AEP historial de movimiento esperado American Electric Power Company, Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas43
Cierre dentro del rango51%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado51%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.6%
Movimiento |real| promedio3.3%
Error medio abs.1.6pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Nov 20 | 32 | 124.72 | ±5.1% | 118.37–131.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Nov 20 | 35 | 127.14 | ±5.5% | 120.11–134.16 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Nov 20 | 37 | 126.13 | ±5.6% | 119.00–133.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Nov 20 | 38 | 125.32 | ±5.5% | 118.47–132.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Nov 20 | 42 | 122.07 | ±6.3% | 114.42–129.72 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Nov 20 | 43 | 122.32 | ±5.9% | 115.05–129.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Nov 20 | 44 | 121.99 | ±6.3% | 114.31–129.66 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Nov 20 | 45 | 121.67 | ±6.3% | 114.02–129.32 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Nov 20 | 46 | 121.39 | ±6.1% | 113.99–128.79 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Nov 20 | 49 | 119.57 | ±6.6% | 111.69–127.44 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Nov 20 | 50 | 119.75 | ±6.3% | 112.15–127.35 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Nov 20 | 58 | 120.02 | ±6.7% | 111.97–128.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Nov 20 | 59 | 120.02 | ±6.7% | 111.97–128.07 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Nov 20 | 60 | 120.51 | ±6.6% | 112.51–128.51 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Nov 20 | 63 | 121.62 | ±7.1% | 112.97–130.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Nov 20 | 64 | 120.77 | ±7.0% | 112.27–129.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Nov 20 | 65 | 121.00 | ±7.3% | 112.15–129.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Nov 20 | 66 | 122.77 | ±7.3% | 113.77–131.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Nov 20 | 67 | 123.66 | ±7.4% | 114.56–132.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Nov 20 | 70 | 123.74 | ±7.4% | 114.54–132.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Nov 20 | 71 | 123.67 | ±7.6% | 114.32–133.02 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Nov 20 | 72 | 126.20 | ±7.5% | 116.75–135.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Nov 20 | 73 | 125.48 | ±7.5% | 116.03–134.93 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Nov 20 | 74 | 124.50 | ±8.0% | 114.53–134.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Nov 20 | 77 | 124.33 | ±7.6% | 114.88–133.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Nov 20 | 78 | 124.61 | ±7.5% | 115.26–133.96 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Nov 20 | 79 | 122.72 | ±7.8% | 113.17–132.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Nov 20 | 80 | 122.43 | ±7.8% | 112.83–132.03 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Nov 20 | 81 | 122.20 | ±8.0% | 112.40–132.00 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Dec 18 | 60 | 124.72 | ±6.9% | 116.17–133.27 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.0% | +0.0% | dentro | 127.14 → 127.14 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 126.13 → 127.14 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.8% | +1.5% | dentro | 125.32 → 127.14 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +4.2% | fuera | 122.07 → 127.14 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.1% | +3.9% | fuera | 122.32 → 127.14 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +4.2% | fuera | 121.99 → 127.14 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +4.5% | fuera | 121.67 → 127.14 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +4.7% | fuera | 121.39 → 127.14 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +6.3% | fuera | 119.57 → 127.14 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +6.2% | fuera | 119.75 → 127.14 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.9% | fuera | 120.02 → 127.14 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.9% | +5.9% | fuera | 120.02 → 127.14 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +5.5% | fuera | 120.51 → 127.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.5% | +4.5% | fuera | 121.62 → 127.14 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.6% | +5.3% | fuera | 120.77 → 127.14 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.1% | fuera | 121.00 → 127.14 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +3.6% | dentro | 122.77 → 127.14 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 123.66 → 127.14 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +2.7% | dentro | 123.74 → 127.14 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +2.8% | dentro | 123.67 → 127.14 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +0.7% | dentro | 126.20 → 127.14 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +1.3% | dentro | 125.48 → 127.14 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +2.1% | dentro | 124.50 → 127.14 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.3% | dentro | 124.33 → 127.14 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.2% | +2.0% | dentro | 124.61 → 127.14 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +3.6% | dentro | 122.72 → 127.14 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +3.8% | dentro | 122.43 → 127.14 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.9% | +4.0% | dentro | 122.20 → 127.14 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.6% | -1.3% | dentro | 121.62 → 120.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -0.6% | dentro | 120.77 → 120.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±1.7% | -0.8% | dentro | 121.00 → 120.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -2.3% | dentro | 122.77 → 120.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -3.0% | fuera | 123.66 → 120.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.2% | -3.0% | fuera | 123.74 → 120.00 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | -3.0% | fuera | 123.67 → 120.00 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | -4.9% | fuera | 126.20 → 120.00 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.6% | -4.4% | fuera | 125.48 → 120.00 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.5% | -3.6% | fuera | 124.50 → 120.00 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.7% | -3.5% | fuera | 124.33 → 120.00 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±2.9% | -3.7% | fuera | 124.61 → 120.00 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.4% | -2.2% | dentro | 122.72 → 120.00 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.8% | -2.0% | dentro | 122.43 → 120.00 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Sep 18 | ±3.7% | -1.8% | dentro | 122.20 → 120.00 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.