AMD 预期波动历史 Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项200
收盘价处于区间内32%
|实际值| 低于预期值32%
平均预期波动幅度±6.8%
平均|实际|波动幅度12.6%
平均绝对误差8.0pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20 | Oct 21 | 1 | 544.55 | ±3.1% | 527.92–561.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 539.40 | ±3.6% | 519.90–558.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 530.31 | ±5.1% | 503.33–557.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 566.70 | ±6.0% | 532.98–600.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 608.77 | ±5.8% | 573.19–644.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 607.64 | ±6.0% | 571.41–643.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 619.75 | ±7.2% | 575.42–664.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 646.54 | ±7.3% | 599.64–693.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 651.51 | ±7.2% | 604.51–698.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 20 | Oct 23 | 3 | 544.55 | ±4.8% | 518.15–570.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 539.40 | ±5.1% | 511.77–567.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 530.31 | ±6.2% | 497.26–563.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 566.70 | ±7.1% | 526.55–606.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 608.77 | ±6.5% | 569.17–648.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 607.64 | ±6.7% | 566.94–648.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 619.75 | ±7.6% | 572.55–666.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 646.54 | ±7.8% | 596.12–696.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 651.51 | ±7.7% | 601.61–701.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 631.85 | ±8.0% | 581.08–682.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 632.88 | ±8.6% | 578.58–687.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 615.00 | ±9.4% | 557.15–672.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 623.50 | ±12.5% | 545.85–701.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 621.00 | ±12.4% | 544.17–697.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 615.11 | ±13.1% | 534.84–695.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 557.60 | ±12.7% | 486.75–628.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 546.26 | ±12.9% | 475.63–616.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 514.47 | ±13.0% | 447.42–581.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 503.63 | ±13.2% | 436.98–570.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 494.30 | ±13.2% | 429.10–559.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 514.84 | ±13.7% | 444.52–585.17 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±0.4% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 539.40 → 538.05 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±3.3% | +1.5% | 区间内 | 530.31 → 538.05 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±4.8% | -5.1% | 区间外 | 566.70 → 538.05 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±4.7% | -11.6% | 区间外 | 608.77 → 538.05 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±5.3% | -11.5% | 区间外 | 607.64 → 538.05 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±6.4% | -13.2% | 区间外 | 619.75 → 538.05 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±6.4% | -16.8% | 区间外 | 646.54 → 538.05 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±6.3% | -17.4% | 区间外 | 651.51 → 538.05 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 19 | ±6.6% | -14.8% | 区间外 | 631.85 → 538.05 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 530.31 → 528.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 566.70 → 528.75 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -13.1% | 区间外 | 608.77 → 528.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -13.0% | 区间外 | 607.64 → 528.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -14.7% | 区间外 | 619.75 → 528.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -18.2% | 区间外 | 646.54 → 528.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -18.8% | 区间外 | 651.51 → 528.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -16.3% | 区间外 | 631.85 → 528.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -16.5% | 区间外 | 632.88 → 528.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -14.0% | 区间外 | 615.00 → 528.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -15.2% | 区间外 | 623.50 → 528.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -14.9% | 区间外 | 621.00 → 528.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -14.0% | 区间外 | 615.11 → 528.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -5.2% | 区间内 | 557.60 → 528.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 546.26 → 528.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +2.8% | 区间内 | 514.47 → 528.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +5.0% | 区间内 | 503.63 → 528.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +7.0% | 区间内 | 494.30 → 528.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +2.7% | 区间内 | 514.84 → 528.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +4.8% | 区间内 | 504.31 → 528.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 521.54 → 528.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 506.45 → 528.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +11.0% | 区间内 | 476.24 → 528.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +10.7% | 区间内 | 477.56 → 528.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 455.50 → 528.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | +15.7% | 区间外 | 457.08 → 528.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 459.76 → 528.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +12.5% | 区间内 | 470.20 → 528.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.8% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 566.70 → 570.82 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | -6.2% | 区间外 | 608.77 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 607.64 → 570.82 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | -7.9% | 区间外 | 619.75 → 570.82 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.8% | -11.7% | 区间外 | 646.54 → 570.82 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.1% | -12.4% | 区间外 | 651.51 → 570.82 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.4% | -9.7% | 区间外 | 631.85 → 570.82 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.0% | -9.8% | 区间外 | 632.88 → 570.82 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.0% | -7.2% | 区间外 | 615.00 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | -2.2% | 区间外 | 607.64 → 594.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -4.1% | 区间外 | 619.75 → 594.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.7% | -8.1% | 区间外 | 646.54 → 594.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | -8.8% | 区间外 | 651.51 → 594.24 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.3% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 631.85 → 594.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.1% | -6.1% | 区间外 | 632.88 → 594.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.9% | -3.4% | 区间内 | 615.00 → 594.24 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 607.64 → 608.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -1.9% | 区间内 | 619.75 → 608.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -5.9% | 区间外 | 646.54 → 608.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -6.7% | 区间外 | 651.51 → 608.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -3.8% | 区间外 | 631.85 → 608.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 632.88 → 608.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.1% | 区间内 | 615.00 → 608.10 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.