AXP 预期波动历史 American Express Company
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内54%
|实际值| 低于预期值54%
平均预期波动幅度±3.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度3.5%
平均绝对误差1.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 312.50 | ±0.5% | 310.84–314.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 307.18 | ±1.8% | 301.77–312.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 309.84 | ±2.1% | 303.46–316.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 308.20 | ±2.6% | 300.20–316.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 308.50 | ±3.2% | 298.60–318.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 304.25 | ±3.0% | 295.02–313.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 305.64 | ±3.1% | 296.24–315.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 304.29 | ±3.3% | 294.29–314.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 302.78 | ±3.8% | 291.25–314.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 301.75 | ±4.2% | 289.07–314.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 306.50 | ±5.0% | 291.05–321.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 306.47 | ±5.1% | 290.89–322.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 313.45 | ±4.9% | 298.00–328.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 311.51 | ±5.2% | 295.43–327.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 312.58 | ±5.4% | 295.73–329.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 312.81 | ±5.8% | 294.59–331.04 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 325.54 | ±5.8% | 306.51–344.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 326.07 | ±5.9% | 306.80–345.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 325.31 | ±5.9% | 305.96–344.66 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 320.92 | ±6.1% | 301.19–340.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 322.37 | ±6.3% | 302.17–342.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 327.39 | ±6.2% | 307.09–347.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 326.16 | ±6.2% | 305.79–346.54 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 327.15 | ±6.2% | 306.82–347.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 330.35 | ±6.3% | 309.55–351.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 329.79 | ±6.6% | 308.13–351.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 324.60 | ±6.8% | 302.57–346.62 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 331.95 | ±7.0% | 308.62–355.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 312.50 | ±4.8% | 297.60–327.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 307.18 | ±4.6% | 293.15–321.20 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 308.20 → 308.17 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 308.50 → 308.17 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 304.25 → 308.17 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 305.64 → 308.17 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.3% | 区间内 | 304.29 → 308.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 302.78 → 308.17 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 301.75 → 308.17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 306.50 → 308.17 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +0.6% | 区间内 | 306.47 → 308.17 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 313.45 → 308.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 311.51 → 308.17 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 312.58 → 308.17 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 312.81 → 308.17 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 325.54 → 308.17 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | 区间外 | 326.07 → 308.17 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 325.31 → 308.17 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 320.92 → 308.17 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 322.37 → 308.17 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 327.39 → 308.17 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 326.16 → 308.17 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -5.8% | 区间外 | 327.15 → 308.17 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 330.35 → 308.17 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 329.79 → 308.17 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 324.60 → 308.17 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 331.95 → 308.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | 区间内 | 302.78 → 302.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 301.75 → 302.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 306.50 → 302.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 306.47 → 302.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 313.45 → 302.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 311.51 → 302.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 312.58 → 302.78 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 312.81 → 302.78 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -7.0% | 区间外 | 325.54 → 302.78 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | -7.1% | 区间外 | 326.07 → 302.78 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | -6.9% | 区间外 | 325.31 → 302.78 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 320.92 → 302.78 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 322.37 → 302.78 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -7.5% | 区间外 | 327.39 → 302.78 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 326.16 → 302.78 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | -7.4% | 区间外 | 327.15 → 302.78 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -8.3% | 区间外 | 330.35 → 302.78 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -8.2% | 区间外 | 329.79 → 302.78 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 324.60 → 302.78 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 331.95 → 302.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.1% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 306.50 → 308.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.1% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 306.47 → 308.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.2% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 313.45 → 308.89 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 311.51 → 308.89 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.7% | -1.2% | 区间内 | 312.58 → 308.89 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -1.3% | 区间内 | 312.81 → 308.89 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 325.54 → 308.89 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 326.07 → 308.89 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 325.31 → 308.89 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 320.92 → 308.89 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -4.2% | 区间外 | 322.37 → 308.89 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -5.7% | 区间外 | 327.39 → 308.89 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.1% | -5.3% | 区间外 | 326.16 → 308.89 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.2% | -5.6% | 区间外 | 327.15 → 308.89 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -6.5% | 区间外 | 330.35 → 308.89 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.