AAPL historial de movimiento esperado Apple Inc.
Cada día de negociación, tras el cierre, registramos lo que el mercado de opciones estaba descontando — por vencimiento, antes de conocerse el resultado. Cuando un vencimiento finaliza, el resultado se anota junto a la estimación original. Las estimaciones nunca se revisan a posteriori. Cómo interpretar estas estadísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparaciones resueltas200
Cierre dentro del rango74%
|Real| por debajo de lo esperado74%
Movimiento esperado promedio±3.4%
Movimiento |real| promedio2.5%
Error medio abs.1.5pt
Implícita vs realizada, por vencimiento
Para cada vencimiento: el contorno ámbar es el movimiento esperado registrado más cerca del vencimiento; la barra sólida es lo que la acción hizo realmente. Los valores con signo aparecen bajo las barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Registrado actualmente (pendiente de resultado)
| Instantánea | Vence | DTE | Precio entonces | Movimiento esperado | Rango | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 19 | 0 | 342.87 | ±0.1% | 342.36–343.38 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 19 | 3 | 342.82 | ±1.5% | 337.82–347.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 19 | 5 | 342.98 | ±2.0% | 336.07–349.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 19 | 6 | 340.85 | ±2.3% | 333.12–348.57 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 19 | 10 | 336.32 | ±2.7% | 327.25–345.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 19 | 11 | 340.55 | ±2.8% | 330.88–350.23 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 19 | 12 | 336.57 | ±3.1% | 326.27–346.87 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 19 | 13 | 333.95 | ±3.1% | 323.62–344.27 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 19 | 14 | 332.95 | ±3.4% | 321.65–344.25 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 21 | 2 | 342.87 | ±1.5% | 337.57–348.17 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 21 | 5 | 342.82 | ±2.2% | 335.12–350.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 21 | 7 | 342.98 | ±2.4% | 334.90–351.06 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 21 | 8 | 340.85 | ±2.6% | 331.93–349.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 21 | 12 | 336.32 | ±3.1% | 326.05–346.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 21 | 13 | 340.55 | ±3.3% | 329.23–351.88 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 21 | 14 | 336.57 | ±3.5% | 324.72–348.42 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 21 | 15 | 333.95 | ±3.5% | 322.10–345.80 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 342.87 | ±2.2% | 335.22–350.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 342.82 | ±2.8% | 333.14–352.49 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 342.98 | ±3.0% | 332.83–353.13 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 340.85 | ±3.1% | 330.35–351.35 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 336.32 | ±3.5% | 324.62–348.02 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 340.55 | ±3.7% | 328.02–353.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 336.57 | ±3.8% | 323.89–349.24 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 333.95 | ±3.9% | 321.07–346.82 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 332.95 | ±4.0% | 319.70–346.20 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 333.30 | ±4.2% | 319.33–347.28 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 330.20 | ±4.5% | 315.45–344.95 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 339.84 | ±5.3% | 321.74–357.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 339.96 | ±5.3% | 321.86–358.06 | em-1.0 |
Instantáneas resueltas
| Instantánea | Vencido | Esperado | Real | ¿Dentro del rango? | Precio → cierre |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.4% | +0.2% | dentro | 342.82 → 343.46 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.6% | +0.1% | dentro | 342.98 → 343.46 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±1.9% | +0.8% | dentro | 340.85 → 343.46 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.5% | +2.1% | dentro | 336.32 → 343.46 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.7% | +0.9% | dentro | 340.55 → 343.46 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±2.8% | +2.0% | dentro | 336.57 → 343.46 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.0% | +2.8% | dentro | 333.95 → 343.46 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.2% | +3.2% | dentro | 332.95 → 343.46 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.4% | +3.0% | dentro | 333.30 → 343.46 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±3.7% | +4.0% | fuera | 330.20 → 343.46 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +1.1% | dentro | 339.84 → 343.46 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.7% | +1.0% | dentro | 339.96 → 343.46 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±4.9% | +1.4% | dentro | 338.75 → 343.46 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.0% | +2.5% | dentro | 335.00 → 343.46 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.4% | +2.0% | dentro | 336.82 → 343.46 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.6% | +3.3% | dentro | 332.59 → 343.46 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +3.6% | dentro | 331.64 → 343.46 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±5.8% | +3.2% | dentro | 332.81 → 343.46 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.0% | +3.3% | dentro | 332.50 → 343.46 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.4% | +5.4% | dentro | 325.88 → 343.46 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +8.7% | fuera | 315.86 → 343.46 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +8.5% | fuera | 316.44 → 343.46 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.3% | fuera | 320.01 → 343.46 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.7% | +7.4% | fuera | 319.91 → 343.46 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.6% | +4.7% | dentro | 327.98 → 343.46 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +5.9% | dentro | 324.46 → 343.46 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.0% | +5.8% | dentro | 324.78 → 343.46 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | +8.3% | fuera | 317.06 → 343.46 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±0.2% | -0.0% | dentro | 342.98 → 342.96 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.1% | +0.6% | dentro | 340.85 → 342.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±1.9% | +2.0% | fuera | 336.32 → 342.96 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.2% | +0.7% | dentro | 340.55 → 342.96 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.4% | +1.9% | dentro | 336.57 → 342.96 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.6% | +2.7% | fuera | 333.95 → 342.96 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±2.7% | +3.0% | fuera | 332.95 → 342.96 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.0% | +2.9% | dentro | 333.30 → 342.96 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 14 | ±3.4% | +3.9% | fuera | 330.20 → 342.96 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.1% | +1.4% | fuera | 336.32 → 340.97 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.5% | +0.1% | dentro | 340.55 → 340.97 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±1.8% | +1.3% | dentro | 336.57 → 340.97 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.1% | +2.1% | fuera | 333.95 → 340.97 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.3% | +2.4% | fuera | 332.95 → 340.97 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±2.6% | +2.3% | dentro | 333.30 → 340.97 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 12 | ±3.0% | +3.3% | fuera | 330.20 → 340.97 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.3% | +0.1% | dentro | 336.32 → 336.64 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.0% | -1.1% | fuera | 340.55 → 336.64 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 336.57 → 336.64 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±1.8% | +0.8% | dentro | 333.95 → 336.64 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.0% | +1.1% | dentro | 332.95 → 336.64 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.4% | +1.0% | dentro | 333.30 → 336.64 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.8% | +2.0% | dentro | 330.20 → 336.64 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -0.9% | dentro | 339.84 → 336.64 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -1.0% | dentro | 339.96 → 336.64 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | -0.6% | dentro | 338.75 → 336.64 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.2% | +0.5% | dentro | 335.00 → 336.64 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.7% | -0.1% | dentro | 336.82 → 336.64 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.9% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.59 → 336.64 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.5% | dentro | 331.64 → 336.64 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.1% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.81 → 336.64 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±5.3% | +1.2% | dentro | 332.50 → 336.64 |
Los resultados comparan el rango registrado con el precio de cierre en el día de expiración. La versión del método se muestra por fila cuando difiere; actual: em-1.0.