AMD historial de movimiento esperado Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango34%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado34%
Movimiento esperado promedio±6.8%
Movimiento |real| promedio12.4%
Error medio abs.7.8pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 539.40 | ±0.4% | 537.10–541.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 530.31 | ±3.3% | 513.03–547.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 566.70 | ±4.8% | 539.62–593.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 608.77 | ±4.7% | 580.17–637.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 607.64 | ±5.3% | 575.41–639.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 619.75 | ±6.4% | 579.95–659.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 646.54 | ±6.4% | 605.37–687.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 651.51 | ±6.3% | 610.18–692.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 631.85 | ±6.6% | 590.02–673.67 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 539.40 | ±3.6% | 519.90–558.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 530.31 | ±5.1% | 503.33–557.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 566.70 | ±6.0% | 532.98–600.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 608.77 | ±5.8% | 573.19–644.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 607.64 | ±6.0% | 571.41–643.86 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 619.75 | ±7.2% | 575.42–664.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 646.54 | ±7.3% | 599.64–693.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 651.51 | ±7.2% | 604.51–698.51 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 539.40 | ±5.1% | 511.77–567.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 530.31 | ±6.2% | 497.26–563.36 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 566.70 | ±7.1% | 526.55–606.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 608.77 | ±6.5% | 569.17–648.37 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 607.64 | ±6.7% | 566.94–648.34 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 619.75 | ±7.6% | 572.55–666.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 646.54 | ±7.8% | 596.12–696.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 651.51 | ±7.7% | 601.61–701.41 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 631.85 | ±8.0% | 581.08–682.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 632.88 | ±8.6% | 578.58–687.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 615.00 | ±9.4% | 557.15–672.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 623.50 | ±12.5% | 545.85–701.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 621.00 | ±12.4% | 544.17–697.83 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.3% | -0.3% | dentro | 530.31 → 528.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | -6.7% | fuera | 566.70 → 528.75 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -13.1% | fuera | 608.77 → 528.75 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -13.0% | fuera | 607.64 → 528.75 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | -14.7% | fuera | 619.75 → 528.75 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | -18.2% | fuera | 646.54 → 528.75 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -18.8% | fuera | 651.51 → 528.75 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -16.3% | fuera | 631.85 → 528.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -16.5% | fuera | 632.88 → 528.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -14.0% | fuera | 615.00 → 528.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -15.2% | fuera | 623.50 → 528.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -14.9% | fuera | 621.00 → 528.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -14.0% | fuera | 615.11 → 528.75 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | -5.2% | dentro | 557.60 → 528.75 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -3.2% | dentro | 546.26 → 528.75 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | +2.8% | dentro | 514.47 → 528.75 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | +5.0% | dentro | 503.63 → 528.75 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.9% | +7.0% | dentro | 494.30 → 528.75 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +2.7% | dentro | 514.84 → 528.75 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +4.8% | dentro | 504.31 → 528.75 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | +1.4% | dentro | 521.54 → 528.75 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +4.4% | dentro | 506.45 → 528.75 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +11.0% | dentro | 476.24 → 528.75 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +10.7% | dentro | 477.56 → 528.75 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | +16.1% | fuera | 455.50 → 528.75 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | +15.7% | fuera | 457.08 → 528.75 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +15.0% | fuera | 459.76 → 528.75 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +12.5% | dentro | 470.20 → 528.75 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 566.70 → 570.82 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | -6.2% | fuera | 608.77 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -6.1% | fuera | 607.64 → 570.82 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | -7.9% | fuera | 619.75 → 570.82 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.8% | -11.7% | fuera | 646.54 → 570.82 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.1% | -12.4% | fuera | 651.51 → 570.82 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.4% | -9.7% | fuera | 631.85 → 570.82 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.0% | -9.8% | fuera | 632.88 → 570.82 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.0% | -7.2% | fuera | 615.00 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | -2.2% | fuera | 607.64 → 594.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -4.1% | fuera | 619.75 → 594.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.7% | -8.1% | fuera | 646.54 → 594.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | -8.8% | fuera | 651.51 → 594.24 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.3% | -6.0% | fuera | 631.85 → 594.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.1% | -6.1% | fuera | 632.88 → 594.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.9% | -3.4% | dentro | 615.00 → 594.24 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 607.64 → 608.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 619.75 → 608.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -5.9% | fuera | 646.54 → 608.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -6.7% | fuera | 651.51 → 608.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -3.8% | fuera | 631.85 → 608.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.9% | dentro | 632.88 → 608.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 615.00 → 608.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 623.50 → 608.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 621.00 → 608.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -1.1% | dentro | 615.11 → 608.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +9.1% | dentro | 557.60 → 608.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +11.3% | fuera | 546.26 → 608.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +18.2% | fuera | 514.47 → 608.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +20.7% | fuera | 503.63 → 608.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +23.0% | fuera | 494.30 → 608.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +18.1% | fuera | 514.84 → 608.10 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.