AMZN 预期波动历史 Amazon.com, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项1
收盘价处于区间内100%
|实际值| 低于预期值100%
平均预期波动幅度±0.2%
平均|实际|波动幅度0.1%
平均绝对误差0.1pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 02 | Sep 02 | 0 | 255.18 | ±0.2% | 254.68–255.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 02 | 1 | 254.93 | ±1.2% | 251.86–257.99 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 02 | 2 | 260.08 | ±1.7% | 255.59–264.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 04 | 2 | 255.18 | ±1.9% | 250.38–259.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 04 | 3 | 254.93 | ±2.1% | 249.49–260.36 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 04 | 4 | 260.08 | ±2.6% | 253.28–266.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 09 | 7 | 255.18 | ±2.8% | 248.03–262.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 09 | 8 | 254.93 | ±3.0% | 247.38–262.48 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 09 | 9 | 260.08 | ±3.3% | 251.50–268.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 11 | 9 | 255.18 | ±3.4% | 246.56–263.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 11 | 10 | 254.93 | ±3.6% | 245.75–264.10 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 11 | 11 | 260.08 | ±3.9% | 249.93–270.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 14 | 12 | 255.18 | ±3.6% | 245.93–264.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 14 | 13 | 254.93 | ±4.0% | 244.78–265.08 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 14 | 14 | 260.08 | ±4.1% | 249.43–270.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 16 | 14 | 255.18 | ±4.2% | 244.58–265.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 16 | 15 | 254.93 | ±4.3% | 243.95–265.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 18 | 16 | 255.18 | ±4.7% | 243.16–267.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 18 | 17 | 254.93 | ±4.9% | 242.53–267.33 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 18 | 18 | 260.08 | ±5.0% | 247.16–273.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Sep 25 | 23 | 255.18 | ±5.7% | 240.68–269.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Sep 25 | 24 | 254.93 | ±5.8% | 240.18–269.68 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Sep 25 | 25 | 260.08 | ±5.9% | 244.66–275.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 02 | 30 | 255.18 | ±6.5% | 238.53–271.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 02 | 31 | 254.93 | ±6.7% | 237.80–272.05 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 02 | 32 | 260.08 | ±6.8% | 242.43–277.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 09 | 37 | 255.18 | ±7.4% | 236.38–273.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 09 | 38 | 254.93 | ±7.5% | 235.88–273.98 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 09 | 39 | 260.08 | ±7.4% | 240.73–279.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 255.18 | ±8.2% | 234.35–276.00 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Aug 31 | ±0.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 260.08 → 259.77 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.