ARM histórico de movimento esperado Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas93
Fechar dentro do intervalo35%
|Real| abaixo do esperado35%
Movimento esperado médio±9.4%
Movimento |real| médio12.8%
Erro médio absoluto6.8pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 228.61 | ±0.4% | 227.63–229.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 237.00 | ±5.2% | 224.60–249.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 256.50 | ±5.6% | 242.15–270.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 266.25 | ±6.3% | 249.50–283.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 276.16 | ±7.5% | 255.49–296.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 295.10 | ±7.8% | 272.15–318.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 302.40 | ±8.3% | 277.45–327.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 303.50 | ±8.8% | 276.90–330.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 308.20 | ±10.0% | 277.50–338.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 293.52 | ±10.4% | 263.02–324.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 332.75 | ±15.3% | 281.93–383.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 331.48 | ±15.1% | 281.28–381.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 322.41 | ±16.3% | 269.76–375.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 274.39 | ±14.9% | 233.39–315.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 265.89 | ±15.3% | 225.22–306.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 242.92 | ±14.5% | 207.75–278.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 241.30 | ±14.8% | 205.70–276.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 240.90 | ±15.1% | 204.55–277.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 265.34 | ±16.2% | 222.47–308.21 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 253.39 | ±16.3% | 211.97–294.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 264.06 | ±16.5% | 220.43–307.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 261.53 | ±17.7% | 215.31–307.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 252.42 | ±16.9% | 209.77–295.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 251.66 | ±16.3% | 210.69–292.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 242.41 | ±16.4% | 202.56–282.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 235.44 | ±16.7% | 196.01–274.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 235.21 | ±16.8% | 195.71–274.71 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 241.29 | ±16.4% | 201.69–280.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 228.61 | ±7.6% | 211.13–246.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 237.00 | ±8.8% | 216.07–257.93 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 266.25 → 266.28 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.0% | -3.6% | fora | 276.16 → 266.28 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | -9.8% | fora | 295.10 → 266.28 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -11.9% | fora | 302.40 → 266.28 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | -12.3% | fora | 303.50 → 266.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.9% | -13.6% | fora | 308.20 → 266.28 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -9.3% | fora | 293.52 → 266.28 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -20.0% | fora | 332.75 → 266.28 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -19.7% | fora | 331.48 → 266.28 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | -17.4% | fora | 322.41 → 266.28 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -3.0% | dentro | 274.39 → 266.28 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 265.89 → 266.28 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +9.6% | dentro | 242.92 → 266.28 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +10.4% | dentro | 241.30 → 266.28 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | +10.5% | dentro | 240.90 → 266.28 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.2% | +0.4% | dentro | 265.34 → 266.28 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.7% | +5.1% | dentro | 253.39 → 266.28 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 264.06 → 266.28 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 261.53 → 266.28 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.3% | +5.5% | dentro | 252.42 → 266.28 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | +5.8% | dentro | 251.66 → 266.28 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.8% | +9.8% | dentro | 242.41 → 266.28 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.0% | +13.1% | dentro | 235.44 → 266.28 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +13.2% | dentro | 235.21 → 266.28 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +10.4% | dentro | 241.29 → 266.28 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 308.20 → 307.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +4.8% | fora | 293.52 → 307.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -7.6% | dentro | 332.75 → 307.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.3% | -7.2% | dentro | 331.48 → 307.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | -4.6% | dentro | 322.41 → 307.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +12.1% | fora | 274.39 → 307.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.8% | +15.6% | fora | 265.89 → 307.49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.9% | +26.6% | fora | 242.92 → 307.49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | +27.4% | fora | 241.30 → 307.49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.7% | +27.6% | fora | 240.90 → 307.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.4% | +15.9% | fora | 265.34 → 307.49 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | +21.4% | fora | 253.39 → 307.49 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.3% | +16.4% | fora | 264.06 → 307.49 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±14.2% | +17.6% | fora | 261.53 → 307.49 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.7% | +21.8% | fora | 252.42 → 307.49 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.0% | +22.2% | fora | 251.66 → 307.49 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.1% | +26.8% | fora | 242.41 → 307.49 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.6% | +30.6% | fora | 235.44 → 307.49 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.6% | +30.7% | fora | 235.21 → 307.49 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.9% | +27.4% | fora | 241.29 → 307.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -6.7% | fora | 332.75 → 310.32 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | -6.4% | fora | 331.48 → 310.32 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.8% | -3.8% | dentro | 322.41 → 310.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +13.1% | fora | 274.39 → 310.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | +16.7% | fora | 265.89 → 310.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | +27.7% | fora | 242.92 → 310.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.0% | +28.6% | fora | 241.30 → 310.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | +28.8% | fora | 240.90 → 310.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.0% | +17.0% | fora | 265.34 → 310.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.4% | +22.5% | fora | 253.39 → 310.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.9% | +17.5% | fora | 264.06 → 310.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.9% | +18.7% | fora | 261.53 → 310.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.6% | +22.9% | fora | 252.42 → 310.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.3% | +23.3% | fora | 251.66 → 310.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.2% | +28.0% | fora | 242.41 → 310.32 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.