BABA riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan Alibaba Group Holding Limited
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan93
Tutup dalam rentang86%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi86%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±6.0%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|2.9%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut3.7pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 109.30 | ±0.3% | 109.00–109.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 110.69 | ±2.7% | 107.69–113.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 110.90 | ±3.0% | 107.57–114.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 111.23 | ±3.8% | 107.03–115.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 105.66 | ±4.1% | 101.29–110.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 107.17 | ±5.2% | 101.60–112.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 109.25 | ±4.9% | 103.89–114.61 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 110.88 | ±5.5% | 104.72–117.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 105.92 | ±5.2% | 100.37–111.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 107.52 | ±5.6% | 101.45–113.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 116.83 | ±8.7% | 106.63–127.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 116.79 | ±8.7% | 106.59–126.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 115.98 | ±9.9% | 104.56–127.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 113.85 | ±9.7% | 102.85–124.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 108.72 | ±9.7% | 98.22–119.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 107.10 | ±9.6% | 96.83–117.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 109.37 | ±9.9% | 98.59–120.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 109.16 | ±9.8% | 98.41–119.91 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 109.30 | ±9.9% | 98.53–120.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 108.69 | ±10.2% | 97.56–119.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 109.60 | ±10.3% | 98.33–120.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 112.65 | ±11.3% | 99.90–125.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 113.18 | ±11.5% | 100.20–126.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 113.20 | ±11.5% | 100.22–126.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 111.87 | ±11.1% | 99.42–124.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 111.82 | ±11.1% | 99.44–124.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 112.80 | ±11.6% | 99.72–125.88 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 114.32 | ±11.7% | 100.92–127.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 109.30 | ±4.0% | 104.95–113.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 110.69 | ±5.0% | 105.14–116.25 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | di dalam | 111.23 → 111.37 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +5.4% | di luar | 105.66 → 111.37 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +3.9% | di luar | 107.17 → 111.37 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | +1.9% | di dalam | 109.25 → 111.37 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +0.4% | di dalam | 110.88 → 111.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +5.1% | di luar | 105.92 → 111.37 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +3.6% | di dalam | 107.52 → 111.37 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -4.7% | di dalam | 116.83 → 111.37 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -4.6% | di dalam | 116.79 → 111.37 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -4.0% | di dalam | 115.98 → 111.37 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -2.2% | di dalam | 113.85 → 111.37 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | +2.4% | di dalam | 108.72 → 111.37 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | +4.0% | di dalam | 107.10 → 111.37 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +1.8% | di dalam | 109.37 → 111.37 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +2.0% | di dalam | 109.16 → 111.37 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +1.9% | di dalam | 109.30 → 111.37 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +2.5% | di dalam | 108.69 → 111.37 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +1.6% | di dalam | 109.60 → 111.37 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -1.1% | di dalam | 112.65 → 111.37 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -1.6% | di dalam | 113.18 → 111.37 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | -1.6% | di dalam | 113.20 → 111.37 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -0.5% | di dalam | 111.87 → 111.37 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -0.4% | di dalam | 111.82 → 111.37 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | -1.3% | di dalam | 112.80 → 111.37 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -2.6% | di dalam | 114.32 → 111.37 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | di dalam | 105.92 → 105.85 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -1.6% | di dalam | 107.52 → 105.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -9.4% | di luar | 116.83 → 105.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -9.4% | di luar | 116.79 → 105.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -8.7% | di luar | 115.98 → 105.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.9% | -7.0% | di luar | 113.85 → 105.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -2.6% | di dalam | 108.72 → 105.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -1.2% | di dalam | 107.10 → 105.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -3.2% | di dalam | 109.37 → 105.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -3.0% | di dalam | 109.16 → 105.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | -3.2% | di dalam | 109.30 → 105.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | -2.6% | di dalam | 108.69 → 105.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | -3.4% | di dalam | 109.60 → 105.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | -6.0% | di dalam | 112.65 → 105.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -6.5% | di dalam | 113.18 → 105.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | -6.5% | di dalam | 113.20 → 105.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -5.4% | di dalam | 111.87 → 105.85 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.9% | -5.3% | di dalam | 111.82 → 105.85 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -6.2% | di dalam | 112.80 → 105.85 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | -7.4% | di dalam | 114.32 → 105.85 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -6.1% | di luar | 116.83 → 109.74 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -6.0% | di luar | 116.79 → 109.74 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | -5.4% | di dalam | 115.98 → 109.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | -3.6% | di dalam | 113.85 → 109.74 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | +0.9% | di dalam | 108.72 → 109.74 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | +2.5% | di dalam | 107.10 → 109.74 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | +0.3% | di dalam | 109.37 → 109.74 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | +0.5% | di dalam | 109.16 → 109.74 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | +0.4% | di dalam | 109.30 → 109.74 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.7% | +1.0% | di dalam | 108.69 → 109.74 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | +0.1% | di dalam | 109.60 → 109.74 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -2.6% | di dalam | 112.65 → 109.74 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | -3.0% | di dalam | 113.18 → 109.74 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.7% | -3.1% | di dalam | 113.20 → 109.74 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -1.9% | di dalam | 111.87 → 109.74 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.