AAPL histórico de movimento esperado Apple Inc.
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas194
Fechar dentro do intervalo74%
|Real| abaixo do esperado74%
Movimento esperado médio±3.0%
Movimento |real| médio2.3%
Erro médio absoluto1.4pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 342.82 | ±0.4% | 341.60–344.04 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 342.98 | ±1.6% | 337.50–348.45 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 340.85 | ±1.9% | 334.52–347.18 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 336.32 | ±2.5% | 328.05–344.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 340.55 | ±2.7% | 331.27–349.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 336.57 | ±2.8% | 327.02–346.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 333.95 | ±3.0% | 324.00–343.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 332.95 | ±3.2% | 322.40–343.50 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 333.30 | ±3.4% | 321.93–344.68 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 330.20 | ±3.7% | 317.85–342.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 339.84 | ±4.7% | 323.92–355.76 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 339.96 | ±4.7% | 324.04–355.88 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 338.75 | ±4.9% | 322.18–355.32 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 335.00 | ±5.0% | 318.15–351.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 336.82 | ±5.4% | 318.75–354.90 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 332.59 | ±5.6% | 313.89–351.29 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 331.64 | ±5.8% | 312.56–350.71 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 332.81 | ±5.8% | 313.36–352.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 332.50 | ±6.0% | 312.55–352.45 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 325.88 | ±6.4% | 304.91–346.86 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 315.86 | ±6.6% | 295.15–336.56 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 316.44 | ±6.7% | 295.14–337.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 320.01 | ±6.7% | 298.69–341.33 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 319.91 | ±6.7% | 298.58–341.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 327.98 | ±6.6% | 306.28–349.68 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 324.46 | ±6.9% | 302.08–346.83 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 324.78 | ±7.0% | 302.15–347.40 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 317.06 | ±6.9% | 295.21–338.91 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 342.82 | ±1.5% | 337.82–347.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 342.98 | ±2.0% | 336.07–349.88 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 342.98 → 342.96 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 340.85 → 342.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fora | 336.32 → 342.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 340.55 → 342.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +1.9% | dentro | 336.57 → 342.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | +2.7% | fora | 333.95 → 342.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +3.0% | fora | 332.95 → 342.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | +2.9% | dentro | 333.30 → 342.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +3.9% | fora | 330.20 → 342.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.4% | fora | 336.32 → 340.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 340.55 → 340.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 336.57 → 340.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | +2.1% | fora | 333.95 → 340.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | +2.4% | fora | 332.95 → 340.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 333.30 → 340.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | +3.3% | fora | 330.20 → 340.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 336.32 → 336.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | -1.1% | fora | 340.55 → 336.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 336.57 → 336.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 333.95 → 336.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 332.95 → 336.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 333.30 → 336.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.0% | dentro | 330.20 → 336.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 339.84 → 336.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 339.96 → 336.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 338.75 → 336.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 335.00 → 336.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 336.82 → 336.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.59 → 336.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 331.64 → 336.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.81 → 336.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.50 → 336.64 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.7% | +3.3% | dentro | 325.88 → 336.64 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.9% | +6.6% | fora | 315.86 → 336.64 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.2% | +6.4% | fora | 316.44 → 336.64 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +5.2% | dentro | 320.01 → 336.64 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +5.2% | dentro | 319.91 → 336.64 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.1% | +2.6% | dentro | 327.98 → 336.64 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +3.8% | dentro | 324.46 → 336.64 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.4% | +3.7% | dentro | 324.78 → 336.64 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±6.3% | +6.2% | dentro | 317.06 → 336.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±0.3% | +0.0% | dentro | 336.57 → 336.67 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.0% | +0.8% | dentro | 333.95 → 336.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.4% | +1.1% | dentro | 332.95 → 336.67 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±1.9% | +1.0% | dentro | 333.30 → 336.67 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±2.3% | +2.0% | dentro | 330.20 → 336.67 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.7% | -0.9% | dentro | 339.84 → 336.67 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 07 | ±3.7% | -1.0% | dentro | 339.96 → 336.67 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 332.95 → 332.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.1% | -0.1% | dentro | 333.30 → 332.89 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±1.7% | +0.8% | dentro | 330.20 → 332.89 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.3% | -2.0% | dentro | 339.84 → 332.89 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.3% | -2.1% | dentro | 339.96 → 332.89 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 05 | ±3.5% | -1.7% | dentro | 338.75 → 332.89 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 333.30 → 333.69 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.1% | +1.1% | dentro | 330.20 → 333.69 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 339.84 → 333.69 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.1% | -1.8% | dentro | 339.96 → 333.69 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.3% | -1.5% | dentro | 338.75 → 333.69 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±3.5% | -0.4% | dentro | 335.00 → 333.69 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.