AVGO historial de movimiento esperado Broadcom Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas192
Cierre dentro del rango78%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado78%
Movimiento esperado promedio±5.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.8%
Error medio abs.3.1pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 330.22 | ±0.4% | 328.76–331.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 345.25 | ±3.2% | 334.35–356.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 356.98 | ±3.3% | 345.06–368.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 362.05 | ±3.9% | 347.88–376.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 361.62 | ±4.6% | 345.14–378.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 375.88 | ±4.6% | 358.43–393.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 377.20 | ±4.8% | 359.00–395.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 362.45 | ±4.9% | 344.58–380.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 355.17 | ±5.2% | 336.55–373.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 345.44 | ±5.7% | 325.87–365.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 366.12 | ±7.5% | 338.80–393.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 364.22 | ±7.5% | 336.89–391.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 362.79 | ±7.8% | 334.62–390.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 357.36 | ±7.7% | 329.76–384.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 348.45 | ±7.7% | 321.52–375.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 339.70 | ±8.2% | 312.00–367.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 339.70 | ±8.2% | 311.73–367.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 345.50 | ±8.6% | 315.62–375.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 361.45 | ±8.5% | 330.77–392.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 360.81 | ±9.2% | 327.66–393.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 364.17 | ±9.6% | 329.12–399.22 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 367.64 | ±10.1% | 330.62–404.67 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 357.07 | ±10.0% | 321.49–392.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 357.51 | ±10.0% | 321.94–393.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 356.79 | ±10.0% | 321.14–392.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 374.13 | ±12.4% | 327.61–420.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 371.06 | ±13.2% | 322.11–420.01 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 370.19 | ±13.3% | 321.09–419.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 330.22 | ±2.1% | 323.13–337.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 345.25 | ±3.6% | 332.93–357.57 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 345.25 → 346.25 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.1% | -3.0% | fuera | 356.98 → 346.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -4.4% | fuera | 362.05 → 346.25 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -4.2% | fuera | 361.62 → 346.25 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.6% | -7.9% | fuera | 375.88 → 346.25 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.9% | -8.2% | fuera | 377.20 → 346.25 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.1% | -4.5% | fuera | 362.45 → 346.25 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 355.17 → 346.25 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 345.44 → 346.25 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.7% | -2.0% | fuera | 362.05 → 354.73 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.6% | -1.9% | dentro | 361.62 → 354.73 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | -5.6% | fuera | 375.88 → 354.73 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.4% | -6.0% | fuera | 377.20 → 354.73 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.4% | -2.1% | dentro | 362.45 → 354.73 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 355.17 → 354.73 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.3% | +2.7% | dentro | 345.44 → 354.73 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 362.05 → 361.54 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.9% | -0.0% | dentro | 361.62 → 361.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | -3.8% | fuera | 375.88 → 361.54 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -4.2% | fuera | 377.20 → 361.54 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -0.3% | dentro | 362.45 → 361.54 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 355.17 → 361.54 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | +4.7% | fuera | 345.44 → 361.54 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -1.3% | dentro | 366.12 → 361.54 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -0.7% | dentro | 364.22 → 361.54 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 362.79 → 361.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +1.2% | dentro | 357.36 → 361.54 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +3.8% | dentro | 348.45 → 361.54 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +6.4% | dentro | 339.70 → 361.54 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +6.4% | dentro | 339.70 → 361.54 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +4.6% | dentro | 345.50 → 361.54 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 361.45 → 361.54 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 360.81 → 361.54 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -0.7% | dentro | 364.17 → 361.54 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -1.7% | dentro | 367.64 → 361.54 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 357.07 → 361.54 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 357.51 → 361.54 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +1.3% | dentro | 356.79 → 361.54 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -3.4% | dentro | 374.13 → 361.54 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 371.06 → 361.54 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 370.19 → 361.54 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 375.88 → 376.51 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.8% | -0.2% | dentro | 377.20 → 376.51 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.2% | +3.9% | fuera | 362.45 → 376.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.9% | +6.0% | fuera | 355.17 → 376.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.2% | +9.0% | fuera | 345.44 → 376.51 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 362.45 → 362.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.7% | +2.1% | fuera | 355.17 → 362.51 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±2.4% | +4.9% | fuera | 345.44 → 362.51 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±5.1% | -1.0% | dentro | 366.12 → 362.51 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±5.2% | -0.5% | dentro | 364.22 → 362.51 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±5.5% | -0.1% | dentro | 362.79 → 362.51 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 355.17 → 355.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | +2.8% | fuera | 345.44 → 355.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -3.0% | dentro | 366.12 → 355.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 364.22 → 355.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 362.79 → 355.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | -0.6% | dentro | 357.36 → 355.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.3% | +1.9% | dentro | 348.45 → 355.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +4.5% | dentro | 339.70 → 355.14 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.