BABA geschiedenis verwachte beweging Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Elke handelsdag na de sluiting leggen we vast wat de optiemarkt inprijst — per vervaldatum, voordat de uitkomst bekend is. Wanneer een vervaldatum passeert, wordt de uitkomst naast de oorspronkelijke schatting vermeld. Schattingen worden achteraf nooit herzien. Hoe deze statistieken te lezen · vastlegging sinds Aug 31, 2026
Vergelijkingen opgelost121
Sluiting binnen bandbreedte89%
|Werkelijk| onder verwacht89%
Gem. verwachte beweging±6.5%
Gem. |werkelijke| beweging2.7%
Gem. abs. fout4.2pt
Impliciet vs. gerealiseerd, per expiratie
Voor elke vervaldatum: de oranje omlijning is de expected move die het dichtst bij de vervaldatum is vastgelegd; de solide balk is wat het aandeel werkelijk heeft gedaan. Getekende waarden staan onder de balken vermeld.
verwacht (vastgelegd)werkelijk
Momenteel vastgelegd (uitkomst nog onbekend)
| Snapshot | Vervalt | DTE | Spot destijds | Expected move | Bereik | Methode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 108.80 | ±3.5% | 105.03–112.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 109.30 | ±4.0% | 104.95–113.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 110.69 | ±5.0% | 105.14–116.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 110.90 | ±5.1% | 105.23–116.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 111.23 | ±5.3% | 105.31–117.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 105.66 | ±5.7% | 99.69–111.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 107.17 | ±6.9% | 99.79–114.54 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 109.25 | ±6.4% | 102.30–116.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 110.88 | ±7.1% | 103.03–118.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 105.92 | ±6.7% | 98.80–113.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 107.52 | ±6.9% | 100.12–114.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 116.83 | ±9.7% | 105.53–128.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 116.79 | ±9.7% | 105.49–128.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 115.98 | ±11.0% | 103.23–128.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 113.85 | ±10.0% | 102.42–125.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 108.72 | ±10.3% | 97.55–119.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 107.10 | ±10.6% | 95.75–118.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 109.37 | ±11.1% | 97.24–121.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 109.16 | ±10.9% | 97.31–121.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 109.30 | ±10.7% | 97.65–120.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 108.69 | ±11.1% | 96.66–120.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 109.60 | ±11.1% | 97.40–121.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 112.65 | ±12.6% | 98.42–126.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 113.18 | ±12.1% | 99.45–126.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 113.20 | ±12.1% | 99.47–126.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 111.87 | ±12.0% | 98.40–125.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 108.80 | ±5.3% | 102.99–114.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 109.30 | ±5.8% | 102.98–115.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 110.69 | ±6.4% | 103.59–117.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 110.90 | ±6.6% | 103.55–118.25 | em-1.0 |
Vastgelegde snapshots
| Snapshot | Verlopen | Verwacht | Werkelijk | Binnen bereik? | Spot → slotkoers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.2% | binnen | 109.30 → 109.11 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | -1.4% | binnen | 110.69 → 109.11 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -1.6% | binnen | 110.90 → 109.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -1.9% | binnen | 111.23 → 109.11 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +3.3% | binnen | 105.66 → 109.11 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +1.8% | binnen | 107.17 → 109.11 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -0.1% | binnen | 109.25 → 109.11 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | -1.6% | binnen | 110.88 → 109.11 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +3.0% | binnen | 105.92 → 109.11 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +1.5% | binnen | 107.52 → 109.11 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -6.6% | binnen | 116.83 → 109.11 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -6.6% | binnen | 116.79 → 109.11 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -5.9% | binnen | 115.98 → 109.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | -4.2% | binnen | 113.85 → 109.11 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.7% | +0.4% | binnen | 108.72 → 109.11 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | +1.9% | binnen | 107.10 → 109.11 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -0.2% | binnen | 109.37 → 109.11 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -0.0% | binnen | 109.16 → 109.11 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -0.2% | binnen | 109.30 → 109.11 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.2% | +0.4% | binnen | 108.69 → 109.11 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -0.4% | binnen | 109.60 → 109.11 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | -3.1% | binnen | 112.65 → 109.11 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -3.6% | binnen | 113.18 → 109.11 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.5% | -3.6% | binnen | 113.20 → 109.11 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -2.5% | binnen | 111.87 → 109.11 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | -2.4% | binnen | 111.82 → 109.11 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -3.3% | binnen | 112.80 → 109.11 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -4.6% | binnen | 114.32 → 109.11 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | binnen | 111.23 → 111.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +5.4% | buiten | 105.66 → 111.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.9% | buiten | 107.17 → 111.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.9% | binnen | 109.25 → 111.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +0.4% | binnen | 110.88 → 111.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.1% | buiten | 105.92 → 111.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +3.6% | binnen | 107.52 → 111.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -4.7% | binnen | 116.83 → 111.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -4.6% | binnen | 116.79 → 111.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -4.0% | binnen | 115.98 → 111.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -2.2% | binnen | 113.85 → 111.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +2.4% | binnen | 108.72 → 111.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +4.0% | binnen | 107.10 → 111.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +1.8% | binnen | 109.37 → 111.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +2.0% | binnen | 109.16 → 111.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +1.9% | binnen | 109.30 → 111.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +2.5% | binnen | 108.69 → 111.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +1.6% | binnen | 109.60 → 111.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -1.1% | binnen | 112.65 → 111.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -1.6% | binnen | 113.18 → 111.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -1.6% | binnen | 113.20 → 111.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -0.5% | binnen | 111.87 → 111.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -0.4% | binnen | 111.82 → 111.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -1.3% | binnen | 112.80 → 111.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -2.6% | binnen | 114.32 → 111.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | binnen | 105.92 → 105.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -1.6% | binnen | 107.52 → 105.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -9.4% | buiten | 116.83 → 105.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -9.4% | buiten | 116.79 → 105.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -8.7% | buiten | 115.98 → 105.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -7.0% | buiten | 113.85 → 105.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -2.6% | binnen | 108.72 → 105.85 |
Uitkomsten vergelijken de geregistreerde bandbreedte met de slotkoers op de expiratiedag. De methodversie wordt per rij weergegeven waar deze afwijkt; huidig: em-1.0.