AMGN 预期波动历史 Amgen Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内48%
|实际值| 低于预期值48%
平均预期波动幅度±4.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度5.4%
平均绝对误差2.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 432.49 | ±0.6% | 429.91–435.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 425.81 | ±2.1% | 416.73–434.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 412.84 | ±2.3% | 403.37–422.31 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 414.17 | ±3.1% | 401.35–427.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 407.44 | ±3.4% | 393.69–421.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 413.08 | ±3.1% | 400.31–425.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 402.60 | ±3.5% | 388.60–416.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 402.98 | ±3.6% | 388.33–417.63 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 402.56 | ±3.9% | 386.96–418.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 407.27 | ±4.2% | 390.27–424.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 409.75 | ±5.6% | 386.98–432.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 410.24 | ±5.6% | 387.46–433.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 393.16 | ±5.3% | 372.26–414.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 385.26 | ±5.7% | 363.33–407.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 377.70 | ±5.8% | 355.73–399.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 376.19 | ±6.2% | 352.69–399.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 379.48 | ±6.3% | 355.73–403.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 378.02 | ±6.3% | 354.12–401.92 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 378.90 | ±6.5% | 354.36–403.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 382.51 | ±6.7% | 357.01–408.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 390.67 | ±7.0% | 363.35–418.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 393.67 | ±7.5% | 364.10–423.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 415.00 | ±10.4% | 371.85–458.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 437.27 | ±8.7% | 399.25–475.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 443.37 | ±8.7% | 405.00–481.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 442.19 | ±9.1% | 401.89–482.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 436.69 | ±8.9% | 397.99–475.39 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 431.50 | ±9.5% | 390.68–472.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 432.49 | ±3.1% | 419.17–445.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 425.81 | ±3.7% | 410.11–441.51 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | 区间内 | 414.17 → 414.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +1.8% | 区间外 | 407.44 → 414.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +0.4% | 区间内 | 413.08 → 414.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 402.60 → 414.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.0% | 区间外 | 402.98 → 414.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.1% | 区间外 | 402.56 → 414.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 407.27 → 414.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 409.75 → 414.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 410.24 → 414.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 393.16 → 414.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.7% | 区间外 | 385.26 → 414.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +9.8% | 区间外 | 377.70 → 414.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 376.19 → 414.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 379.48 → 414.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +9.7% | 区间外 | 378.02 → 414.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 378.90 → 414.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +8.5% | 区间外 | 382.51 → 414.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.2% | 区间内 | 390.67 → 414.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +5.4% | 区间内 | 393.67 → 414.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 415.00 → 414.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.1% | 区间内 | 437.27 → 414.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.4% | 区间内 | 443.37 → 414.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -6.2% | 区间内 | 442.19 → 414.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.0% | 区间内 | 436.69 → 414.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 431.50 → 414.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 402.56 → 403.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -1.0% | 区间内 | 407.27 → 403.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 409.75 → 403.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -1.8% | 区间内 | 410.24 → 403.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 393.16 → 403.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +4.6% | 区间外 | 385.26 → 403.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +6.7% | 区间外 | 377.70 → 403.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.7% | +7.1% | 区间外 | 376.19 → 403.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.6% | +6.2% | 区间外 | 379.48 → 403.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.5% | +6.6% | 区间外 | 378.02 → 403.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.9% | +6.4% | 区间外 | 378.90 → 403.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | +5.4% | 区间外 | 382.51 → 403.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.5% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 390.67 → 403.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.9% | +2.4% | 区间内 | 393.67 → 403.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 415.00 → 403.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -7.8% | 区间外 | 437.27 → 403.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -9.1% | 区间外 | 443.37 → 403.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | -8.9% | 区间外 | 442.19 → 403.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.6% | -7.7% | 区间外 | 436.69 → 403.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | -6.6% | 区间内 | 431.50 → 403.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | +1.2% | 区间内 | 409.75 → 414.61 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.3% | +1.1% | 区间内 | 410.24 → 414.61 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.4% | +5.5% | 区间外 | 393.16 → 414.61 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±2.8% | +7.6% | 区间外 | 385.26 → 414.61 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.3% | +9.8% | 区间外 | 377.70 → 414.61 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.7% | +10.2% | 区间外 | 376.19 → 414.61 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +9.3% | 区间外 | 379.48 → 414.61 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.8% | +9.7% | 区间外 | 378.02 → 414.61 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±3.9% | +9.4% | 区间外 | 378.90 → 414.61 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.5% | +8.4% | 区间外 | 382.51 → 414.61 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | +6.1% | 区间外 | 390.67 → 414.61 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | +5.3% | 区间外 | 393.67 → 414.61 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 415.00 → 414.61 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.2% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 437.27 → 414.61 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.5% | -6.5% | 区间内 | 443.37 → 414.61 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.