AA histórico de movimento esperado Alcoa Corporation
A cada dia útil, após o fechamento, registramos o que o mercado de opções estava precificando — por expiração, antes de o resultado ser conhecido. Quando uma expiração passa, o resultado é registrado ao lado da estimativa original. As estimativas nunca são revisadas após o fato. Como interpretar estas estatísticas · registrando desde Aug 31, 2026
Comparações resolvidas121
Fechar dentro do intervalo40%
|Real| abaixo do esperado40%
Movimento esperado médio±8.1%
Movimento |real| médio9.4%
Erro médio absoluto3.1pt
Implícita vs. realizada, por vencimento
Para cada expiração: o contorno âmbar é o movimento esperado registrado mais próximo do vencimento; a barra sólida é o que a ação realmente fez. Os valores com sinal aparecem abaixo das barras.
esperado (registrado)real
Atualmente registado (a aguardar resultado)
| Snapshot | Expira | DTE | Spot na época | Movimento esperado | Intervalo | Método |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19 | Oct 23 | 4 | 41.67 | ±4.6% | 39.73–43.60 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 41.56 | ±5.3% | 39.37–43.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 40.08 | ±7.6% | 37.02–43.15 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 23 | 10 | 41.49 | ±8.1% | 38.15–44.84 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 23 | 14 | 42.20 | ±8.4% | 38.66–45.74 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 23 | 15 | 42.83 | ±8.8% | 39.06–46.59 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 23 | 16 | 42.55 | ±8.7% | 38.84–46.26 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 23 | 17 | 43.17 | ±8.9% | 39.34–46.99 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 23 | 18 | 43.49 | ±9.3% | 39.45–47.53 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 23 | 21 | 42.00 | ±9.4% | 38.06–45.94 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 23 | 22 | 42.06 | ±9.6% | 38.01–46.12 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 23 | 30 | 44.71 | ±12.4% | 39.16–50.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 23 | 31 | 45.45 | ±11.9% | 40.06–50.84 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 23 | 32 | 44.80 | ±13.7% | 38.66–50.94 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 23 | 35 | 45.44 | ±13.1% | 39.49–51.38 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 23 | 36 | 47.20 | ±12.8% | 41.13–53.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 23 | 37 | 46.42 | ±13.7% | 40.05–52.78 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 23 | 38 | 46.88 | ±14.6% | 40.02–53.74 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 23 | 39 | 46.95 | ±14.6% | 40.09–53.81 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 23 | 42 | 48.29 | ±14.4% | 41.34–55.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 23 | 43 | 48.66 | ±15.6% | 41.06–56.26 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 23 | 44 | 50.56 | ±15.2% | 42.89–58.24 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 23 | 45 | 51.74 | ±14.9% | 44.02–59.47 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 23 | 46 | 50.03 | ±14.0% | 43.01–57.06 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 23 | 49 | 50.42 | ±14.1% | 43.30–57.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 23 | 50 | 51.13 | ±15.5% | 43.19–59.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 19 | Oct 30 | 11 | 41.67 | ±6.7% | 38.87–44.48 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 30 | 14 | 41.56 | ±7.6% | 38.40–44.73 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 30 | 16 | 40.08 | ±9.2% | 36.39–43.77 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 30 | 17 | 41.49 | ±8.7% | 37.90–45.09 | em-1.0 |
Snapshots encerrados
| Snapshot | Expirado | Esperado | Real | Dentro do intervalo? | Spot → fechamento |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±0.6% | -0.3% | dentro | 41.56 → 41.45 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | +3.4% | dentro | 40.08 → 41.45 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.2% | -0.1% | dentro | 41.49 → 41.45 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±6.9% | -1.8% | dentro | 42.20 → 41.45 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.2% | -3.2% | dentro | 42.83 → 41.45 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.8% | -2.6% | dentro | 42.55 → 41.45 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±7.7% | -4.0% | dentro | 43.17 → 41.45 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.2% | -4.7% | dentro | 43.49 → 41.45 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.1% | -1.3% | dentro | 42.00 → 41.45 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±8.8% | -1.4% | dentro | 42.06 → 41.45 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.8% | -7.3% | dentro | 44.71 → 41.45 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±10.6% | -8.8% | dentro | 45.45 → 41.45 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -7.5% | dentro | 44.80 → 41.45 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±11.8% | -8.8% | dentro | 45.44 → 41.45 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.0% | -12.2% | fora | 47.20 → 41.45 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -10.7% | dentro | 46.42 → 41.45 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -11.6% | dentro | 46.88 → 41.45 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±12.6% | -11.7% | dentro | 46.95 → 41.45 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -14.2% | fora | 48.29 → 41.45 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.4% | -14.8% | fora | 48.66 → 41.45 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.2% | -18.0% | fora | 50.56 → 41.45 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.6% | -19.9% | fora | 51.74 → 41.45 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.1% | -17.2% | fora | 50.03 → 41.45 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.0% | -17.8% | fora | 50.42 → 41.45 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±13.7% | -18.9% | fora | 51.13 → 41.45 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.1% | -19.1% | fora | 51.26 → 41.45 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -19.3% | fora | 51.36 → 41.45 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 16 | ±14.2% | -17.2% | fora | 50.04 → 41.45 |
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | dentro | 42.20 → 42.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -1.5% | dentro | 42.83 → 42.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -0.8% | dentro | 42.55 → 42.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -2.2% | dentro | 43.17 → 42.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -3.0% | dentro | 43.49 → 42.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.5% | dentro | 42.00 → 42.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.3% | dentro | 42.06 → 42.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -5.6% | dentro | 44.71 → 42.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -7.2% | dentro | 45.45 → 42.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.8% | dentro | 44.80 → 42.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -7.1% | dentro | 45.44 → 42.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -10.6% | fora | 47.20 → 42.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -9.1% | dentro | 46.42 → 42.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -10.0% | dentro | 46.88 → 42.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -10.1% | dentro | 46.95 → 42.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -12.6% | fora | 48.29 → 42.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -13.3% | fora | 48.66 → 42.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -16.5% | fora | 50.56 → 42.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -18.4% | fora | 51.74 → 42.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -15.7% | fora | 50.03 → 42.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -16.3% | fora | 50.42 → 42.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -17.5% | fora | 51.13 → 42.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -17.7% | fora | 51.26 → 42.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -17.8% | fora | 51.36 → 42.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -15.7% | fora | 50.04 → 42.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | dentro | 42.00 → 41.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -0.3% | dentro | 42.06 → 41.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -6.2% | dentro | 44.71 → 41.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -7.7% | fora | 45.45 → 41.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -6.4% | dentro | 44.80 → 41.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -7.7% | fora | 45.44 → 41.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -11.1% | fora | 47.20 → 41.95 |
Os resultados comparam o intervalo registado com o preço de fecho no dia de expiração. A versão do método é indicada por linha quando difere; atual: em-1.0.