AI histórico de movimento esperado C3.ai, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo96%
|Real| abaixo do esperado96%
Movimento esperado médio±10.4%
Movimento |real| médio3.7%
Erro médio absoluto6.9pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 11.30 | ±5.2% | 10.71–11.89 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 12.19 | ±5.7% | 11.48–12.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 11.56 | ±7.1% | 10.74–12.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 11.98 | ±7.1% | 11.13–12.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 11.55 | ±7.6% | 10.68–12.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 11.05 | ±8.6% | 10.10–12.01 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 11.24 | ±8.9% | 10.23–12.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 11.33 | ±9.5% | 10.26–12.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 11.20 | ±9.2% | 10.17–12.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 11.10 | ±10.8% | 9.89–12.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 11.05 | ±10.2% | 9.93–12.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 10.86 | ±13.9% | 9.35–12.37 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 10.88 | ±14.0% | 9.35–12.40 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 10.81 | ±13.6% | 9.35–12.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 10.78 | ±14.6% | 9.21–12.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 10.78 | ±14.0% | 9.28–12.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 10.56 | ±14.3% | 9.05–12.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 10.78 | ±14.7% | 9.20–12.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 11.17 | ±15.1% | 9.48–12.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 10.53 | ±15.6% | 8.88–12.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 10.49 | ±16.0% | 8.81–12.17 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 10.35 | ±16.4% | 8.65–12.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 10.51 | ±16.0% | 8.82–12.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 10.47 | ±17.0% | 8.69–12.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 10.68 | ±18.1% | 8.74–12.61 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 10.87 | ±22.2% | 8.46–13.29 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 11.30 | ±8.0% | 10.39–12.21 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 12.19 | ±10.6% | 10.89–13.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 11.56 | ±9.7% | 10.44–12.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 11.98 | ±9.3% | 10.87–13.10 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.3% | -7.1% | fora | 12.19 → 11.32 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 11.56 → 11.32 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -5.5% | fora | 11.98 → 11.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | -2.0% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.32 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +2.4% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.32 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 11.24 → 11.32 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 11.33 → 11.32 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 11.20 → 11.32 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | +2.0% | dentro | 11.10 → 11.32 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.2% | +2.4% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.32 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.2% | +4.2% | dentro | 10.86 → 11.32 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.1% | +4.1% | dentro | 10.88 → 11.32 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +4.7% | dentro | 10.81 → 11.32 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +5.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.32 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | +5.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.32 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | +7.2% | dentro | 10.56 → 11.32 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | +5.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.32 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | +1.3% | dentro | 11.17 → 11.32 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | +7.6% | dentro | 10.53 → 11.32 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.6% | +7.9% | dentro | 10.49 → 11.32 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.7% | +9.4% | dentro | 10.35 → 11.32 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±15.7% | +7.7% | dentro | 10.51 → 11.32 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.3% | +8.1% | dentro | 10.47 → 11.32 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±16.0% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.68 → 11.32 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±17.8% | +4.1% | dentro | 10.87 → 11.32 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.6% | +5.7% | dentro | 10.71 → 11.32 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±20.4% | +9.6% | dentro | 10.33 → 11.32 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±21.4% | +4.3% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.32 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.3% | fora | 11.05 → 11.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.6% | dentro | 11.24 → 11.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 11.33 → 11.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +2.9% | dentro | 11.20 → 11.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.9% | dentro | 11.10 → 11.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.3% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 10.86 → 11.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.88 → 11.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 10.81 → 11.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +9.2% | dentro | 10.56 → 11.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 11.17 → 11.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +9.5% | dentro | 10.53 → 11.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +9.9% | dentro | 10.49 → 11.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +11.4% | dentro | 10.35 → 11.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +9.7% | dentro | 10.51 → 11.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +10.1% | dentro | 10.47 → 11.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | +8.0% | dentro | 10.68 → 11.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.87 → 11.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.4% | +7.7% | dentro | 10.71 → 11.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | +11.6% | dentro | 10.33 → 11.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | +6.3% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 11.10 → 11.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 10.86 → 11.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 10.88 → 11.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +1.8% | dentro | 10.81 → 11.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +2.1% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.01 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.