ALB historial de movimiento esperado Albemarle Corporation
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango26%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado26%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio12.4%
Error medio abs.5.3pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 94.85 | ±4.5% | 90.54–99.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 95.48 | ±5.2% | 90.54–100.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 97.97 | ±8.3% | 89.81–106.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 97.65 | ±6.9% | 90.91–104.39 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 102.00 | ±7.3% | 94.53–109.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 101.39 | ±8.0% | 93.29–109.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 102.75 | ±7.8% | 94.78–110.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 106.51 | ±8.6% | 97.36–115.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 104.37 | ±9.1% | 94.89–113.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 104.42 | ±9.6% | 94.42–114.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 104.62 | ±9.9% | 94.25–115.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 117.33 | ±11.3% | 104.06–130.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 113.37 | ±11.4% | 100.50–126.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 112.83 | ±11.7% | 99.66–126.01 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 111.06 | ±11.6% | 98.16–123.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 114.07 | ±12.5% | 99.84–128.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 114.50 | ±12.8% | 99.83–129.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 113.98 | ±12.7% | 99.48–128.48 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 114.51 | ±13.8% | 98.66–130.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 118.08 | ±14.1% | 101.45–134.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 125.64 | ±14.3% | 107.64–143.64 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 126.73 | ±14.2% | 108.75–144.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 125.68 | ±14.1% | 107.91–143.46 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 127.25 | ±13.9% | 109.50–145.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 129.76 | ±14.3% | 111.26–148.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 94.85 | ±7.4% | 87.80–101.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 95.48 | ±7.9% | 87.98–102.98 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 97.97 | ±9.7% | 88.44–107.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 97.65 | ±8.3% | 89.50–105.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 30 | 21 | 102.00 | ±9.4% | 92.45–111.55 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.8% | +0.0% | dentro | 95.48 → 95.48 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | -2.5% | dentro | 97.97 → 95.48 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -2.2% | dentro | 97.65 → 95.48 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | -6.4% | fuera | 102.00 → 95.48 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -5.8% | dentro | 101.39 → 95.48 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | -7.1% | fuera | 102.75 → 95.48 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | -10.4% | fuera | 106.51 → 95.48 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | -8.5% | fuera | 104.37 → 95.48 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.6% | -8.6% | fuera | 104.42 → 95.48 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -8.7% | fuera | 104.62 → 95.48 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -18.6% | fuera | 117.33 → 95.48 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.8% | -15.8% | fuera | 113.37 → 95.48 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -15.4% | fuera | 112.83 → 95.48 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.5% | -14.0% | fuera | 111.06 → 95.48 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -16.3% | fuera | 114.07 → 95.48 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.6% | -16.6% | fuera | 114.50 → 95.48 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.4% | -16.2% | fuera | 113.98 → 95.48 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.7% | -16.6% | fuera | 114.51 → 95.48 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -19.1% | fuera | 118.08 → 95.48 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.9% | -24.0% | fuera | 125.64 → 95.48 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.7% | -24.7% | fuera | 126.73 → 95.48 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -24.0% | fuera | 125.68 → 95.48 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -25.0% | fuera | 127.25 → 95.48 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -26.4% | fuera | 129.76 → 95.48 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -30.4% | fuera | 137.25 → 95.48 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -30.3% | fuera | 136.96 → 95.48 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -30.3% | fuera | 136.99 → 95.48 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -29.3% | fuera | 135.10 → 95.48 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.3% | -0.7% | dentro | 102.00 → 101.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | -0.1% | dentro | 101.39 → 101.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | -1.4% | dentro | 102.75 → 101.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | -4.9% | fuera | 106.51 → 101.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.0% | -3.0% | dentro | 104.37 → 101.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -3.0% | dentro | 104.42 → 101.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -3.2% | dentro | 104.62 → 101.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.2% | -13.7% | fuera | 117.33 → 101.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -10.7% | fuera | 113.37 → 101.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -10.2% | fuera | 112.83 → 101.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | -8.8% | dentro | 111.06 → 101.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.5% | -11.2% | fuera | 114.07 → 101.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.1% | -11.6% | fuera | 114.50 → 101.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.0% | -11.2% | fuera | 113.98 → 101.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | -11.6% | fuera | 114.51 → 101.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.6% | -14.2% | fuera | 118.08 → 101.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -19.4% | fuera | 125.64 → 101.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.5% | -20.1% | fuera | 126.73 → 101.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -19.4% | fuera | 125.68 → 101.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.7% | -20.4% | fuera | 127.25 → 101.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -22.0% | fuera | 129.76 → 101.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | -26.2% | fuera | 137.25 → 101.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -26.1% | fuera | 136.96 → 101.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.2% | -26.1% | fuera | 136.99 → 101.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.3% | -25.0% | fuera | 135.10 → 101.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.7% | +0.2% | dentro | 104.42 → 104.59 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±2.7% | -0.0% | dentro | 104.62 → 104.59 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -10.9% | fuera | 117.33 → 104.59 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.8% | -7.7% | fuera | 113.37 → 104.59 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.0% | -7.3% | fuera | 112.83 → 104.59 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.2% | -5.8% | dentro | 111.06 → 104.59 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | -8.3% | fuera | 114.07 → 104.59 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.