AMGN historial de movimiento esperado Amgen Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango45%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado45%
Movimiento esperado promedio±4.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio5.8%
Error medio abs.3.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 425.40 | ±2.8% | 413.40–437.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 432.49 | ±3.1% | 419.17–445.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 425.81 | ±3.7% | 410.11–441.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 412.84 | ±3.7% | 397.69–427.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 414.17 | ±4.1% | 397.22–431.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 407.44 | ±4.5% | 388.96–425.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 413.08 | ±4.3% | 395.33–430.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 402.60 | ±4.5% | 384.50–420.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 402.98 | ±4.6% | 384.50–421.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 402.56 | ±4.9% | 382.74–422.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 407.27 | ±5.4% | 385.22–429.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 409.75 | ±6.2% | 384.43–435.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 410.24 | ±6.2% | 384.92–435.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 393.16 | ±6.3% | 368.46–417.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 385.26 | ±6.4% | 360.69–409.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 377.70 | ±6.6% | 352.60–402.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 376.19 | ±6.8% | 350.59–401.79 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 379.48 | ±7.0% | 352.88–406.08 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 378.02 | ±7.2% | 350.85–405.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 378.90 | ±7.2% | 351.70–406.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 382.51 | ±7.6% | 353.38–411.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 390.67 | ±7.9% | 359.85–421.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 393.67 | ±8.3% | 361.00–426.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 415.00 | ±10.9% | 369.92–460.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 437.27 | ±9.3% | 396.65–477.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 443.37 | ±9.5% | 401.27–485.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 425.40 | ±4.4% | 406.82–443.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 432.49 | ±4.5% | 412.92–452.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 425.81 | ±4.9% | 404.83–446.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 412.84 | ±4.9% | 392.46–433.21 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 432.49 → 432.49 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.1% | +1.6% | dentro | 425.81 → 432.49 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | +4.8% | fuera | 412.84 → 432.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +4.4% | fuera | 414.17 → 432.49 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +6.1% | fuera | 407.44 → 432.49 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +4.7% | fuera | 413.08 → 432.49 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.5% | +7.4% | fuera | 402.60 → 432.49 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.6% | +7.3% | fuera | 402.98 → 432.49 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +7.4% | fuera | 402.56 → 432.49 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +6.2% | fuera | 407.27 → 432.49 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +5.5% | dentro | 409.75 → 432.49 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +5.4% | dentro | 410.24 → 432.49 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +10.0% | fuera | 393.16 → 432.49 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +12.3% | fuera | 385.26 → 432.49 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +14.5% | fuera | 377.70 → 432.49 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +15.0% | fuera | 376.19 → 432.49 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +14.0% | fuera | 379.48 → 432.49 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.3% | +14.4% | fuera | 378.02 → 432.49 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +14.1% | fuera | 378.90 → 432.49 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +13.1% | fuera | 382.51 → 432.49 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +10.7% | fuera | 390.67 → 432.49 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +9.9% | fuera | 393.67 → 432.49 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | +4.2% | dentro | 415.00 → 432.49 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -1.1% | dentro | 437.27 → 432.49 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -2.5% | dentro | 443.37 → 432.49 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.1% | -2.2% | dentro | 442.19 → 432.49 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 436.69 → 432.49 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 431.50 → 432.49 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | +0.2% | dentro | 414.17 → 414.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +1.8% | fuera | 407.44 → 414.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.7% | +0.4% | dentro | 413.08 → 414.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.0% | fuera | 402.60 → 414.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +3.0% | fuera | 402.98 → 414.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +3.1% | fuera | 402.56 → 414.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +1.9% | dentro | 407.27 → 414.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +1.2% | dentro | 409.75 → 414.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +1.1% | dentro | 410.24 → 414.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +5.5% | fuera | 393.16 → 414.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +7.7% | fuera | 385.26 → 414.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.2% | +9.8% | fuera | 377.70 → 414.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +10.3% | fuera | 376.19 → 414.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +9.3% | fuera | 379.48 → 414.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | +9.7% | fuera | 378.02 → 414.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.5% | +9.5% | fuera | 378.90 → 414.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.0% | +8.5% | fuera | 382.51 → 414.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.2% | dentro | 390.67 → 414.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | +5.4% | dentro | 393.67 → 414.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | -0.0% | dentro | 415.00 → 414.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.1% | dentro | 437.27 → 414.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.1% | -6.4% | dentro | 443.37 → 414.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -6.2% | dentro | 442.19 → 414.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -5.0% | dentro | 436.69 → 414.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -3.9% | dentro | 431.50 → 414.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 402.56 → 403.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 407.27 → 403.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -1.6% | dentro | 409.75 → 403.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.6% | -1.8% | dentro | 410.24 → 403.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | +2.5% | dentro | 393.16 → 403.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.9% | +4.6% | fuera | 385.26 → 403.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.4% | +6.7% | fuera | 377.70 → 403.04 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.