AFRM historial de movimiento esperado Affirm Holdings, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango82%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado82%
Movimiento esperado promedio±8.3%
Movimiento |real| promedio4.4%
Error medio abs.5.2pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 72.91 | ±5.3% | 69.06–76.76 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 74.01 | ±6.8% | 69.00–79.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 70.49 | ±7.4% | 65.30–75.69 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 77.70 | ±6.8% | 72.42–82.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 80.70 | ±7.7% | 74.50–86.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 77.10 | ±8.6% | 70.50–83.70 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 75.20 | ±8.0% | 69.17–81.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 75.04 | ±9.0% | 68.28–81.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 74.70 | ±9.4% | 67.67–81.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 71.00 | ±10.0% | 63.88–78.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 70.48 | ±10.7% | 62.91–78.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 71.61 | ±12.4% | 62.71–80.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 71.47 | ±12.6% | 62.45–80.50 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 70.91 | ±11.9% | 62.46–79.36 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 71.00 | ±12.6% | 62.05–79.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 70.82 | ±13.3% | 61.37–80.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 72.24 | ±13.7% | 62.37–82.11 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 72.12 | ±13.8% | 62.15–82.09 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 73.26 | ±13.0% | 63.71–82.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 71.19 | ±13.3% | 61.70–80.69 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 67.55 | ±14.2% | 57.95–77.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 68.31 | ±14.3% | 58.56–78.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 72.08 | ±14.8% | 61.41–82.75 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 72.26 | ±15.3% | 61.21–83.31 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 72.46 | ±14.4% | 62.03–82.89 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 74.23 | ±15.6% | 62.66–85.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 72.91 | ±8.4% | 66.77–79.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 74.01 | ±10.2% | 66.48–81.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 70.49 | ±10.5% | 63.12–77.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 77.70 | ±9.0% | 70.74–84.66 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | +0.0% | dentro | 74.01 → 74.01 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +5.0% | fuera | 70.49 → 74.01 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | -4.7% | fuera | 77.70 → 74.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | -8.3% | fuera | 80.70 → 74.01 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 77.10 → 74.01 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | -1.6% | dentro | 75.20 → 74.01 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -1.4% | dentro | 75.04 → 74.01 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | -0.9% | dentro | 74.70 → 74.01 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | +4.2% | dentro | 71.00 → 74.01 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | +5.0% | dentro | 70.48 → 74.01 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.3% | +3.4% | dentro | 71.61 → 74.01 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.1% | +3.5% | dentro | 71.47 → 74.01 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.0% | +4.4% | dentro | 70.91 → 74.01 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.2% | +4.2% | dentro | 71.00 → 74.01 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | +4.5% | dentro | 70.82 → 74.01 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +2.5% | dentro | 72.24 → 74.01 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 72.12 → 74.01 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 73.26 → 74.01 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | +4.0% | dentro | 71.19 → 74.01 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | +9.6% | dentro | 67.55 → 74.01 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | +8.3% | dentro | 68.31 → 74.01 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +2.7% | dentro | 72.08 → 74.01 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.9% | +2.4% | dentro | 72.26 → 74.01 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | +2.1% | dentro | 72.46 → 74.01 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -0.3% | dentro | 74.23 → 74.01 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | +0.7% | dentro | 73.50 → 74.01 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.5% | +5.7% | dentro | 70.01 → 74.01 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.9% | -0.5% | dentro | 74.40 → 74.01 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.4% | +0.0% | dentro | 80.70 → 80.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.6% | +4.7% | fuera | 77.10 → 80.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +7.3% | fuera | 75.20 → 80.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +7.5% | fuera | 75.04 → 80.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +8.0% | fuera | 74.70 → 80.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +13.7% | fuera | 71.00 → 80.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +14.5% | fuera | 70.48 → 80.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.9% | +12.7% | fuera | 71.61 → 80.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.6% | +12.9% | fuera | 71.47 → 80.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | +13.8% | fuera | 70.91 → 80.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.7% | +13.7% | fuera | 71.00 → 80.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.2% | +14.0% | fuera | 70.82 → 80.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.6% | +11.7% | fuera | 72.24 → 80.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +11.9% | fuera | 72.12 → 80.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.9% | +10.2% | dentro | 73.26 → 80.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.1% | +13.4% | fuera | 71.19 → 80.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | +19.5% | fuera | 67.55 → 80.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +18.1% | fuera | 68.31 → 80.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | +12.0% | dentro | 72.08 → 80.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | +11.7% | dentro | 72.26 → 80.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | +11.4% | dentro | 72.46 → 80.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.5% | +8.7% | dentro | 74.23 → 80.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | +9.8% | dentro | 73.50 → 80.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | +15.3% | fuera | 70.01 → 80.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.1% | +8.5% | dentro | 74.40 → 80.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | -0.3% | dentro | 71.00 → 70.77 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.0% | +0.4% | dentro | 70.48 → 70.77 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -1.2% | dentro | 71.61 → 70.77 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.4% | -1.0% | dentro | 71.47 → 70.77 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.5% | -0.2% | dentro | 70.91 → 70.77 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.0% | -0.3% | dentro | 71.00 → 70.77 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -0.1% | dentro | 70.82 → 70.77 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.