ALL 预期波动历史 The Allstate Corporation
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项43
收盘价处于区间内63%
|实际值| 低于预期值63%
平均预期波动幅度±4.5%
平均|实际|波动幅度4.5%
平均绝对误差2.7pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 247.00 | ±7.1% | 229.35–264.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 247.63 | ±7.3% | 229.43–265.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 236.17 | ±7.6% | 218.22–254.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 236.40 | ±7.8% | 217.85–254.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 229.43 | ±7.8% | 211.48–247.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 230.63 | ±7.7% | 212.98–248.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 223.95 | ±8.2% | 205.60–242.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 224.27 | ±8.2% | 205.77–242.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 224.71 | ±8.6% | 205.41–244.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 223.74 | ±8.8% | 203.99–243.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 224.41 | ±8.5% | 205.31–243.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 229.50 | ±9.0% | 208.80–250.20 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 228.81 | ±9.2% | 207.86–249.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 242.86 | ±8.7% | 221.66–264.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 249.16 | ±8.6% | 227.66–270.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 247.00 | ±8.9% | 225.00–269.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Dec 18 | 63 | 247.63 | ±9.1% | 225.08–270.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Dec 18 | 65 | 236.17 | ±9.1% | 214.62–257.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Dec 18 | 66 | 236.40 | ±9.8% | 213.20–259.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Dec 18 | 70 | 229.43 | ±9.5% | 207.63–251.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Dec 18 | 71 | 230.63 | ±9.8% | 207.93–253.33 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Dec 18 | 72 | 223.95 | ±9.6% | 202.45–245.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Dec 18 | 73 | 224.27 | ±9.9% | 202.12–246.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Dec 18 | 74 | 224.71 | ±10.2% | 201.76–247.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Dec 18 | 77 | 223.74 | ±10.3% | 200.79–246.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Dec 18 | 78 | 224.41 | ±10.1% | 201.81–247.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Dec 18 | 86 | 229.50 | ±10.8% | 204.70–254.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Dec 18 | 87 | 228.81 | ±10.7% | 204.26–253.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Dec 18 | 88 | 242.86 | ±10.3% | 217.96–267.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Dec 18 | 91 | 249.16 | ±10.5% | 223.01–275.31 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.0% | +0.1% | 区间内 | 247.63 → 247.88 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.4% | +5.0% | 区间外 | 236.17 → 247.88 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +4.9% | 区间外 | 236.40 → 247.88 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.6% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 229.43 → 247.88 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +7.5% | 区间外 | 230.63 → 247.88 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +10.7% | 区间外 | 223.95 → 247.88 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 224.27 → 247.88 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +10.3% | 区间外 | 224.71 → 247.88 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.4% | +10.8% | 区间外 | 223.74 → 247.88 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +10.5% | 区间外 | 224.41 → 247.88 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +8.0% | 区间外 | 229.50 → 247.88 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +8.3% | 区间外 | 228.81 → 247.88 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 242.86 → 247.88 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 249.16 → 247.88 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 254.85 → 247.88 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 256.13 → 247.88 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.1% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 258.48 → 247.88 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 256.12 → 247.88 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 251.79 → 247.88 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -2.2% | 区间内 | 253.58 → 247.88 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -2.4% | 区间内 | 254.07 → 247.88 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -3.7% | 区间内 | 257.45 → 247.88 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 263.11 → 247.88 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | -5.8% | 区间内 | 263.11 → 247.88 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.8% | -6.7% | 区间内 | 265.69 → 247.88 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 257.87 → 247.88 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 257.78 → 247.88 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 260.00 → 247.88 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±0.8% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 249.16 → 249.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 254.85 → 249.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.3% | -2.5% | 区间外 | 256.13 → 249.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | -3.3% | 区间外 | 258.48 → 249.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -2.5% | 区间内 | 256.12 → 249.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.8% | 区间内 | 251.79 → 249.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.5% | -1.5% | 区间内 | 253.58 → 249.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 254.07 → 249.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -3.0% | 区间内 | 257.45 → 249.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 263.11 → 249.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | 区间外 | 263.11 → 249.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | -6.0% | 区间外 | 265.69 → 249.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 257.87 → 249.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -3.1% | 区间内 | 257.78 → 249.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -3.9% | 区间内 | 260.00 → 249.83 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.