BITO histórico de movimento esperado ProShares Bitcoin ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas139
Fechar dentro do intervalo75%
|Real| abaixo do esperado75%
Movimento esperado médio±7.2%
Movimento |real| médio4.6%
Erro médio absoluto3.7pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 10.95 | ±3.0% | 10.62–11.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 10.84 | ±3.9% | 10.42–11.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 10.90 | ±4.5% | 10.41–11.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 11.13 | ±4.6% | 10.62–11.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 11.04 | ±5.9% | 10.39–11.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 10.91 | ±6.0% | 10.26–11.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 11.13 | ±6.2% | 10.44–11.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 11.44 | ±7.3% | 10.61–12.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 11.47 | ±7.1% | 10.66–12.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 11.44 | ±6.8% | 10.66–12.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 11.32 | ±6.8% | 10.54–12.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 11.59 | ±16.8% | 9.64–13.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 11.59 | ±16.8% | 9.64–13.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 11.64 | ±17.8% | 9.56–13.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 10.52 | ±8.0% | 9.68–11.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 10.26 | ±8.2% | 9.42–11.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 10.22 | ±14.9% | 8.70–11.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 10.18 | ±10.8% | 9.09–11.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 10.60 | ±11.1% | 9.42–11.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 10.57 | ±11.3% | 9.38–11.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 10.37 | ±20.3% | 8.26–12.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 10.59 | ±12.3% | 9.29–11.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 10.57 | ±12.7% | 9.22–11.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 10.74 | ±12.0% | 9.45–12.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 10.92 | ±19.6% | 8.78–13.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 10.85 | ±22.1% | 8.45–13.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 10.95 | ±4.8% | 10.42–11.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 10.84 | ±5.5% | 10.24–11.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 10.90 | ±6.1% | 10.24–11.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 11.13 | ±5.9% | 10.47–11.79 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +0.4% | dentro | 10.84 → 10.88 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 10.90 → 10.88 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -2.2% | dentro | 11.13 → 10.88 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -1.4% | dentro | 11.04 → 10.88 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | -0.3% | dentro | 10.91 → 10.88 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 11.13 → 10.88 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -4.9% | fora | 11.44 → 10.88 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -5.1% | fora | 11.47 → 10.88 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | -4.9% | dentro | 11.44 → 10.88 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -3.9% | dentro | 11.32 → 10.88 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -6.1% | dentro | 11.59 → 10.88 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -6.1% | dentro | 11.59 → 10.88 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -6.5% | dentro | 11.64 → 10.88 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | +3.4% | dentro | 10.52 → 10.88 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.26 → 10.88 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +6.5% | dentro | 10.22 → 10.88 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | +6.9% | dentro | 10.18 → 10.88 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +2.6% | dentro | 10.60 → 10.88 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +2.9% | dentro | 10.57 → 10.88 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | +4.9% | dentro | 10.37 → 10.88 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | +2.7% | dentro | 10.59 → 10.88 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | +2.9% | dentro | 10.57 → 10.88 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 10.74 → 10.88 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 10.92 → 10.88 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 10.85 → 10.88 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | +5.7% | dentro | 10.29 → 10.88 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | +5.0% | dentro | 10.36 → 10.88 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +3.0% | dentro | 10.56 → 10.88 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -0.4% | dentro | 11.04 → 11.00 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 10.91 → 11.00 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 11.13 → 11.00 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -3.8% | fora | 11.44 → 11.00 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -4.1% | fora | 11.47 → 11.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.8% | -3.8% | fora | 11.44 → 11.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -2.8% | dentro | 11.32 → 11.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 11.59 → 11.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 11.59 → 11.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -5.5% | dentro | 11.64 → 11.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.9% | +4.6% | dentro | 10.52 → 11.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±16.3% | +7.2% | dentro | 10.26 → 11.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +7.6% | fora | 10.22 → 11.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +8.1% | dentro | 10.18 → 11.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 10.60 → 11.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +4.1% | dentro | 10.57 → 11.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +6.1% | dentro | 10.37 → 11.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +3.9% | dentro | 10.59 → 11.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +4.1% | dentro | 10.57 → 11.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +2.4% | dentro | 10.74 → 11.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±17.0% | +0.7% | dentro | 10.92 → 11.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±18.6% | +1.4% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +6.9% | dentro | 10.29 → 11.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 10.36 → 11.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +4.2% | dentro | 10.56 → 11.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.0% | -1.4% | fora | 11.44 → 11.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | -0.4% | dentro | 11.32 → 11.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | -2.7% | dentro | 11.59 → 11.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | -2.7% | dentro | 11.59 → 11.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -3.1% | dentro | 11.64 → 11.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +7.2% | fora | 10.52 → 11.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +9.9% | fora | 10.26 → 11.28 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.