61.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 59.58 | ±5.3% | 56.45–62.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 59.81 | ±5.1% | 56.75–62.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 59.59 | ±5.1% | 56.55–62.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 58.81 | ±5.4% | 55.65–61.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 61.28 | ±5.8% | 57.69–64.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 61.60 | ±5.8% | 58.00–65.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 62.30 | ±6.1% | 58.50–66.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 62.37 | ±6.1% | 58.57–66.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 62.77 | ±6.3% | 58.84–66.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 63.06 | ±6.5% | 58.98–67.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 62.84 | ±6.6% | 58.66–67.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 63.60 | ±6.8% | 59.27–67.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 63.73 | ±6.9% | 59.33–68.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 64.18 | ±7.2% | 59.57–68.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 63.65 | ±7.1% | 59.14–68.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 63.75 | ±7.9% | 58.70–68.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 64.41 | ±7.3% | 59.71–69.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 64.82 | ±7.7% | 59.82–69.82 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 66.82 | ±8.0% | 61.49–72.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 67.25 | ±8.5% | 61.55–72.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 68.00 | ±7.7% | 62.80–73.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 58.71 | ±5.8% | 55.29–62.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 59.87 | ±6.8% | 55.81–63.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 59.25 | ±6.1% | 55.66–62.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 56.60 | ±6.3% | 53.05–60.16 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 59.87 → 59.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 59.25 → 59.75 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 56.60 → 59.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 59.10 → 59.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 59.58 → 59.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 59.81 → 59.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 59.59 → 59.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 58.81 → 59.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 61.28 → 59.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 61.60 → 59.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 62.30 → 59.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -4.2% | 区间内 | 62.37 → 59.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -4.8% | 区间内 | 62.77 → 59.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 63.06 → 59.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 62.84 → 59.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 63.60 → 59.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 63.73 → 59.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 64.18 → 59.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -6.1% | 区间内 | 63.65 → 59.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -6.3% | 区间内 | 63.75 → 59.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 64.41 → 59.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 64.82 → 59.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -10.6% | 区间外 | 66.82 → 59.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 67.25 → 59.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -12.1% | 区间外 | 68.00 → 59.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 67.55 → 59.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -10.7% | 区间外 | 66.92 → 59.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -10.3% | 区间外 | 66.58 → 59.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 59.10 → 59.12 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 59.58 → 59.12 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 59.81 → 59.12 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 59.59 → 59.12 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 58.81 → 59.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -3.5% | 区间外 | 61.28 → 59.12 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | -4.0% | 区间外 | 61.60 → 59.12 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 62.30 → 59.12 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -5.2% | 区间外 | 62.37 → 59.12 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 62.77 → 59.12 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 63.06 → 59.12 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 62.84 → 59.12 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 63.60 → 59.12 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 63.73 → 59.12 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 64.18 → 59.12 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 63.65 → 59.12 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -7.3% | 区间外 | 63.75 → 59.12 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 64.41 → 59.12 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 64.82 → 59.12 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.0% | -11.5% | 区间外 | 66.82 → 59.12 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -12.1% | 区间外 | 67.25 → 59.12 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 68.00 → 59.12 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -12.5% | 区间外 | 67.55 → 59.12 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 66.92 → 59.12 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -11.2% | 区间外 | 66.58 → 59.12 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 61.28 → 61.15 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | -0.7% | 区间内 | 61.60 → 61.15 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 62.30 → 61.15 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.8% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 62.37 → 61.15 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 62.77 → 61.15 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.0% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 63.06 → 61.15 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 62.84 → 61.15 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.