ADBE historial de movimiento esperado Adobe Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas121
Cierre dentro del rango67%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado67%
Movimiento esperado promedio±7.9%
Movimiento |real| promedio6.3%
Error medio abs.3.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 246.87 | ±3.7% | 237.77–255.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 244.35 | ±4.6% | 233.05–255.65 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 240.10 | ±5.3% | 227.45–252.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 235.70 | ±5.4% | 223.03–248.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 242.67 | ±5.9% | 228.40–256.95 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 240.69 | ±6.4% | 225.19–256.19 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 232.12 | ±6.8% | 216.27–247.97 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 237.98 | ±7.0% | 221.38–254.58 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 238.40 | ±7.2% | 221.22–255.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 237.70 | ±7.4% | 220.10–255.30 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 241.15 | ±7.8% | 222.30–260.00 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 239.00 | ±9.7% | 215.70–262.30 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 238.97 | ±9.8% | 215.67–262.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 249.51 | ±9.4% | 225.98–273.03 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 249.24 | ±10.0% | 224.37–274.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 252.61 | ±10.2% | 226.93–278.28 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 250.31 | ±10.2% | 224.74–275.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 257.83 | ±10.7% | 230.28–285.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 264.42 | ±10.8% | 235.79–293.05 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 251.90 | ±11.8% | 222.20–281.60 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 243.20 | ±14.7% | 207.50–278.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 253.50 | ±14.4% | 216.90–290.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 256.33 | ±13.9% | 220.60–292.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 266.80 | ±14.0% | 229.35–304.25 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 267.20 | ±14.0% | 229.75–304.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 281.00 | ±14.4% | 240.57–321.43 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 246.87 | ±6.0% | 232.09–261.64 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 244.35 | ±6.5% | 228.45–260.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 240.10 | ±7.2% | 222.70–257.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 235.70 | ±7.4% | 218.22–253.18 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.3% | dentro | 244.35 → 245.20 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +2.1% | dentro | 240.10 → 245.20 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.0% | fuera | 235.70 → 245.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.1% | +1.0% | dentro | 242.67 → 245.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 240.69 → 245.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.1% | +5.6% | fuera | 232.12 → 245.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +3.0% | dentro | 237.98 → 245.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.5% | +2.9% | dentro | 238.40 → 245.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.7% | +3.2% | dentro | 237.70 → 245.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +1.7% | dentro | 241.15 → 245.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 239.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | +2.6% | dentro | 238.97 → 245.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | -1.7% | dentro | 249.51 → 245.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -1.6% | dentro | 249.24 → 245.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -2.9% | dentro | 252.61 → 245.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.0% | -2.0% | dentro | 250.31 → 245.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.6% | -4.9% | dentro | 257.83 → 245.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±9.9% | -7.3% | dentro | 264.42 → 245.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.4% | -2.7% | dentro | 251.90 → 245.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | +0.8% | dentro | 243.20 → 245.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.3% | -3.3% | dentro | 253.50 → 245.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -4.3% | dentro | 256.33 → 245.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -8.1% | dentro | 266.80 → 245.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -8.2% | dentro | 267.20 → 245.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.5% | -12.7% | dentro | 281.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -12.7% | dentro | 281.00 → 245.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.8% | -14.3% | fuera | 286.22 → 245.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -16.1% | fuera | 292.37 → 245.20 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 242.67 → 242.27 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +0.7% | dentro | 240.69 → 242.27 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.5% | +4.4% | fuera | 232.12 → 242.27 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.1% | +1.8% | dentro | 237.98 → 242.27 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.4% | +1.6% | dentro | 238.40 → 242.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.0% | +1.9% | dentro | 237.70 → 242.27 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.5% | dentro | 241.15 → 242.27 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 239.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | +1.4% | dentro | 238.97 → 242.27 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.1% | -2.9% | dentro | 249.51 → 242.27 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.4% | -2.8% | dentro | 249.24 → 242.27 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -4.1% | dentro | 252.61 → 242.27 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.2% | -3.2% | dentro | 250.31 → 242.27 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.5% | -6.0% | dentro | 257.83 → 242.27 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.6% | -8.4% | dentro | 264.42 → 242.27 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -3.8% | dentro | 251.90 → 242.27 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -0.4% | dentro | 243.20 → 242.27 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -4.4% | dentro | 253.50 → 242.27 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -5.5% | dentro | 256.33 → 242.27 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -9.2% | dentro | 266.80 → 242.27 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -9.3% | dentro | 267.20 → 242.27 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.9% | -13.8% | fuera | 281.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -13.8% | fuera | 281.00 → 242.27 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.3% | -15.4% | fuera | 286.22 → 242.27 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -17.1% | fuera | 292.37 → 242.27 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 237.70 → 237.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.8% | -1.4% | dentro | 241.15 → 237.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 239.00 → 237.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 238.97 → 237.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.6% | -4.7% | dentro | 249.51 → 237.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.0% | -4.6% | dentro | 249.24 → 237.69 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.5% | -5.9% | dentro | 252.61 → 237.69 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.