AMD histórico de movimento esperado Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas192
Fechar dentro do intervalo32%
|Real| abaixo do esperado32%
Movimento esperado médio±6.0%
Movimento |real| médio12.0%
Erro médio absoluto7.6pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 530.31 | ±0.3% | 528.65–531.96 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 566.70 | ±4.0% | 543.98–589.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 608.77 | ±4.1% | 584.09–633.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 607.64 | ±4.6% | 579.56–635.71 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 619.75 | ±5.6% | 584.90–654.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 646.54 | ±5.8% | 608.94–684.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 651.51 | ±5.9% | 612.76–690.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 631.85 | ±6.1% | 593.38–670.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 632.88 | ±6.9% | 589.48–676.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 615.00 | ±7.7% | 567.77–662.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 623.50 | ±10.8% | 556.45–690.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 621.00 | ±10.8% | 553.95–688.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 615.11 | ±11.6% | 543.88–686.34 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 557.60 | ±11.2% | 495.30–619.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 546.26 | ±11.6% | 482.96–609.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 514.47 | ±11.6% | 454.60–574.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 503.63 | ±11.7% | 444.53–562.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 494.30 | ±11.9% | 435.57–553.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 514.84 | ±12.1% | 452.39–577.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 504.31 | ±12.6% | 440.56–568.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 521.54 | ±12.9% | 454.06–589.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 506.45 | ±13.6% | 437.32–575.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 476.24 | ±13.4% | 412.41–540.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 477.56 | ±13.4% | 413.74–541.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 455.50 | ±13.0% | 396.27–514.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 457.08 | ±13.3% | 396.43–517.73 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 459.76 | ±13.4% | 398.19–521.34 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 470.20 | ±13.7% | 405.65–534.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 530.31 | ±3.3% | 513.03–547.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 566.70 | ±4.8% | 539.62–593.77 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.8% | +0.7% | dentro | 566.70 → 570.82 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | -6.2% | fora | 608.77 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.7% | -6.1% | fora | 607.64 → 570.82 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.7% | -7.9% | fora | 619.75 → 570.82 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±4.8% | -11.7% | fora | 646.54 → 570.82 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.1% | -12.4% | fora | 651.51 → 570.82 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±5.4% | -9.7% | fora | 631.85 → 570.82 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±6.0% | -9.8% | fora | 632.88 → 570.82 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±7.0% | -7.2% | fora | 615.00 → 570.82 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | -2.2% | fora | 607.64 → 594.24 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.3% | -4.1% | fora | 619.75 → 594.24 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.7% | -8.1% | fora | 646.54 → 594.24 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.0% | -8.8% | fora | 651.51 → 594.24 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±4.3% | -6.0% | fora | 631.85 → 594.24 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.1% | -6.1% | fora | 632.88 → 594.24 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±5.9% | -3.4% | dentro | 615.00 → 594.24 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | +0.1% | dentro | 607.64 → 608.10 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -1.9% | dentro | 619.75 → 608.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -5.9% | fora | 646.54 → 608.10 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.5% | -6.7% | fora | 651.51 → 608.10 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.7% | -3.8% | fora | 631.85 → 608.10 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -3.9% | dentro | 632.88 → 608.10 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.6% | -1.1% | dentro | 615.00 → 608.10 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -2.5% | dentro | 623.50 → 608.10 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -2.1% | dentro | 621.00 → 608.10 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -1.1% | dentro | 615.11 → 608.10 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +9.1% | dentro | 557.60 → 608.10 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | +11.3% | fora | 546.26 → 608.10 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +18.2% | fora | 514.47 → 608.10 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +20.7% | fora | 503.63 → 608.10 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.7% | +23.0% | fora | 494.30 → 608.10 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +18.1% | fora | 514.84 → 608.10 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | +20.6% | fora | 504.31 → 608.10 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | +16.6% | fora | 521.54 → 608.10 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +20.1% | fora | 506.45 → 608.10 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +27.7% | fora | 476.24 → 608.10 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +27.3% | fora | 477.56 → 608.10 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +33.5% | fora | 455.50 → 608.10 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +33.0% | fora | 457.08 → 608.10 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | +32.3% | fora | 459.76 → 608.10 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +29.3% | fora | 470.20 → 608.10 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 646.54 → 645.86 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.0% | -0.9% | dentro | 651.51 → 645.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.6% | +2.2% | dentro | 631.85 → 645.86 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.6% | +2.1% | dentro | 632.88 → 645.86 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±4.7% | +5.0% | fora | 615.00 → 645.86 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 631.85 → 631.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±2.0% | -0.2% | dentro | 632.88 → 631.75 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.3% | +2.7% | dentro | 615.00 → 631.75 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±7.7% | +1.3% | dentro | 623.50 → 631.75 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±7.7% | +1.7% | dentro | 621.00 → 631.75 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±8.5% | +2.7% | dentro | 615.11 → 631.75 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | +0.2% | dentro | 632.88 → 633.91 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.2% | +3.1% | fora | 615.00 → 633.91 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +1.7% | dentro | 623.50 → 633.91 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 621.00 → 633.91 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.9% | +3.1% | dentro | 615.11 → 633.91 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +13.7% | fora | 557.60 → 633.91 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | +16.0% | fora | 546.26 → 633.91 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +23.2% | fora | 514.47 → 633.91 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.