ASML 预期波动历史 ASML Holding N.V.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内63%
|实际值| 低于预期值63%
平均预期波动幅度±5.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.9%
平均绝对误差3.3pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 1,645.00 | ±0.4% | 1,638.42–1,651.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 1,649.00 | ±3.7% | 1,588.05–1,709.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 1,717.75 | ±5.4% | 1,624.70–1,810.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 1,783.07 | ±6.1% | 1,674.92–1,891.22 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 1,777.21 | ±6.9% | 1,655.46–1,898.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 1,804.96 | ±6.5% | 1,687.96–1,921.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 1,836.48 | ±6.7% | 1,714.33–1,958.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 1,860.00 | ±7.1% | 1,728.25–1,991.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 1,864.40 | ±7.4% | 1,726.25–2,002.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 1,808.06 | ±8.1% | 1,661.61–1,954.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 1,748.00 | ±9.7% | 1,579.25–1,916.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 1,745.00 | ±9.7% | 1,576.25–1,913.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 1,711.36 | ±9.6% | 1,547.26–1,875.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 1,673.00 | ±9.9% | 1,507.90–1,838.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 1,628.00 | ±9.7% | 1,470.45–1,785.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 1,603.00 | ±10.4% | 1,436.50–1,769.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 1,592.64 | ±10.5% | 1,426.19–1,759.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 1,583.50 | ±10.4% | 1,418.45–1,748.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 1,699.80 | ±10.7% | 1,518.60–1,881.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 1,688.14 | ±11.2% | 1,499.79–1,876.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 1,728.90 | ±11.5% | 1,529.95–1,927.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 1,771.76 | ±12.3% | 1,554.65–1,988.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 1,711.00 | ±12.0% | 1,505.65–1,916.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 1,709.50 | ±11.8% | 1,507.25–1,911.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 1,647.19 | ±11.6% | 1,455.59–1,838.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 1,680.65 | ±11.7% | 1,483.35–1,877.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 1,669.00 | ±11.7% | 1,473.05–1,864.95 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 1,696.01 | ±12.0% | 1,492.56–1,899.46 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 1,645.00 | ±4.8% | 1,566.80–1,723.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 1,649.00 | ±5.5% | 1,557.60–1,740.40 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 1,783.07 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 1,777.21 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.3% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 1,804.96 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | -3.1% | 区间外 | 1,836.48 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.2% | -4.3% | 区间外 | 1,860.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -4.5% | 区间外 | 1,864.40 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.4% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 1,808.06 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 1,748.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 1,745.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | +4.0% | 区间内 | 1,711.36 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 1,673.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 1,628.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.4% | +11.1% | 区间外 | 1,603.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +11.8% | 区间外 | 1,592.64 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +12.4% | 区间外 | 1,583.50 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +4.7% | 区间内 | 1,699.80 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.4% | +5.5% | 区间内 | 1,688.14 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 1,728.90 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 1,771.76 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 1,711.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +4.1% | 区间内 | 1,709.50 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +8.1% | 区间内 | 1,647.19 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 1,680.65 → 1,780.34 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 1,669.00 → 1,780.34 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.3% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 1,696.01 → 1,780.34 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 1,864.40 → 1,867.31 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | +3.3% | 区间外 | 1,808.06 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +6.8% | 区间外 | 1,748.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | +7.0% | 区间外 | 1,745.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.8% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 1,711.36 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.2% | +11.6% | 区间外 | 1,673.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | +14.7% | 区间外 | 1,628.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | +16.5% | 区间外 | 1,603.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +17.2% | 区间外 | 1,592.64 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +17.9% | 区间外 | 1,583.50 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | +9.9% | 区间外 | 1,699.80 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.3% | +10.6% | 区间外 | 1,688.14 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +8.0% | 区间内 | 1,728.90 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 1,771.76 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | +9.1% | 区间外 | 1,711.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.8% | +9.2% | 区间外 | 1,709.50 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.5% | +13.4% | 区间外 | 1,647.19 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | +11.1% | 区间外 | 1,680.65 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.0% | +11.9% | 区间外 | 1,669.00 → 1,867.31 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 1,696.01 → 1,867.31 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.2% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 1,748.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 1,745.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.6% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 1,711.36 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | +4.2% | 区间内 | 1,673.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.4% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 1,628.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.4% | +8.8% | 区间外 | 1,603.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 1,592.64 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +10.1% | 区间外 | 1,583.50 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.9% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 1,699.80 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.8% | +3.3% | 区间内 | 1,688.14 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | +0.9% | 区间内 | 1,728.90 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.9% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 1,771.76 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 1,711.00 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | +2.0% | 区间内 | 1,709.50 → 1,743.94 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +5.9% | 区间内 | 1,647.19 → 1,743.94 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.