AA riwayat pergerakan yang diperkirakan Alcoa Corporation
Setiap hari perdagangan setelah penutupan, kami mencatat apa yang diperhitungkan pasar opsi — per expirasi, sebelum hasilnya diketahui. Ketika suatu expirasi berlalu, hasilnya ditulis di samping estimasi awal. Estimasi tidak pernah direvisi setelah fakta terjadi. Cara membaca statistik ini · merekam sejak Aug 31, 2026
Perbandingan terselesaikan93
Tutup dalam rentang33%
|Aktual| di bawah ekspektasi33%
Rata-rata pergerakan yang diperkirakan±7.3%
Rata-rata pergerakan |aktual|9.3%
Rata-rata kesalahan absolut2.9pt
Implied vs realized, per kedaluwarsa
Untuk setiap expirasi: garis tepi berwarna kuning adalah pergerakan yang diharapkan yang dicatat paling dekat dengan expirasi; batang padat adalah pergerakan saham yang sebenarnya terjadi. Nilai bertanda dicetak di bawah batang.
ekspektasi (direkam)aktual
Sedang dicatat (menunggu hasil)
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | DTE | Spot saat itu | Pergerakan yang diharapkan | Rentang | Metode |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16 | Oct 16 | 0 | 41.56 | ±0.6% | 41.30–41.81 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 16 | 2 | 40.08 | ±6.2% | 37.60–42.56 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 13 | Oct 16 | 3 | 41.49 | ±6.2% | 38.91–44.08 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 09 | Oct 16 | 7 | 42.20 | ±6.9% | 39.28–45.12 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 08 | Oct 16 | 8 | 42.83 | ±7.2% | 39.77–45.90 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 07 | Oct 16 | 9 | 42.55 | ±7.8% | 39.24–45.85 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 06 | Oct 16 | 10 | 43.17 | ±7.7% | 39.83–46.52 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 05 | Oct 16 | 11 | 43.49 | ±8.2% | 39.91–47.07 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 02 | Oct 16 | 14 | 42.00 | ±8.1% | 38.59–45.40 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 01 | Oct 16 | 15 | 42.06 | ±8.8% | 38.34–45.77 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 23 | Oct 16 | 23 | 44.71 | ±10.8% | 39.87–49.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 22 | Oct 16 | 24 | 45.45 | ±10.6% | 40.63–50.27 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 21 | Oct 16 | 25 | 44.80 | ±11.8% | 39.50–50.10 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 18 | Oct 16 | 28 | 45.44 | ±11.8% | 40.09–50.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 17 | Oct 16 | 29 | 47.20 | ±12.0% | 41.54–52.85 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 16 | Oct 16 | 30 | 46.42 | ±13.4% | 40.20–52.65 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 15 | Oct 16 | 31 | 46.88 | ±12.6% | 40.97–52.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 14 | Oct 16 | 32 | 46.95 | ±12.6% | 41.03–52.87 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 11 | Oct 16 | 35 | 48.29 | ±13.0% | 42.02–54.55 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 10 | Oct 16 | 36 | 48.66 | ±13.4% | 42.16–55.16 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 09 | Oct 16 | 37 | 50.56 | ±13.2% | 43.91–57.23 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 08 | Oct 16 | 38 | 51.74 | ±13.6% | 44.69–58.80 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 07 | Oct 16 | 39 | 50.03 | ±13.1% | 43.50–56.57 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 04 | Oct 16 | 42 | 50.42 | ±13.0% | 43.85–56.98 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 03 | Oct 16 | 43 | 51.13 | ±13.7% | 44.12–58.15 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 02 | Oct 16 | 44 | 51.26 | ±14.1% | 44.03–58.49 | em-1.0 |
| Sep 01 | Oct 16 | 45 | 51.36 | ±14.2% | 44.06–58.67 | em-1.0 |
| Aug 31 | Oct 16 | 46 | 50.04 | ±14.2% | 42.94–57.14 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 16 | Oct 23 | 7 | 41.56 | ±5.3% | 39.37–43.75 | em-1.0 |
| Oct 14 | Oct 23 | 9 | 40.08 | ±7.6% | 37.02–43.15 | em-1.0 |
Snapshot yang telah diselesaikan
| Snapshot | Kedaluwarsa | Diharapkan | Aktual | Dalam kisaran? | Spot → penutupan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±0.5% | +0.0% | di dalam | 42.20 → 42.20 |
| Oct 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.1% | -1.5% | di dalam | 42.83 → 42.20 |
| Oct 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±2.9% | -0.8% | di dalam | 42.55 → 42.20 |
| Oct 06, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.3% | -2.2% | di dalam | 43.17 → 42.20 |
| Oct 05, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±3.9% | -3.0% | di dalam | 43.49 → 42.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.3% | +0.5% | di dalam | 42.00 → 42.20 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±4.8% | +0.3% | di dalam | 42.06 → 42.20 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.3% | -5.6% | di dalam | 44.71 → 42.20 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±7.9% | -7.2% | di dalam | 45.45 → 42.20 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.0% | -5.8% | di dalam | 44.80 → 42.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±8.8% | -7.1% | di dalam | 45.44 → 42.20 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.1% | -10.6% | di luar | 47.20 → 42.20 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±9.9% | -9.1% | di dalam | 46.42 → 42.20 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -10.0% | di dalam | 46.88 → 42.20 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±10.4% | -10.1% | di dalam | 46.95 → 42.20 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.2% | -12.6% | di luar | 48.29 → 42.20 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.3% | -13.3% | di luar | 48.66 → 42.20 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.8% | -16.5% | di luar | 50.56 → 42.20 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±11.9% | -18.4% | di luar | 51.74 → 42.20 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.0% | -15.7% | di luar | 50.03 → 42.20 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.1% | -16.3% | di luar | 50.42 → 42.20 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.4% | -17.5% | di luar | 51.13 → 42.20 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.2% | -17.7% | di luar | 51.26 → 42.20 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±12.6% | -17.8% | di luar | 51.36 → 42.20 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 09 | ±13.0% | -15.7% | di luar | 50.04 → 42.20 |
| Oct 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±0.3% | -0.1% | di dalam | 42.00 → 41.95 |
| Oct 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±1.7% | -0.3% | di dalam | 42.06 → 41.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.3% | -6.2% | di dalam | 44.71 → 41.95 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±6.4% | -7.7% | di luar | 45.45 → 41.95 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -6.4% | di dalam | 44.80 → 41.95 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±7.3% | -7.7% | di luar | 45.44 → 41.95 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.4% | -11.1% | di luar | 47.20 → 41.95 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±8.6% | -9.6% | di luar | 46.42 → 41.95 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -10.5% | di luar | 46.88 → 41.95 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.3% | -10.7% | di luar | 46.95 → 41.95 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.5% | -13.1% | di luar | 48.29 → 41.95 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±9.9% | -13.8% | di luar | 48.66 → 41.95 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.4% | -17.0% | di luar | 50.56 → 41.95 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.6% | -18.9% | di luar | 51.74 → 41.95 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.5% | -16.2% | di luar | 50.03 → 41.95 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±10.7% | -16.8% | di luar | 50.42 → 41.95 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.0% | -18.0% | di luar | 51.13 → 41.95 |
| Sep 02, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.6% | -18.2% | di luar | 51.26 → 41.95 |
| Sep 01, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±11.4% | -18.3% | di luar | 51.36 → 41.95 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Oct 02 | ±12.7% | -16.2% | di luar | 50.04 → 41.95 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.0% | -4.2% | di luar | 44.71 → 42.85 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±4.3% | -5.7% | di luar | 45.45 → 42.85 |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.2% | -4.4% | di dalam | 44.80 → 42.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.8% | -5.7% | di dalam | 45.44 → 42.85 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±5.6% | -9.2% | di luar | 47.20 → 42.85 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±6.3% | -7.7% | di luar | 46.42 → 42.85 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | -8.6% | di luar | 46.88 → 42.85 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±7.2% | -8.7% | di luar | 46.95 → 42.85 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.0% | -11.3% | di luar | 48.29 → 42.85 |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.3% | -11.9% | di luar | 48.66 → 42.85 |
| Sep 09, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±8.6% | -15.3% | di luar | 50.56 → 42.85 |
| Sep 08, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.0% | -17.2% | di luar | 51.74 → 42.85 |
| Sep 07, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.1% | -14.4% | di luar | 50.03 → 42.85 |
| Sep 04, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.0% | -15.0% | di luar | 50.42 → 42.85 |
| Sep 03, 2026 | Sep 25 | ±9.7% | -16.2% | di luar | 51.13 → 42.85 |
Hasil membandingkan rentang yang tercatat dengan harga penutupan pada hari kedaluwarsa. Versi metode ditampilkan per baris jika berbeda; saat ini: em-1.0.