AMAT 预期波动历史 Applied Materials, Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项93
收盘价处于区间内54%
|实际值| 低于预期值54%
平均预期波动幅度±7.3%
平均|实际|波动幅度9.3%
平均绝对误差4.8pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 410.50 | ±0.5% | 408.31–412.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 445.60 | ±4.5% | 425.57–465.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 464.70 | ±5.4% | 439.60–489.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 507.77 | ±6.7% | 473.94–541.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 508.75 | ±7.2% | 471.95–545.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 520.45 | ±6.8% | 484.85–556.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 530.50 | ±6.8% | 494.27–566.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 542.90 | ±7.4% | 502.93–582.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 539.27 | ±7.9% | 496.42–582.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 528.17 | ±8.9% | 481.14–575.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 472.97 | ±11.2% | 420.05–525.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 472.66 | ±11.2% | 419.73–525.58 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 464.34 | ±11.3% | 411.67–517.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 443.00 | ±11.0% | 394.12–491.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 417.62 | ±11.0% | 371.50–463.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 416.50 | ±11.6% | 368.25–464.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 421.60 | ±11.6% | 372.57–470.62 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 426.30 | ±12.5% | 373.18–479.43 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 456.27 | ±12.7% | 398.30–514.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 455.64 | ±13.2% | 395.71–515.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 468.80 | ±13.6% | 405.18–532.42 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 473.30 | ±14.5% | 404.57–542.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 454.94 | ±14.4% | 389.49–520.39 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 454.50 | ±14.4% | 389.05–519.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 435.28 | ±13.5% | 376.43–494.13 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 437.61 | ±13.9% | 376.99–498.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 443.05 | ±14.0% | 380.95–505.15 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 458.00 | ±14.3% | 392.43–523.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 410.50 | ±6.2% | 384.85–436.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 445.60 | ±7.2% | 413.68–477.52 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | 区间内 | 507.77 → 507.03 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -0.3% | 区间内 | 508.75 → 507.03 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -2.6% | 区间内 | 520.45 → 507.03 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | -4.4% | 区间外 | 530.50 → 507.03 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -6.6% | 区间外 | 542.90 → 507.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 539.27 → 507.03 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | -4.0% | 区间内 | 528.17 → 507.03 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | +7.2% | 区间内 | 472.97 → 507.03 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +7.3% | 区间内 | 472.66 → 507.03 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +9.2% | 区间外 | 464.34 → 507.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +14.5% | 区间外 | 443.00 → 507.03 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.3% | +21.4% | 区间外 | 417.62 → 507.03 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.8% | +21.7% | 区间外 | 416.50 → 507.03 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | +20.3% | 区间外 | 421.60 → 507.03 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.5% | +18.9% | 区间外 | 426.30 → 507.03 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +11.1% | 区间外 | 456.27 → 507.03 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +11.3% | 区间内 | 455.64 → 507.03 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | +8.2% | 区间内 | 468.80 → 507.03 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +7.1% | 区间内 | 473.30 → 507.03 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +11.4% | 区间内 | 454.94 → 507.03 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +11.6% | 区间内 | 454.50 → 507.03 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | +16.5% | 区间外 | 435.28 → 507.03 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +15.9% | 区间外 | 437.61 → 507.03 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | +14.4% | 区间外 | 443.05 → 507.03 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +10.7% | 区间内 | 458.00 → 507.03 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 539.27 → 540.04 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.5% | +2.2% | 区间内 | 528.17 → 540.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +14.2% | 区间外 | 472.97 → 540.04 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | +14.3% | 区间外 | 472.66 → 540.04 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | +16.3% | 区间外 | 464.34 → 540.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | +21.9% | 区间外 | 443.00 → 540.04 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.7% | +29.3% | 区间外 | 417.62 → 540.04 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +29.7% | 区间外 | 416.50 → 540.04 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | +28.1% | 区间外 | 421.60 → 540.04 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.1% | +26.7% | 区间外 | 426.30 → 540.04 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.4% | +18.4% | 区间外 | 456.27 → 540.04 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.0% | +18.5% | 区间外 | 455.64 → 540.04 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | +15.2% | 区间外 | 468.80 → 540.04 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | +14.1% | 区间外 | 473.30 → 540.04 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | +18.7% | 区间外 | 454.94 → 540.04 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | +18.8% | 区间外 | 454.50 → 540.04 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | +24.1% | 区间外 | 435.28 → 540.04 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | +23.4% | 区间外 | 437.61 → 540.04 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.1% | +21.9% | 区间外 | 443.05 → 540.04 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | +17.9% | 区间外 | 458.00 → 540.04 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 472.97 → 485.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 472.66 → 485.00 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.6% | +4.4% | 区间内 | 464.34 → 485.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.9% | +9.5% | 区间外 | 443.00 → 485.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.5% | +16.1% | 区间外 | 417.62 → 485.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.1% | +16.4% | 区间外 | 416.50 → 485.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | +15.0% | 区间外 | 421.60 → 485.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.3% | +13.8% | 区间外 | 426.30 → 485.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | +6.3% | 区间内 | 456.27 → 485.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.2% | +6.4% | 区间内 | 455.64 → 485.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.4% | +3.5% | 区间内 | 468.80 → 485.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.5% | +2.5% | 区间内 | 473.30 → 485.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.3% | +6.6% | 区间内 | 454.94 → 485.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.3% | +6.7% | 区间内 | 454.50 → 485.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | +11.4% | 区间外 | 435.28 → 485.00 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.