ADBE 预期波动历史 Adobe Inc.
每个交易日收盘后，我们记录期权市场对各到期日的定价——均在结果揭晓前留存。到期日过后，实际结果会附记于原始预估值旁。预估值在事后绝不修改。 如何解读这些统计数据 · 记录开始于 Aug 31, 2026
已解决的比较项121
收盘价处于区间内67%
|实际值| 低于预期值67%
平均预期波动幅度±7.9%
平均|实际|波动幅度6.3%
平均绝对误差3.5pt
隐含与已实现波动率，按到期日
每个到期日：琥珀色轮廓框为最接近到期时记录的预期涨跌幅；实心柱为股票实际涨跌幅。柱形下方标注带符号的具体数值。
预期（已记录）实际
已记录（等待结果）
| 快照 | 到期时间 | DTE | 当时现货价 | 预期涨跌幅 | 区间 | 方法 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 246.87 | ±3.7% | 237.77–255.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 244.35 | ±4.6% | 233.05–255.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 240.10 | ±5.3% | 227.45–252.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 235.70 | ±5.4% | 223.03–248.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 242.67 | ±5.9% | 228.40–256.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 240.69 | ±6.4% | 225.19–256.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 232.12 | ±6.8% | 216.27–247.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 237.98 | ±7.0% | 221.38–254.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 238.40 | ±7.2% | 221.22–255.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 237.70 | ±7.4% | 220.10–255.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 241.15 | ±7.8% | 222.30–260.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 239.00 | ±9.7% | 215.70–262.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 238.97 | ±9.8% | 215.67–262.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 249.51 | ±9.4% | 225.98–273.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 249.24 | ±10.0% | 224.37–274.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 252.61 | ±10.2% | 226.93–278.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 250.31 | ±10.2% | 224.74–275.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 257.83 | ±10.7% | 230.28–285.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 264.42 | ±10.8% | 235.79–293.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 251.90 | ±11.8% | 222.20–281.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 243.20 | ±14.7% | 207.50–278.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 253.50 | ±14.4% | 216.90–290.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 256.33 | ±13.9% | 220.60–292.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 266.80 | ±14.0% | 229.35–304.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 267.20 | ±14.0% | 229.75–304.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 281.00 | ±14.4% | 240.57–321.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 246.87 | ±6.0% | 232.09–261.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 244.35 | ±6.5% | 228.45–260.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 240.10 | ±7.2% | 222.70–257.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 235.70 | ±7.4% | 218.22–253.18 | em-1.0 |
已归档快照
| 快照 | 已到期 | 预期值 | 实际值 | 在区间内？ | 现货价 → 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.3% | 区间内 | 244.35 → 245.20 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.1% | 区间内 | 240.10 → 245.20 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.0% | 区间外 | 235.70 → 245.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +1.0% | 区间内 | 242.67 → 245.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 240.69 → 245.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +5.6% | 区间外 | 232.12 → 245.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +3.0% | 区间内 | 237.98 → 245.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +2.9% | 区间内 | 238.40 → 245.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +3.2% | 区间内 | 237.70 → 245.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +1.7% | 区间内 | 241.15 → 245.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 239.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +2.6% | 区间内 | 238.97 → 245.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -1.7% | 区间内 | 249.51 → 245.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -1.6% | 区间内 | 249.24 → 245.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 252.61 → 245.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -2.0% | 区间内 | 250.31 → 245.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -4.9% | 区间内 | 257.83 → 245.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -7.3% | 区间内 | 264.42 → 245.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -2.7% | 区间内 | 251.90 → 245.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +0.8% | 区间内 | 243.20 → 245.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -3.3% | 区间内 | 253.50 → 245.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -4.3% | 区间内 | 256.33 → 245.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -8.1% | 区间内 | 266.80 → 245.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -8.2% | 区间内 | 267.20 → 245.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -12.7% | 区间内 | 281.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -12.7% | 区间内 | 281.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -14.3% | 区间外 | 286.22 → 245.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -16.1% | 区间外 | 292.37 → 245.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.2% | 区间内 | 242.67 → 242.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.7% | 区间内 | 240.69 → 242.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.4% | 区间外 | 232.12 → 242.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | 区间内 | 237.98 → 242.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.6% | 区间内 | 238.40 → 242.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.9% | 区间内 | 237.70 → 242.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.5% | 区间内 | 241.15 → 242.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 239.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.4% | 区间内 | 238.97 → 242.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -2.9% | 区间内 | 249.51 → 242.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -2.8% | 区间内 | 249.24 → 242.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -4.1% | 区间内 | 252.61 → 242.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -3.2% | 区间内 | 250.31 → 242.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.0% | 区间内 | 257.83 → 242.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -8.4% | 区间内 | 264.42 → 242.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -3.8% | 区间内 | 251.90 → 242.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -0.4% | 区间内 | 243.20 → 242.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -4.4% | 区间内 | 253.50 → 242.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -5.5% | 区间内 | 256.33 → 242.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -9.2% | 区间内 | 266.80 → 242.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -9.3% | 区间内 | 267.20 → 242.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 281.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -13.8% | 区间外 | 281.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -15.4% | 区间外 | 286.22 → 242.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -17.1% | 区间外 | 292.37 → 242.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | 区间内 | 237.70 → 237.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -1.4% | 区间内 | 241.15 → 237.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 239.00 → 237.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -0.5% | 区间内 | 238.97 → 237.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -4.7% | 区间内 | 249.51 → 237.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -4.6% | 区间内 | 249.24 → 237.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -5.9% | 区间内 | 252.61 → 237.69 |
结果通过比较记录的价格区间与到期日收盘价得出。各行显示所用方法版本（与当前版本不同时）；当前版本： em-1.0.