ARM historial de movimiento esperado Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango40%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado40%
Movimiento esperado promedio±10.2%
Movimiento |real| promedio13.1%
Error medio abs.7.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 228.06 | ±6.0% | 214.28–241.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 228.61 | ±7.6% | 211.13–246.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 237.00 | ±8.8% | 216.07–257.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 256.50 | ±8.3% | 235.32–277.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 266.25 | ±8.9% | 242.60–289.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 276.16 | ±9.9% | 248.74–303.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 295.10 | ±10.3% | 264.85–325.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 302.40 | ±10.9% | 269.45–335.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 303.50 | ±11.5% | 268.50–338.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 308.20 | ±12.6% | 269.35–347.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 293.52 | ±12.8% | 256.00–331.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 332.75 | ±17.4% | 274.85–390.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 331.48 | ±17.3% | 274.08–388.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 322.41 | ±18.1% | 263.96–380.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 274.39 | ±16.6% | 228.89–319.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 265.89 | ±16.8% | 221.17–310.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 242.92 | ±16.6% | 202.50–283.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 241.30 | ±16.8% | 200.85–281.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 240.90 | ±17.0% | 199.88–281.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 265.34 | ±17.5% | 218.91–311.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 253.39 | ±18.0% | 207.87–298.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 264.06 | ±18.4% | 215.58–312.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 261.53 | ±19.2% | 211.41–311.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 252.42 | ±18.3% | 206.15–298.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 251.66 | ±17.7% | 207.09–296.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 242.41 | ±17.4% | 200.19–284.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 228.06 | ±9.6% | 206.13–249.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 228.61 | ±11.1% | 203.34–253.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 237.00 | ±11.5% | 209.85–264.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 256.50 | ±10.8% | 228.90–284.10 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | -0.4% | dentro | 228.61 → 227.80 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -3.9% | dentro | 237.00 → 227.80 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -11.2% | fuera | 256.50 → 227.80 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | -14.4% | fuera | 266.25 → 227.80 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -17.5% | fuera | 276.16 → 227.80 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -22.8% | fuera | 295.10 → 227.80 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -24.7% | fuera | 302.40 → 227.80 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -24.9% | fuera | 303.50 → 227.80 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.0% | -26.1% | fuera | 308.20 → 227.80 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -22.4% | fuera | 293.52 → 227.80 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.3% | -31.5% | fuera | 332.75 → 227.80 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -31.3% | fuera | 331.48 → 227.80 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -29.3% | fuera | 322.41 → 227.80 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -17.0% | fuera | 274.39 → 227.80 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.3% | -14.3% | dentro | 265.89 → 227.80 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -6.2% | dentro | 242.92 → 227.80 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.8% | -5.6% | dentro | 241.30 → 227.80 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.1% | -5.4% | dentro | 240.90 → 227.80 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.2% | -14.1% | dentro | 265.34 → 227.80 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -10.1% | dentro | 253.39 → 227.80 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.5% | -13.7% | dentro | 264.06 → 227.80 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.7% | -12.9% | dentro | 261.53 → 227.80 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.9% | -9.8% | dentro | 252.42 → 227.80 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | -9.5% | dentro | 251.66 → 227.80 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -6.0% | dentro | 242.41 → 227.80 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.7% | -3.2% | dentro | 235.44 → 227.80 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.8% | -3.1% | dentro | 235.21 → 227.80 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.4% | -5.6% | dentro | 241.29 → 227.80 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 266.25 → 266.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -3.6% | fuera | 276.16 → 266.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -9.8% | fuera | 295.10 → 266.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -11.9% | fuera | 302.40 → 266.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -12.3% | fuera | 303.50 → 266.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -13.6% | fuera | 308.20 → 266.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -9.3% | fuera | 293.52 → 266.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -20.0% | fuera | 332.75 → 266.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -19.7% | fuera | 331.48 → 266.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -17.4% | fuera | 322.41 → 266.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -3.0% | dentro | 274.39 → 266.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 265.89 → 266.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +9.6% | dentro | 242.92 → 266.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +10.4% | dentro | 241.30 → 266.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +10.5% | dentro | 240.90 → 266.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +0.4% | dentro | 265.34 → 266.28 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | +5.1% | dentro | 253.39 → 266.28 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 264.06 → 266.28 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 261.53 → 266.28 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +5.5% | dentro | 252.42 → 266.28 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | +5.8% | dentro | 251.66 → 266.28 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | +9.8% | dentro | 242.41 → 266.28 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +13.1% | dentro | 235.44 → 266.28 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +13.2% | dentro | 235.21 → 266.28 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +10.4% | dentro | 241.29 → 266.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 308.20 → 307.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +4.8% | fuera | 293.52 → 307.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -7.6% | dentro | 332.75 → 307.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -7.2% | dentro | 331.48 → 307.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | -4.6% | dentro | 322.41 → 307.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +12.1% | fuera | 274.39 → 307.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +15.6% | fuera | 265.89 → 307.49 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.