AXP histórico de movimento esperado American Express Company
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo63%
|Real| abaixo do esperado63%
Movimento esperado médio±3.8%
Movimento |real| médio3.3%
Erro médio absoluto1.5pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 316.41 | ±4.5% | 302.19–330.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 312.50 | ±4.8% | 297.60–327.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 307.18 | ±4.6% | 293.15–321.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 309.84 | ±5.0% | 294.24–325.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 308.20 | ±5.5% | 291.30–325.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 308.50 | ±6.1% | 289.73–327.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 304.25 | ±5.5% | 287.57–320.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 305.64 | ±5.7% | 288.26–323.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 304.29 | ±5.6% | 287.26–321.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 302.78 | ±5.9% | 284.88–320.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 301.75 | ±6.1% | 283.20–320.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 306.50 | ±6.9% | 285.40–327.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 306.47 | ±7.0% | 285.14–327.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 313.45 | ±6.7% | 292.58–334.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 311.51 | ±6.9% | 290.06–332.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 312.58 | ±7.1% | 290.50–334.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 312.81 | ±7.3% | 290.01–335.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 325.54 | ±7.5% | 301.19–349.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 326.07 | ±7.4% | 301.94–350.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 325.31 | ±7.6% | 300.61–350.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 320.92 | ±7.7% | 296.25–345.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 322.37 | ±7.8% | 297.12–347.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 327.39 | ±7.7% | 302.06–352.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 326.16 | ±7.8% | 300.58–351.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 327.15 | ±7.7% | 301.88–352.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 330.35 | ±7.6% | 305.12–355.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 316.41 | ±5.3% | 299.56–333.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 312.50 | ±5.5% | 295.35–329.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 307.18 | ±5.5% | 290.40–323.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 309.84 | ±5.8% | 291.99–327.69 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 312.50 → 313.59 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +2.1% | fora | 307.18 → 313.59 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 309.84 → 313.59 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +1.7% | dentro | 308.20 → 313.59 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +1.6% | dentro | 308.50 → 313.59 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +3.1% | fora | 304.25 → 313.59 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 305.64 → 313.59 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +3.1% | dentro | 304.29 → 313.59 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | +3.6% | dentro | 302.78 → 313.59 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +3.9% | dentro | 301.75 → 313.59 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 306.50 → 313.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +2.3% | dentro | 306.47 → 313.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +0.0% | dentro | 313.45 → 313.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 311.51 → 313.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 312.58 → 313.59 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +0.2% | dentro | 312.81 → 313.59 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -3.7% | dentro | 325.54 → 313.59 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -3.8% | dentro | 326.07 → 313.59 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -3.6% | dentro | 325.31 → 313.59 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -2.3% | dentro | 320.92 → 313.59 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -2.7% | dentro | 322.37 → 313.59 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -4.2% | dentro | 327.39 → 313.59 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -3.9% | dentro | 326.16 → 313.59 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -4.1% | dentro | 327.15 → 313.59 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -5.1% | dentro | 330.35 → 313.59 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 329.79 → 313.59 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -3.4% | dentro | 324.60 → 313.59 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -5.5% | dentro | 331.95 → 313.59 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.0% | dentro | 308.20 → 308.17 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 308.50 → 308.17 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +1.3% | dentro | 304.25 → 308.17 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 305.64 → 308.17 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +1.3% | dentro | 304.29 → 308.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 302.78 → 308.17 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 301.75 → 308.17 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | +0.5% | dentro | 306.50 → 308.17 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +0.6% | dentro | 306.47 → 308.17 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -1.7% | dentro | 313.45 → 308.17 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -1.1% | dentro | 311.51 → 308.17 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.6% | -1.4% | dentro | 312.58 → 308.17 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 312.81 → 308.17 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -5.3% | fora | 325.54 → 308.17 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.5% | fora | 326.07 → 308.17 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | -5.3% | fora | 325.31 → 308.17 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | -4.0% | dentro | 320.92 → 308.17 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -4.4% | dentro | 322.37 → 308.17 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -5.9% | fora | 327.39 → 308.17 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -5.5% | dentro | 326.16 → 308.17 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -5.8% | fora | 327.15 → 308.17 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.7% | fora | 330.35 → 308.17 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | -6.6% | fora | 329.79 → 308.17 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -5.1% | dentro | 324.60 → 308.17 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -7.2% | fora | 331.95 → 308.17 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.0% | dentro | 302.78 → 302.78 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.3% | +0.3% | dentro | 301.75 → 302.78 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 306.50 → 302.78 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 306.47 → 302.78 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.4% | -3.4% | dentro | 313.45 → 302.78 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -2.8% | dentro | 311.51 → 302.78 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | -3.1% | dentro | 312.58 → 302.78 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.