APP historial de movimiento esperado AppLovin Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango56%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado56%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.5%
Movimiento |real| promedio8.4%
Error medio abs.3.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 269.39 | ±4.7% | 256.84–281.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 266.30 | ±5.7% | 251.10–281.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 261.50 | ±6.8% | 243.80–279.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 272.28 | ±7.8% | 250.98–293.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 277.01 | ±7.6% | 255.96–298.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 279.65 | ±8.7% | 255.35–303.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 280.56 | ±8.4% | 256.86–304.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 278.98 | ±9.1% | 253.48–304.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 282.60 | ±10.4% | 253.25–311.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 268.04 | ±9.6% | 242.24–293.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 281.25 | ±10.9% | 250.50–312.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 328.40 | ±12.8% | 286.30–370.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 328.00 | ±12.8% | 285.90–370.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 329.53 | ±13.6% | 284.83–374.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 308.90 | ±13.7% | 266.50–351.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 320.99 | ±13.1% | 278.89–363.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 326.60 | ±13.6% | 282.25–370.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 331.50 | ±14.1% | 284.80–378.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 333.10 | ±14.2% | 285.80–380.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 323.66 | ±15.2% | 274.61–372.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 314.72 | ±15.7% | 265.32–364.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 305.60 | ±15.0% | 259.75–351.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 312.00 | ±15.8% | 262.65–361.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 320.45 | ±16.7% | 266.95–373.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 320.63 | ±16.7% | 267.13–374.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 313.27 | ±16.1% | 262.92–363.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 269.39 | ±7.3% | 249.64–289.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 266.30 | ±8.9% | 242.50–290.10 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 261.50 | ±9.9% | 235.60–287.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 272.28 | ±10.3% | 244.18–300.38 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | -0.1% | dentro | 266.30 → 266.13 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +1.8% | dentro | 261.50 → 266.13 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | -2.3% | dentro | 272.28 → 266.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | -3.9% | dentro | 277.01 → 266.13 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.8% | dentro | 279.65 → 266.13 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -5.1% | dentro | 280.56 → 266.13 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -4.6% | dentro | 278.98 → 266.13 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.9% | -5.8% | dentro | 282.60 → 266.13 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 268.04 → 266.13 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -5.4% | dentro | 281.25 → 266.13 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -19.0% | fuera | 328.40 → 266.13 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -18.9% | fuera | 328.00 → 266.13 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -19.2% | fuera | 329.53 → 266.13 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -13.8% | fuera | 308.90 → 266.13 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -17.1% | fuera | 320.99 → 266.13 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -18.5% | fuera | 326.60 → 266.13 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -19.7% | fuera | 331.50 → 266.13 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.8% | -20.1% | fuera | 333.10 → 266.13 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -17.8% | fuera | 323.66 → 266.13 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | -15.4% | fuera | 314.72 → 266.13 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -12.9% | dentro | 305.60 → 266.13 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | -14.7% | fuera | 312.00 → 266.13 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | -17.0% | fuera | 320.45 → 266.13 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.2% | -17.0% | fuera | 320.63 → 266.13 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -15.0% | fuera | 313.27 → 266.13 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -16.5% | fuera | 318.86 → 266.13 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.4% | -14.5% | dentro | 311.30 → 266.13 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | -14.6% | dentro | 311.80 → 266.13 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 277.01 → 277.04 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 279.65 → 277.04 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -1.3% | dentro | 280.56 → 277.04 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.1% | -0.7% | dentro | 278.98 → 277.04 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | -2.0% | dentro | 282.60 → 277.04 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 268.04 → 277.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | -1.5% | dentro | 281.25 → 277.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -15.6% | fuera | 328.40 → 277.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | -15.5% | fuera | 328.00 → 277.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -15.9% | fuera | 329.53 → 277.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -10.3% | dentro | 308.90 → 277.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | -13.7% | fuera | 320.99 → 277.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | -15.2% | fuera | 326.60 → 277.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -16.4% | fuera | 331.50 → 277.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -16.8% | fuera | 333.10 → 277.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -14.4% | fuera | 323.66 → 277.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -12.0% | dentro | 314.72 → 277.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -9.3% | dentro | 305.60 → 277.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -11.2% | dentro | 312.00 → 277.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -13.5% | fuera | 320.45 → 277.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -13.6% | fuera | 320.63 → 277.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | -11.6% | dentro | 313.27 → 277.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.6% | -13.1% | dentro | 318.86 → 277.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.5% | -11.0% | dentro | 311.30 → 277.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.9% | -11.1% | dentro | 311.80 → 277.04 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.4% | +0.1% | dentro | 268.04 → 268.22 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | -4.6% | fuera | 281.25 → 268.22 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -18.3% | fuera | 328.40 → 268.22 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -18.2% | fuera | 328.00 → 268.22 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -18.6% | fuera | 329.53 → 268.22 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | -13.2% | fuera | 308.90 → 268.22 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.7% | -16.4% | fuera | 320.99 → 268.22 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.