ABNB histórico de movimento esperado Airbnb, Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo52%
|Real| abaixo do esperado52%
Movimento esperado médio±5.1%
Movimento |real| médio5.1%
Erro médio absoluto3.0pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 177.13 | ±3.4% | 171.17–183.09 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 173.70 | ±3.4% | 167.85–179.55 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 166.50 | ±4.6% | 158.82–174.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 164.79 | ±4.3% | 157.74–171.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 165.87 | ±5.4% | 157.00–174.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 163.07 | ±6.1% | 153.09–173.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 160.75 | ±5.9% | 151.30–170.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 160.39 | ±5.8% | 151.16–169.62 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 164.07 | ±6.0% | 154.22–173.92 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 162.10 | ±6.1% | 152.28–171.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 160.47 | ±6.8% | 149.50–171.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 162.50 | ±7.4% | 150.47–174.53 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 162.41 | ±7.4% | 150.39–174.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 165.89 | ±7.7% | 153.19–178.59 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 166.22 | ±7.9% | 153.17–179.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 165.31 | ±8.1% | 151.91–178.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 167.38 | ±8.5% | 153.13–181.63 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 168.32 | ±8.6% | 153.87–182.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 170.65 | ±8.5% | 156.15–185.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 170.19 | ±8.7% | 155.39–184.99 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 167.65 | ±9.1% | 152.32–182.97 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 169.63 | ±9.2% | 154.08–185.18 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 174.61 | ±9.3% | 158.38–190.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 181.94 | ±9.1% | 165.44–198.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 181.94 | ±9.1% | 165.44–198.44 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 185.25 | ±9.1% | 168.47–202.03 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 177.13 | ±4.7% | 168.88–185.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 173.70 | ±5.6% | 164.00–183.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 166.50 | ±6.3% | 156.07–176.93 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 164.79 | ±6.0% | 154.94–174.64 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.1% | +0.0% | dentro | 173.70 → 173.70 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +4.3% | fora | 166.50 → 173.70 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.9% | +5.4% | fora | 164.79 → 173.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.3% | +4.7% | fora | 165.87 → 173.70 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.0% | +6.5% | fora | 163.07 → 173.70 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.2% | +8.1% | fora | 160.75 → 173.70 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +8.3% | fora | 160.39 → 173.70 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.8% | +5.9% | fora | 164.07 → 173.70 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.3% | +7.2% | fora | 162.10 → 173.70 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +8.2% | fora | 160.47 → 173.70 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +6.9% | fora | 162.50 → 173.70 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.5% | +7.0% | fora | 162.41 → 173.70 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +4.7% | dentro | 165.89 → 173.70 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.1% | +4.5% | dentro | 166.22 → 173.70 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.3% | +5.1% | dentro | 165.31 → 173.70 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +3.8% | dentro | 167.38 → 173.70 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 168.32 → 173.70 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.5% | +1.8% | dentro | 170.65 → 173.70 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | +2.1% | dentro | 170.19 → 173.70 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.4% | +3.6% | dentro | 167.65 → 173.70 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | +2.4% | dentro | 169.63 → 173.70 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.6% | -0.5% | dentro | 174.61 → 173.70 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -4.5% | dentro | 181.94 → 173.70 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -4.5% | dentro | 181.94 → 173.70 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -6.2% | dentro | 185.25 → 173.70 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.5% | -5.7% | dentro | 184.23 → 173.70 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.7% | -5.1% | dentro | 182.96 → 173.70 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.3% | -5.6% | dentro | 184.00 → 173.70 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.7% | +0.0% | dentro | 165.87 → 165.87 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +1.7% | dentro | 163.07 → 165.87 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | +3.2% | fora | 160.75 → 165.87 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.7% | +3.4% | fora | 160.39 → 165.87 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | +1.1% | dentro | 164.07 → 165.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 162.10 → 165.87 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.5% | +3.4% | dentro | 160.47 → 165.87 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +2.1% | dentro | 162.50 → 165.87 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.4% | +2.1% | dentro | 162.41 → 165.87 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 165.89 → 165.87 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | -0.2% | dentro | 166.22 → 165.87 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.5% | +0.3% | dentro | 165.31 → 165.87 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -0.9% | dentro | 167.38 → 165.87 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.7% | -1.5% | dentro | 168.32 → 165.87 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -2.8% | dentro | 170.65 → 165.87 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.8% | -2.5% | dentro | 170.19 → 165.87 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -1.1% | dentro | 167.65 → 165.87 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -2.2% | dentro | 169.63 → 165.87 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.6% | -5.0% | dentro | 174.61 → 165.87 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -8.8% | fora | 181.94 → 165.87 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.5% | -8.8% | fora | 181.94 → 165.87 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.8% | -10.5% | fora | 185.25 → 165.87 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.7% | -10.0% | fora | 184.23 → 165.87 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -9.3% | fora | 182.96 → 165.87 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.0% | -9.9% | fora | 184.00 → 165.87 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.5% | +0.2% | dentro | 162.10 → 162.43 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.6% | +1.2% | dentro | 160.47 → 162.43 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | -0.0% | dentro | 162.50 → 162.43 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 162.41 → 162.43 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±4.8% | -2.1% | dentro | 165.89 → 162.43 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -2.3% | dentro | 166.22 → 162.43 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±5.2% | -1.7% | dentro | 165.31 → 162.43 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.