AMZN historial de movimiento esperado Amazon.com, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango81%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado81%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.0%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.0%
Error medio abs.2.4pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 262.72 | ±0.2% | 262.28–263.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 250.01 | ±1.6% | 245.95–254.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 253.66 | ±2.7% | 246.75–260.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 258.63 | ±2.9% | 251.15–266.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 262.42 | ±3.3% | 253.79–271.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 254.70 | ±3.5% | 245.78–263.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 259.83 | ±3.8% | 249.83–269.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 256.70 | ±4.0% | 246.43–266.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 251.66 | ±4.3% | 240.89–262.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 262.72 | ±2.0% | 257.38–268.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 250.01 | ±2.8% | 243.11–256.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 253.66 | ±3.3% | 245.17–262.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 258.63 | ±3.4% | 249.78–267.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 262.42 | ±3.8% | 252.49–272.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 254.70 | ±4.0% | 244.40–265.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 259.83 | ±4.2% | 248.98–270.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 256.70 | ±4.4% | 245.38–268.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 262.72 | ±2.9% | 255.14–270.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 250.01 | ±3.4% | 241.64–258.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 253.66 | ±4.0% | 243.63–263.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 258.63 | ±4.0% | 248.38–268.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 262.42 | ±4.3% | 251.12–273.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 254.70 | ±4.6% | 243.05–266.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 259.83 | ±4.8% | 247.38–272.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 256.70 | ±4.9% | 244.12–269.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 251.66 | ±5.0% | 239.04–264.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 250.94 | ±5.3% | 237.74–264.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 248.71 | ±5.6% | 234.78–262.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 255.43 | ±7.0% | 237.50–273.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 255.25 | ±7.0% | 237.32–273.18 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.1% | -0.0% | dentro | 250.01 → 250.00 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -1.4% | dentro | 253.66 → 250.00 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | -3.3% | fuera | 258.63 → 250.00 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | -4.7% | fuera | 262.42 → 250.00 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | -1.8% | dentro | 254.70 → 250.00 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | -3.8% | fuera | 259.83 → 250.00 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 256.70 → 250.00 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | -0.7% | dentro | 251.66 → 250.00 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | -0.4% | dentro | 250.94 → 250.00 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +0.5% | dentro | 248.71 → 250.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 255.43 → 250.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 255.25 → 250.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -3.4% | dentro | 258.79 → 250.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | -1.8% | dentro | 254.60 → 250.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -0.4% | dentro | 251.11 → 250.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 246.16 → 250.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +0.6% | dentro | 248.42 → 250.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -1.5% | dentro | 253.79 → 250.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.4% | -2.6% | dentro | 256.60 → 250.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -0.8% | dentro | 252.05 → 250.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.0% | -1.0% | dentro | 252.46 → 250.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -2.7% | dentro | 256.99 → 250.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -3.2% | dentro | 258.30 → 250.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -3.2% | dentro | 258.36 → 250.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -3.5% | dentro | 258.96 → 250.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -2.0% | dentro | 255.18 → 250.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -1.9% | dentro | 254.93 → 250.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -3.9% | dentro | 260.08 → 250.00 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 253.66 → 254.08 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.5% | -1.8% | fuera | 258.63 → 254.08 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.3% | -3.2% | fuera | 262.42 → 254.08 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | -0.2% | dentro | 254.70 → 254.08 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | -2.2% | dentro | 259.83 → 254.08 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.2% | -1.0% | dentro | 256.70 → 254.08 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 251.66 → 254.08 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.6% | +1.3% | dentro | 250.94 → 254.08 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.1% | +2.2% | dentro | 248.71 → 254.08 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.3% | -1.1% | dentro | 262.42 → 259.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 254.70 → 259.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 259.83 → 259.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.6% | +1.1% | dentro | 256.70 → 259.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.9% | +3.1% | fuera | 251.66 → 259.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.2% | +3.4% | fuera | 250.94 → 259.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.6% | +4.3% | fuera | 248.71 → 259.53 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 262.42 → 262.43 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | +3.0% | fuera | 254.70 → 262.43 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.0% | dentro | 259.83 → 262.43 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.2% | +2.2% | fuera | 256.70 → 262.43 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.3% | fuera | 251.66 → 262.43 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +4.6% | fuera | 250.94 → 262.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | +5.5% | fuera | 248.71 → 262.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +2.7% | dentro | 255.43 → 262.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +2.8% | dentro | 255.25 → 262.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +1.4% | dentro | 258.79 → 262.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +3.1% | dentro | 254.60 → 262.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +4.5% | dentro | 251.11 → 262.43 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +6.6% | fuera | 246.16 → 262.43 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +5.6% | dentro | 248.42 → 262.43 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.4% | dentro | 253.79 → 262.43 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +2.3% | dentro | 256.60 → 262.43 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.