ARKK histórico de movimento esperado ARK Innovation ETF
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo69%
|Real| abaixo do esperado69%
Movimento esperado médio±5.6%
Movimento |real| médio4.4%
Erro médio absoluto2.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 83.03 | ±2.8% | 80.71–85.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 82.21 | ±3.4% | 79.44–84.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 81.99 | ±4.1% | 78.59–85.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 84.20 | ±4.2% | 80.67–87.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 87.19 | ±4.2% | 83.51–90.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 89.77 | ±4.7% | 85.55–93.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 87.60 | ±5.2% | 83.06–92.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 88.30 | ±5.5% | 83.48–93.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 90.35 | ±5.8% | 85.12–95.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 92.90 | ±5.9% | 87.44–98.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 89.84 | ±6.4% | 84.08–95.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 88.58 | ±6.8% | 82.53–94.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 91.59 | ±7.9% | 84.31–98.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 91.43 | ±8.0% | 84.16–98.70 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 90.77 | ±8.3% | 83.25–98.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 87.69 | ±8.5% | 80.22–95.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 86.79 | ±8.8% | 79.19–94.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 84.46 | ±9.1% | 76.78–92.14 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 83.54 | ±9.0% | 76.02–91.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 84.91 | ±9.1% | 77.21–92.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 83.80 | ±9.8% | 75.58–92.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 84.32 | ±10.6% | 75.39–93.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 86.08 | ±10.6% | 76.95–95.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 85.90 | ±10.8% | 76.65–95.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 86.22 | ±10.7% | 76.97–95.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 86.07 | ±10.6% | 76.94–95.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 86.93 | ±10.3% | 77.95–95.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 30 | 10 | 83.03 | ±5.0% | 78.92–87.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 82.21 | ±5.6% | 77.61–86.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 81.99 | ±6.7% | 76.47–87.50 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 81.99 → 81.65 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.2% | -3.0% | fora | 84.20 → 81.65 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | -6.4% | fora | 87.19 → 81.65 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -9.0% | fora | 89.77 → 81.65 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -6.8% | fora | 87.60 → 81.65 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -7.5% | fora | 88.30 → 81.65 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.3% | -9.6% | fora | 90.35 → 81.65 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -12.1% | fora | 92.90 → 81.65 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -9.1% | fora | 89.84 → 81.65 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -7.8% | fora | 88.58 → 81.65 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -10.9% | fora | 91.59 → 81.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -10.7% | fora | 91.43 → 81.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -10.0% | fora | 90.77 → 81.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -6.9% | dentro | 87.69 → 81.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -5.9% | dentro | 86.79 → 81.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -3.3% | dentro | 84.46 → 81.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -2.3% | dentro | 83.54 → 81.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -3.8% | dentro | 84.91 → 81.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -2.6% | dentro | 83.80 → 81.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -3.2% | dentro | 84.32 → 81.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 86.08 → 81.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -4.9% | dentro | 85.90 → 81.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | -5.3% | dentro | 86.22 → 81.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -5.1% | dentro | 86.07 → 81.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -6.1% | dentro | 86.93 → 81.65 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 82.77 → 81.65 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 83.42 → 81.65 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.1% | -4.3% | dentro | 85.36 → 81.65 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | dentro | 89.77 → 89.62 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +2.3% | fora | 87.60 → 89.62 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.5% | dentro | 88.30 → 89.62 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | -0.8% | dentro | 90.35 → 89.62 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -3.5% | fora | 92.90 → 89.62 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -0.2% | dentro | 89.84 → 89.62 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 88.58 → 89.62 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -2.2% | dentro | 91.59 → 89.62 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -2.0% | dentro | 91.43 → 89.62 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -1.3% | dentro | 90.77 → 89.62 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +2.2% | dentro | 87.69 → 89.62 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +3.3% | dentro | 86.79 → 89.62 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +6.1% | dentro | 84.46 → 89.62 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.2% | +7.3% | fora | 83.54 → 89.62 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.3% | +5.5% | dentro | 84.91 → 89.62 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | +6.9% | dentro | 83.80 → 89.62 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +6.3% | dentro | 84.32 → 89.62 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.7% | +4.1% | dentro | 86.08 → 89.62 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +4.3% | dentro | 85.90 → 89.62 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | +3.9% | dentro | 86.22 → 89.62 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | +4.1% | dentro | 86.07 → 89.62 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | +3.1% | dentro | 86.93 → 89.62 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +8.3% | dentro | 82.77 → 89.62 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | +7.4% | dentro | 83.42 → 89.62 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | +5.0% | dentro | 85.36 → 89.62 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | -0.0% | dentro | 89.84 → 89.83 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 88.58 → 89.83 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.9% | dentro | 91.59 → 89.83 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 91.43 → 89.83 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 90.77 → 89.83 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.0% | +2.4% | dentro | 87.69 → 89.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.4% | +3.5% | dentro | 86.79 → 89.83 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.