ALL riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan The Allstate Corporation
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan15
Tutup dalam rentang67%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi67%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±3.3%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|2.9%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut1.1pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 247.63 | ±1.0% | 245.13–250.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 236.17 | ±2.4% | 230.57–241.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 236.40 | ±2.6% | 230.28–242.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 229.43 | ±2.6% | 223.38–235.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 230.63 | ±3.2% | 223.25–238.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 223.95 | ±3.4% | 216.32–231.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 224.27 | ±3.7% | 215.90–232.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 224.71 | ±4.0% | 215.63–233.78 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 223.74 | ±4.4% | 213.84–233.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 224.41 | ±4.5% | 214.41–234.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 229.50 | ±5.4% | 217.05–241.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 228.81 | ±5.5% | 216.21–241.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 242.86 | ±5.3% | 230.01–255.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 249.16 | ±5.2% | 236.21–262.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 254.85 | ±5.7% | 240.45–269.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 256.13 | ±5.7% | 241.44–270.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 258.48 | ±6.1% | 242.73–274.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 256.12 | ±6.0% | 240.72–271.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 251.79 | ±7.1% | 233.84–269.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 253.58 | ±6.5% | 237.18–269.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 254.07 | ±6.5% | 237.62–270.52 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 257.45 | ±6.5% | 240.66–274.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 263.11 | ±6.6% | 245.81–280.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 263.11 | ±6.6% | 245.81–280.41 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 265.69 | ±6.8% | 247.64–283.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 257.87 | ±7.0% | 239.72–276.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 257.78 | ±7.1% | 239.58–275.98 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 260.00 | ±7.0% | 241.70–278.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 247.63 | ±7.3% | 229.43–265.83 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 236.17 | ±7.6% | 218.22–254.12 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±0.8% | +0.3% | di dalam | 249.16 → 249.83 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -2.0% | di dalam | 254.85 → 249.83 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.3% | -2.5% | di luar | 256.13 → 249.83 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.4% | -3.3% | di luar | 258.48 → 249.83 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -2.5% | di dalam | 256.12 → 249.83 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.2% | -0.8% | di dalam | 251.79 → 249.83 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.5% | -1.5% | di dalam | 253.58 → 249.83 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.3% | -1.7% | di dalam | 254.07 → 249.83 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.6% | -3.0% | di dalam | 257.45 → 249.83 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | di luar | 263.11 → 249.83 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.0% | -5.0% | di luar | 263.11 → 249.83 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.1% | -6.0% | di luar | 265.69 → 249.83 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.2% | -3.1% | di dalam | 257.87 → 249.83 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.3% | -3.1% | di dalam | 257.78 → 249.83 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±4.5% | -3.9% | di dalam | 260.00 → 249.83 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.