AI historial de movimiento esperado C3.ai, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas93
Cierre dentro del rango97%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado97%
Movimiento esperado promedio±9.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.3%
Error medio abs.6.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 12.19 | ±2.3% | 11.90–12.47 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 11.56 | ±4.1% | 11.09–12.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 11.98 | ±4.6% | 11.43–12.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 11.55 | ±5.4% | 10.94–12.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 11.05 | ±6.2% | 10.37–11.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 11.24 | ±7.2% | 10.43–12.05 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 11.33 | ±7.3% | 10.51–12.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 11.20 | ±7.0% | 10.42–11.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 11.10 | ±8.7% | 10.13–12.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 11.05 | ±9.2% | 10.03–12.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 10.86 | ±12.2% | 9.54–12.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 10.88 | ±12.1% | 9.56–12.19 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 10.81 | ±12.4% | 9.47–12.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 10.78 | ±13.7% | 9.30–12.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 10.78 | ±14.1% | 9.27–12.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 10.56 | ±13.4% | 9.14–11.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 10.78 | ±14.5% | 9.21–12.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 11.17 | ±16.3% | 9.35–12.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 10.53 | ±14.5% | 9.00–12.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 10.49 | ±14.6% | 8.96–12.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 10.35 | ±14.7% | 8.83–11.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 10.51 | ±15.7% | 8.86–12.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 10.47 | ±16.3% | 8.76–12.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 10.68 | ±16.0% | 8.97–12.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 10.87 | ±17.8% | 8.93–12.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 10.71 | ±20.6% | 8.51–12.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 10.33 | ±20.4% | 8.22–12.44 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 10.85 | ±21.4% | 8.53–13.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 12.19 | ±5.7% | 11.48–12.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 11.56 | ±7.1% | 10.74–12.38 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.9% | -0.2% | dentro | 11.55 → 11.53 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +4.3% | fuera | 11.05 → 11.53 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +2.6% | dentro | 11.24 → 11.53 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | +1.8% | dentro | 11.33 → 11.53 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +2.9% | dentro | 11.20 → 11.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +3.9% | dentro | 11.10 → 11.53 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | +4.3% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.53 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +6.2% | dentro | 10.86 → 11.53 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.88 → 11.53 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.8% | +6.6% | dentro | 10.81 → 11.53 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | +9.2% | dentro | 10.56 → 11.53 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +7.0% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.53 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +3.2% | dentro | 11.17 → 11.53 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.7% | +9.5% | dentro | 10.53 → 11.53 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +9.9% | dentro | 10.49 → 11.53 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.5% | +11.4% | dentro | 10.35 → 11.53 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | +9.7% | dentro | 10.51 → 11.53 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.3% | +10.1% | dentro | 10.47 → 11.53 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±14.6% | +8.0% | dentro | 10.68 → 11.53 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±15.2% | +6.0% | dentro | 10.87 → 11.53 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±19.4% | +7.7% | dentro | 10.71 → 11.53 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | +11.6% | dentro | 10.33 → 11.53 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±20.0% | +6.3% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.53 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 11.10 → 11.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.7% | -0.4% | dentro | 11.05 → 11.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 10.86 → 11.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 10.88 → 11.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.2% | +1.8% | dentro | 10.81 → 11.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.2% | +2.1% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.6% | +2.1% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.8% | +4.3% | dentro | 10.56 → 11.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | +2.1% | dentro | 10.78 → 11.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -1.4% | dentro | 11.17 → 11.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | +4.6% | dentro | 10.53 → 11.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.3% | +5.0% | dentro | 10.49 → 11.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.2% | +6.4% | dentro | 10.35 → 11.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.1% | +4.8% | dentro | 10.51 → 11.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.8% | +5.2% | dentro | 10.47 → 11.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | +3.1% | dentro | 10.68 → 11.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±13.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 10.87 → 11.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.2% | +2.8% | dentro | 10.71 → 11.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.5% | +6.6% | dentro | 10.33 → 11.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±18.5% | +1.5% | dentro | 10.85 → 11.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.7% | -1.9% | dentro | 10.86 → 10.65 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -2.1% | dentro | 10.88 → 10.65 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 10.81 → 10.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.6% | -1.2% | dentro | 10.78 → 10.65 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.9% | -1.2% | dentro | 10.78 → 10.65 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.6% | +0.9% | dentro | 10.56 → 10.65 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.5% | -1.2% | dentro | 10.78 → 10.65 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.0% | -4.7% | dentro | 11.17 → 10.65 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.7% | +1.2% | dentro | 10.53 → 10.65 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.2% | +1.5% | dentro | 10.49 → 10.65 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.7% | +2.9% | dentro | 10.35 → 10.65 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.8% | +1.4% | dentro | 10.51 → 10.65 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±10.5% | +1.7% | dentro | 10.47 → 10.65 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 10.68 → 10.65 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±11.9% | -2.0% | dentro | 10.87 → 10.65 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.